Just when the sun seemed to be coming out, storm clouds are gathering on the economic horizon.

　　幾個月前，美國經(jīng)濟的好轉(zhuǎn)速度似乎比經(jīng)濟預(yù)測人士料想的要快。幾乎沒有人預(yù)計到美國經(jīng)濟會迅速反彈，但是，許多人調(diào)高了今年的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期。人們寄希望于私營企業(yè)終于可以雇傭足夠多的員工以使失業(yè)率穩(wěn)步下降（即使不能快速下降）。

　　A couple of months ago, the U.S. economy seemed to be improving faster than economic weathermen had expected. Few anticipated the U.S. would rebound quickly, but many marked up predictions for economic growth this year. The hope was that private employers finally were ready to hire enough to bring unemployment down steadily, even if not rapidly.

　　如果幸運的話，美國經(jīng)濟可能進一步好轉(zhuǎn)。顯然股市正是這么認為的，因為在過去兩年中，標準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)幾乎上漲了一倍。但是，在把雨傘收起來之前，應(yīng)該考慮一下這種風(fēng)險：仍然高達8.9%的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇陷入令人痛苦的緩慢境地。哪些方面可能出現(xiàn)問題呢？

　　With some luck, the U.S. economy still might get better from here. The stock market thinks so: The S&P 500 has nearly doubled in the past two years. But before putting away the umbrellas, consider the threats to a distressingly slow recovery marred by a still-high 8.9% unemployment rate. What could go wrong?

　　第一個值得擔憂的問題是：石油。兩個月前，沒有人預(yù)料到胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)會倒臺，也沒有人想到卡扎菲(Moammar Gadhafi)政權(quán)會搖搖欲墜。利比亞石油供應(yīng)的中斷以及對中東其他地區(qū)不穩(wěn)定局勢的憂慮使油價在過去六個月中每桶上漲了30美元。

　　Worry No. 1: Oil. Two months ago, no one expected Hosni Mubarak would be out of power and Moammar Gadhafi would be struggling to hold on. The disruption of oil supplies from Libya and fear of instability elsewhere in the Middle East have pushed oil prices up $30 a barrel over the past six months.

　　這個問題不足以導(dǎo)致美國經(jīng)濟重新陷入衰退。一個廣泛采用的經(jīng)驗法則是：油價每上漲10美元，將使美國經(jīng)濟增長率被拉低0.2個百分點。在2月初接受《華爾街日報》調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家稱，油價只有在達到每桶125美元之后才會威脅到美國經(jīng)濟的復(fù)蘇。由于越來越重要的布倫特原油價格目前大約在114美元，西德州中質(zhì)油價格則在105美元左右，到目前為止油價還沒有對美國經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成威脅。

　　That's not enough to trigger renewed recession. A widely used rule of thumb says each sustained $10-a-barrel increase in oil prices shaves 0.2 percentage point off U.S. growth. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in early February said oil prices would have to get above $125 a barrel 'to threaten the U.S. recovery.' With the increasingly important Brent benchmark now about $114 and West Texas Intermediate around $105, we're shy of that--so far.

　　是的，美國已經(jīng)不再像從前那么容易受油價波動沖擊。而且沙烏地阿拉伯將向市場注入更多原油以補充利比亞所帶來的供應(yīng)缺口。但是，由于市場不是完全確信沙特王室能夠保持整個國家的團結(jié)，油價還是有繼續(xù)上漲的風(fēng)險，這將會給美國經(jīng)濟帶來傷害。

　　Yes, the U.S. isn't as vulnerable to oil shocks as it once was. Yes, Saudi Arabia will pump more oil to compensate for less from Libya. But with markets not completely sure Saudi royalty can hold the country together, the risk is that oil prices keep rising--and that would hurt.

　　第二個值得擔憂的問題是：富裕國家的政府。經(jīng)濟衰退是由金融力量的失調(diào)引起的。全球政府做出的反應(yīng)（盡管存在這樣或那樣的瑕疵）將此次危機帶來的危害限制在一定范圍內(nèi)。目前所面臨的威脅是政府政策本身將成為問題之源，尤其是財政政策。

　　Worry No. 2: Rich-country governments. The recession was triggered by a disturbance in the financial force. The response of global governments, despite all the flaws, limited the damage. Today's threat is that government policies themselves, particularly fiscal ones, will be the cause of problems.

　　其中的一個風(fēng)險是，負債累累的政府在削減支出或提高稅收方面行動過快，使經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇在穩(wěn)固之前就被消弱了根基。英國政府正在厲行節(jié)儉，通過讓英鎊貶值來提振出口，從而依靠私人部門的就業(yè)來抵消公共部門裁員的影響。就美國而言，這種威脅更多地來自州政府和地方政府削減支出，而不是最終在國會通過的今年的支出預(yù)算案。

　　One risk is that debt-burdened governments move too quickly to cut spending or raise taxes, undercutting the recovery before it can stand on its own. The U.K. is running an experiment in austerity, counting on the private sector (with a boost to exports from a depreciating British pound) to offset public-sector layoffs. In the U.S., the threat is more from state and local government cutbacks than from whatever Congress ends up doing with this year's spending bills.

　　另一個風(fēng)險是，美國和歐洲的政客們不能應(yīng)對更加重大的長期財政問題，促使選民和市場認為他們無法處理好自己分內(nèi)的事務(wù)，并導(dǎo)致長期利率在經(jīng)濟能夠承受之前就上升。

　　Another is that politicians in the U.S. and Europe fail to cope with bigger, long-term fiscal issues, prompting voters and markets to conclude that they can't manage their affairs and triggering an increase in long-term interest rates before the economy can handle them.

　　對美國來說，需要制定一個可靠的計劃來抑制支出和增加收入。在上周舉行的國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的一個論壇上，前任墨西哥央行行長吉列爾莫•奧爾蒂斯(Guillermo Ortiz)抱怨道，美國國內(nèi)還未能就一個可靠的財政整頓計劃達成政治共識，這是全球經(jīng)濟所面臨的最危險的事情之一。對歐洲來說，需要對一個顯而易見的痛苦現(xiàn)實做出反應(yīng)，那就是：當前的這種格局無法維持。共同使用歐元的各個國家的勞動力成本和生產(chǎn)率趨勢各不相同，銀行體系脆弱，對緊縮財政政策的看法非常矛盾，在這樣一個大陸，單一貨幣體系無法順利運行。

　　For the U.S., it's about a credible plan to restrain spending and raise revenue. At an International Monetary Fund forum this week, Guillermo Ortiz, the former Mexican central banker, complained: 'The political consensus in the U.S. has not provided a credible plan for fiscal consolidation and that is one of the greatest dangers for the world economy.' For Europe, it's about responding to a painfully obvious reality: The current setup is unsustainable. A single currency cannot function smoothly on a continent with diverging labor cost and productivity trends, fragile banks and ambivalence about constraining fiscal policies in nations that share the euro.

　　第三個值得擔憂的問題是：新興市場。不錯，他們現(xiàn)在的確趾高氣昂。這些國家的官員們表現(xiàn)出幸災(zāi)樂禍的情緒，并吹噓他們?nèi)绾伪葎e的國家更好地經(jīng)受住了奧爾蒂斯所稱的“北大西洋金融危機”。但這可能滋生出不恰當?shù)尿湴磷詽M情緒。

　　Worry No. 3: Emerging markets. Oh, they're cocky now, their officials bursting with schadenfreude and boasting how much better they withstood what Mr. Ortiz pointedly described as 'the North Atlantic financial crisis.' But that can breed inappropriate complacency.

　　最成功的新興市場經(jīng)濟體——中國及其諸鄰國還有巴西——正面臨著增長速度可能超出其經(jīng)濟承載能力的風(fēng)險，由此導(dǎo)致的后果是通貨膨脹——工資、物價、房地產(chǎn)和其他資產(chǎn)的價格均大幅上漲。

　　The most successful emerging-market economies--China and its neighbors, as well as Brazil--are confronting growth that threatens to outstrip their economies' capacity, the result of which is inflation--in wages and prices, in property and other asset prices.

　　從某種角度看，這是一個為世人所熟悉的問題，但它發(fā)生在新的環(huán)境背景下。美國、歐洲和日本所采用的超低利率可以抵制通貨膨脹和資產(chǎn)泡沫，但這對新興市場來說較難實行。新興市場通常所采取的提高利率的手段會吸引資本流入，也會帶來對本國出口商不利的較高匯率。

　　In one sense, this is a familiar problem. But it comes in a new context. Unusually low interest rates in the U.S., Europe and Japan make the job of resisting inflation and bubbles harder for emerging markets. Raising interest rates, the usual cure, lures capital and brings higher exchange rates with unwelcome effects on exporters.

　　另外，現(xiàn)在新興市場的規(guī)模擴大了很多，這里發(fā)生的事情會影響到別的市場，尤其是中國。正如諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎獲得者邁克爾•斯賓塞(Michael Spence)上周所說的那樣：新興市場在戰(zhàn)后的大部分時間內(nèi)對全球體系的系統(tǒng)性影響一直相對較小，現(xiàn)在，這種美好時代已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。

　　And emerging markets are much bigger now: What happens in China, in particular, doesn't stay in China. As Nobel laureate Michael Spence observed this week, 'The emerging markets enjoyed the luxury for much of the post-war period of having relatively small systemic effects on the global system, and that is what's no longer true.'

　　 過分的擔憂會使人喪失行動能力，這是不健康的。但是，憂患意識能帶來具有適應(yīng)性的行為，能使政策制定者們采取行動降低風(fēng)險，防患于未然?，F(xiàn)在正是這么做的好時候。

　　Worrying too much leads to paralysis. That's not healthy. But it can also prompt adaptive behavior. It can lead policy makers to act to reduce risks before they become realities. This would be a good time for that.