Three years on from the collapse in global demand at the end of 2008, China's capacity to withstand a second slump is constrained by continued reliance on exports and investment as drivers of growth.

　　2008年年底國(guó)際需求的崩潰已經(jīng)過(guò)去三年，中國(guó)仍舊依靠出口和投資來(lái)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，這就限制了它承受國(guó)際需求第二次突然下滑的能力。

　　A two-speed recovery, with China and other emerging markets expanding at a rapid clip while advanced economies limp out of recession, has fostered a belief that China is inoculated from the global economic flu. That is only partly true.

　　發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體蹣跚走出衰退的時(shí)候，中國(guó)和其他新興市場(chǎng)卻在高速擴(kuò)張。這種不同速度的復(fù)蘇讓人相信，中國(guó)已經(jīng)打了預(yù)防針，國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的感冒傳染不到它身上來(lái)。這種想法只對(duì)了一部分。

　　Exports as a percentage of China's gross domestic product have fallen, from 35% in 2007 to 27% in 2010. But that still is high. And exports to the U.S. and European Union still are equal to 10% of GDP, from 13% in 2007. If global trade again takes a hit, the impact on China will be almost as marked as it was in 2008.

　　出口占中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比重已經(jīng)從2007年的35%降至2010年的27%，但仍然很高。對(duì)美國(guó)、歐盟出口占GDP的比重已較2007年的13%有所下降，但仍有10%。如果國(guó)際貿(mào)易再次遭受沖擊，中國(guó)受到的影響差不多將有2008年那么嚴(yán)重。

　　In a positive development, the share of domestic value added in China's exports has continued to creep up. That reflects mainland manufacturers' increased technical competence and reduced reliance on parts imported from abroad. But with China producing more itself, rather than acting merely as a link in the global supply chain, the impact of a slowdown in foreign demand is greater. The latest forecast from UBS China economist Wang Tao envisages a 1.1 percentage point drag on GDP growth from net exports in 2012.

　　Bloomberg News出口占中國(guó)GDP的比重依然較高。圖為8月18日，東京一個(gè)碼頭的工人在中海集裝箱運(yùn)輸有限公司的集裝箱上。一個(gè)好消息是，中國(guó)出口的國(guó)內(nèi)附加值比重一直在持續(xù)緩慢上升。這反映出內(nèi)地制造企業(yè)技術(shù)實(shí)力的提升，及其對(duì)進(jìn)口零部件依賴度的減少。但在中國(guó)更多地自行生產(chǎn)、而不只是充當(dāng)全球供應(yīng)鏈一環(huán)的情況下，外部需求放緩會(huì)造成更大的影響。瑞銀(UBS)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家汪濤的最新預(yù)測(cè)是，凈出口將給2012年GDP增長(zhǎng)速度帶來(lái)1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的拖累。

　　Meanwhile, China's real weakness is that the gap in GDP left by retreating exports has been filled not by a sustainable increase in domestic consumption but by more investment. Consumption has continued to increase at a rapid clip. Retail sales in 2010, for example, rose 15% in real terms. But household consumption is starting from a low base, and with even faster growth in investment, its share in GDP has dipped to 33% in 2010 from 35% in 2007.

　　與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)真正的弱點(diǎn)在于，填補(bǔ)出口回落在GDP中所留缺口的，不是國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，而是投資的增加。消費(fèi)一直在持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)。比如2010年零售額在扣除物價(jià)上漲因素后增長(zhǎng)了15%。但家庭消費(fèi)起點(diǎn)低，而投資增速比消費(fèi)還要快，所以消費(fèi)在GDP中的比重已經(jīng)從2007年的35%下降到2010年的33%。

　　Contrast that with investment, where breakneck acceleration in infrastructure spending in 2009 and real-estate construction in 2010 and 2011 has meant the contribution to GDP increased from 39% in 2007 to 46% in 2010. Diminishing returns from more roads and railways and continued efforts to constrain a real-estate bubble mean the scope for investment to step into the breach a second time if foreign demand disappoints is limited.

　　相比之下，由于2009年基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出、2010年和2011年房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)驚人提速，投資對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)已從2007年的39%增至2010年的46%。新建公路和鐵路回報(bào)越來(lái)越少，政府又持續(xù)采取措施遏制樓市泡沫，所以如果外部需求不及預(yù)期，再次讓投資填補(bǔ)空缺的空間是有限的。

　　China faces the possibility of a second downturn with its fate still wedded to that of the West.

　　中國(guó)面臨著再度陷入低迷的可能，其命運(yùn)仍與西方緊密相連。