U.S. benchmark oil prices have tumbled since early May, but drivers -- and the economy -- have yet to feel the full benefit.

　　5月上旬以來，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)油價(jià)已經(jīng)大幅下跌，但駕車人──以及整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)──尚未充分感受到油價(jià)下降帶來的好處。

　　While crude-oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are down 38%, ending last week at $82.26 a barrel, the average price of gas at the pump is down just 9% in that time.

　　紐約商品交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange）原油期貨價(jià)格下跌了38%，上周收于每桶82.26美元。但在同一時(shí)期，加油站汽油均價(jià)僅下降9%。

　　That suggests that some forecasts for an easing of pressure on the U.S. economy may be optimistic, for now. Economists estimate that a $10 drop in oil prices translates to an increase of a few tenths of a percent in gross-domestic product growth. But that is largely dependent on the decline in prices flowing through to consumers. With financial markets tumbling due to fears of a second recession in the U.S. and debt contagion in Europe, dropping fuel costs would be a welcome relief for household budgets and business balance sheets.

　　這說明，一些人預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)承受的壓力會(huì)得到緩解，這種看法目前來看可能是過于樂觀了。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家估計(jì)，油價(jià)每跌10美元，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增幅就會(huì)提高零點(diǎn)幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。但這在很大程度上取決于油價(jià)的下跌是否傳導(dǎo)至消費(fèi)者。在金融市場(chǎng)因擔(dān)心美國(guó)二次探底、歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)蔓延而出現(xiàn)動(dòng)蕩之際，燃料價(jià)格的下降對(duì)于家庭財(cái)政和企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表都會(huì)帶來求之不得的緩解。

　　The disparity comes in part because of a quirk in the oil market; U.S. gasoline prices are affected far more by international crude prices, which haven't come down as much as U.S. crude prices. In fact, the gap between international prices and U.S. Nymex oil is at a record high.

　　原油與汽油降價(jià)幅度出現(xiàn)這種差異，部分原因在于石油市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)怪現(xiàn)象：美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格受國(guó)際原油價(jià)格的影響要大得多，而國(guó)際原油價(jià)格的下跌程度還沒有趕上美國(guó)原油價(jià)格的下跌。事實(shí)上，國(guó)際油價(jià)與美國(guó)紐約商品交易所油價(jià)之間的差別已經(jīng)達(dá)到了紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)。

　　Even then, gas prices are still lagging behind. Much of the fuel sold in the U.S., especially on the East Coast, follows the price of Brent crude, which is down 14% since the beginning of May. The Nymex price is primarily a benchmark for some oil in the middle of the U.S.

　　 即便如此，汽油價(jià)格還是沒有趕上原油降價(jià)幅度。美國(guó)很大一部分出售的燃料是跟隨布倫特（Brent）原油價(jià)格走勢(shì)而動(dòng)，尤其是東海岸地區(qū)。從5月初以來，布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌了14%。紐約商品交易所的原油價(jià)格主要是美國(guó)中部地區(qū)部分油價(jià)的基準(zhǔn)。

　　Brent is being held relatively high by strong demand from emerging markets such as China, and lingering worries about turmoil in the Middle East, which could curtail supplies. Refiners have been reluctant to ratchet down prices, hoping to capture as much profit as possible lest prices shoot higher again, said Sander Cohan, principal at energy consultancy ESAI Inc.

　　由于中國(guó)等新興市場(chǎng)需求強(qiáng)勁，而中東亂局可能限制供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂揮之不去，布倫特油價(jià)維持在相對(duì)高的水平。能源咨詢公司ESAI Inc.首席咨詢師科漢（Sander Cohan）說，煉油公司不愿意下調(diào)價(jià)格，希望獲得最大化的利潤(rùn)，以防油價(jià)再度猛漲。

　　'Typically, the retailer will raise prices in front of rising crude and be more reluctant to lower prices' when it drops, he said.

　　他說，一般來講，零售商會(huì)在原油價(jià)格上漲的時(shí)候漲價(jià)，而當(dāng)原油價(jià)格下跌的時(shí)候就不那么愿意降價(jià)了。

　　Some consumers have noticed.

　　一些消費(fèi)者注意到了這一現(xiàn)象。

　　"I don't understand how the oil price can fluctuate so much, and yet the price of gas has just not changed,' says Ritch Blasi, a 57-year-old telecom marketer from Middlesex, N.J. 'If a barrel of crude drives the price, there's a lot of different things that happened between that crude and when it goes into my car. And something in there is messed up."

　　新澤西州Middlesex的57歲電信業(yè)市場(chǎng)人員布拉西（Ritch Blasi）說，我不理解，怎么原油價(jià)格如此波動(dòng)，而汽油價(jià)格根本就沒有變化；如果說價(jià)格是由原油推動(dòng)的，那么從原油到加入我汽車中的汽油這個(gè)過程中就有很多不一樣的事情發(fā)生；這當(dāng)中肯定有什么東西出了問題。

　　A lag may be expected, but this time around it is far more pronounced. In the second half of 2008, for example, when oil slumped 68%, gasoline prices fell 61%. Regular-grade retail gasoline was at $3.58 a gallon last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prices remain 33% higher than this time last year, while crude is just 11% higher.

　　汽油價(jià)格跌幅不及原油或許是在人們意料之中，但這一次的差別要顯著得多。比如在2008年下半年，原油價(jià)格下跌68%，汽油價(jià)格下跌61%。能源情報(bào)署（Energy Information Administration）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周常規(guī)級(jí)零售汽油價(jià)格為每加侖3.58美元，仍比去年同期高出33%，而原油價(jià)格同比僅上漲11%。

　　Many suggest that crude prices may be unlikely to fall much further, removing hopes for further relief for the economy.

　　很多人提出，原油價(jià)格可能不太可能進(jìn)一步大幅下跌。這樣一來，經(jīng)濟(jì)承受的壓力就無望進(jìn)一步緩解。

　　In a shift from recent years, when investment flows and prices of other assets were guiding oil-price projections, analysis of supply and demand is regaining its importance. The continued thirst for oil in China and other countries has become a crucial part of that.

　　在近幾年，為原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)提供指引的曾是投資資金流和其他資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格?，F(xiàn)在有所不同，供需分析正變得越來越重要。中國(guó)和其他國(guó)家的持續(xù)原油渴求是這種分析當(dāng)中的一個(gè)至關(guān)重要的部分。

　　Nymex prices have hewed close to $80 in recent trading. Tim Evans, an oil analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, said prices near current levels are reasonably balanced given the current outlook for oil supply and demand, a view shared by several market watchers.

　　紐約商品交易所原油價(jià)格最近已經(jīng)逼近80美元每桶的關(guān)口?；ㄆ炱谪浺朁c(diǎn)（Citi Futures Perspective）石油分析師伊萬斯(Tim Evans)說，考慮到當(dāng)前的石油供需展望，當(dāng)前水平附近的價(jià)格基本處于均衡水平。多位市場(chǎng)觀察者也持這種觀點(diǎn)。

　　J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects oil demand to grow by as much as 1.2 million barrels a day this year, despite worries that the U.S. is downshifting to another recession, with turmoil in the U.S. and Europe cutting just 250,000 barrels a day from its earlier forecast.

　　 雖然人們擔(dān)心美國(guó)正在進(jìn)入又一次衰退，但摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.）預(yù)計(jì)，今年每日石油需求最多將增加120萬桶。歐美的亂局只讓該公司把原來的每日需求預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)了25萬桶。

　　Only a major cratering in the global economy is likely to bring either Brent or Nymex oil prices back down to the lows seen in 2008, says Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank.

　　德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）首席能源分析師謝明斯基（Adam Sieminski）說，只有全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入大崩潰，才有可能讓布倫特油價(jià)或紐約商品交易所油價(jià)跌回至2008年的低位。