When stock markets swooned in 2008, Alan Mantell lost about 15% on his investments.

　　當(dāng)股市在2008年慘烈下跌時(shí)，艾倫•曼特爾（Alan Mantell）損失了大約15%的投資。

　　Now, the multimillionaire real-estate investor and business consultant is more insulated from market quakes, after putting more money into cash and private businesses and less into U.S. stocks.

　　現(xiàn)在，這位從事房地產(chǎn)投資及商業(yè)顧問業(yè)務(wù)的億萬富豪把較多資金放在現(xiàn)金及私人企業(yè)上，較少投資于美國股市，從而使自己更好地規(guī)避股市震蕩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　"Today, my first principle of investing is do no harm, don’t make major mistakes,' said Mr. Mantell, president of New York-based Mantell Advisory LLC. 'It‘s not about chasing returns anymore. For me, it's about real diversification and not being so dependent on traditional equities."

　　曼特爾是總部位于紐約的投資顧問公司Mantell Advisory LLC.的總裁。他說，“現(xiàn)在，我投資的首要原則就是做到無害，不犯大錯(cuò)誤。投資不再是一味追求回報(bào)。對我來說，投資就是要做到真正的多樣化，不那么依賴傳統(tǒng)的股市。”

　　After taking big risks and big losses in 2008, wealthy investors have become the Cassandras of the financial world, hunkering down with cash, gold, farmland and other haven investments. Their 'fear portfolios’ largely protected them from last week's market gyrations, when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index spiked up and down more than four percent a day for four days straight.

　　在2008年承受了巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和重大損失之后，富有的投資者都成了金融界的兇事預(yù)言家，他們保守地選擇現(xiàn)金、黃金、農(nóng)地及其他具有避險(xiǎn)作用的投資工具。這種“謹(jǐn)慎的投資組合”基本上使他們在最近的市場動(dòng)蕩中幸免于難，當(dāng)時(shí)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)連續(xù)四個(gè)交易日每天起落4%以上。

　　Yet they are also imposing a national price. Recoveries are often led by the investing and risk-taking of the wealthy, and the rich have traditionally been more optimistic about the economy than everyday investors. Yet current surveys show the rich are among the most pessimistic about the economy. Rather than investing in stocks or companies that can create jobs, they are betting on continued volatility and slow growth by hoarding cash, gold and other safety assets.

　　然而，他們的這種行為會(huì)讓整個(gè)國家付出代價(jià)。市場反彈常常是在富人的投資活動(dòng)和承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的意愿推動(dòng)下出現(xiàn)的，一般來說，富人對經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法比普通投資者要樂觀一些。然而，當(dāng)前的調(diào)查顯示，富人屬于對經(jīng)濟(jì)抱最悲觀看法的那部分人。他們不是把錢投在能夠創(chuàng)造就業(yè)的股票或公司上，而是通過囤積現(xiàn)金、黃金和其他安全的資產(chǎn)，押注市場會(huì)繼續(xù)動(dòng)蕩及緩慢增長。

　　"If the wealthy run into the proverbial bunker, then the economy will falter,“ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody‘s Analytics, a division of Moody's Corp. 'A loss of faith in our economy can quickly become self-reinforcing and self-fulfilling."

　　穆迪公司(Moody's Corp)旗下穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)師馬克•贊迪(Mark Zandi)說，“如果富人們選擇躲避起來，那么經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)岌岌可危。對我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)失去信心很快會(huì)演變成一種自我強(qiáng)化和自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的惡性循環(huán)。”

　　Not all the rich are playing it safe, of course. Spectrem Group, the Chicago-based research firm, found that a third of millionaire investors planned to add to their stock holdings in July, just before the markets faltered. Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles, like many wealth managers, encouraged its clients to increase their stock holdings to 40% from 35% earlier this year, saying that '2011 will be another year where stocks outperform bonds.' And they still could. A spokesman for Bel Air didn't return calls for comment.

　　當(dāng)然，并非所有的富人在投資時(shí)都謹(jǐn)小慎微?？偛课挥谥ゼ痈绲难芯抗維pectrem Group發(fā)現(xiàn)，就在市場下挫前，有三分之一的百萬富翁投資者在7月份打算增加股票的持有量。和許多資產(chǎn)管理公司一樣，洛杉磯的Bel Air Investment Advisors在今年早些時(shí)鼓勵(lì)其客戶將持股量從35%增加到40%。該公司稱，2011年又將是股市跑贏債市的一年?，F(xiàn)在這種預(yù)期仍有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。Bel Air的發(fā)言人沒有回電就此事發(fā)表評論。

　　For now, however, the worried wealthy look like the smart money. Their caution signals a sweeping psychological shift from the mid-2000s, when many of the rich took a casino approach to rising markets. In 2008, households with $1 million or more in investible assets lost an average of 30% of their investments, and nearly one-fifth of millionaires lost more than 40%, according to Spectrem Group.

　　 然而，從目前來看，憂心忡忡的富人們表現(xiàn)得就像有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的聰明投資者。他們的謹(jǐn)慎行為顯示了一種從2000-2010年中期開始的勢不可擋的心理變化，當(dāng)時(shí)的許多富人以賭博的心態(tài)在上升的股市中搏擊。根據(jù)Spectrem Group的資料，2008年，擁有100萬美元以上可投資資產(chǎn)的家庭平均損失了30%的投資，近五分之一的百萬富翁損失了超過40%的投資。

　　Now, the wealthy are more focused on preserving their fortunes than increasing them. Michael Sonnefeldt, the founder of Tiger 21, a New York-based investment club for multimillionaires, said that his members now hold an average of about 14% of their assets in cash, about double that of the mid-2000s. Tiger members have an average of about 5% of their investments in gold, although some members have more than 20%.

　　現(xiàn)在，富人們更關(guān)心的是保持而不是增加他們的財(cái)富?？偛课挥诩~約的億萬富豪投資俱樂部Tiger 21的創(chuàng)始人邁克爾•索納菲爾德(Michael Sonnefeldt)稱，目前他的會(huì)員平均持有大約14%的現(xiàn)金，約為2000-2010年中期的兩倍。在該俱樂部會(huì)員的投資中，黃金平均占5%左右，不過有一些會(huì)員的黃金持有量超過了20%。

　　"Our members battened down the hatches two or three years ago, and they're still battened,' Mr. Sonnefeldt said. 'Right now, it's easier to save a buck than make a buck. So our members have taken a lot of risk off the table."

　　索納菲爾德說，“我們的會(huì)員兩三年前就未雨綢繆地封倉了，現(xiàn)在他們還在嚴(yán)陣以待。眼下省錢比掙錢容易。因此，我們的會(huì)員剔除了很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。”

　　That may have cost them in the form of lower returns in 2009 and 2010. A survey by the Institute for Private Investors found that investors with investible assets of $30 million or more earned an 11.3% return in 2010, compared with a 15% gain for the S&P 500 Index.

　　他們?yōu)榇烁冻龅拇鷥r(jià)可能表現(xiàn)在2009和2010年較低的投資回報(bào)上。私人投資者學(xué)院（Institute for Private Investors）進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，擁有3000萬美元以上可投資資產(chǎn)的投資者2010年的回報(bào)率為11.3%，而標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)同期上漲了15%。

　　Tommy Gallagher, a wealthy investor and former Wall Street executive, said he was kicking himself last year as stocks rallied and his safer investments earned weak returns. He came close to putting more money into stocks, but "luckily avoided the temptation."

　　曾任華爾街管理人士的湯米•加拉赫(Tommy Gallagher)是一位富有的投資者。他說，去年股市上揚(yáng)了，他側(cè)重于安全的投資僅帶來微薄的回報(bào)，他為此而埋怨自己。他差一點(diǎn)就把更多的錢投入股市了，但他抵制住了這種誘惑。

　　"It was making me crazy all year,' he says. 'Who wants to be the schmuck at the party who's not making any money while everyone else is making money."

　　他說，“這種落差讓我一整年都懊惱不已。當(dāng)你參加聚會(huì)時(shí)，其他人都掙錢了，只有你沒掙到任何錢，誰想成為這樣的笨蛋？”

　　Gregory Curtis, chairman and founder of Greycourt, a Pittsburgh-based wealth-management firm, said he and his clients never really believed in the recovery story, because it relied on a large liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve, rather than stronger economic fundamentals.

　　總部位于匹茲堡的資產(chǎn)管理公司Greycourt的董事長及創(chuàng)始人格里高利•柯蒂斯(Gregory Curtis)說，他和他的客戶從來都不真正相信所謂的反彈行情，因?yàn)檫@主要是依靠美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Federal Reserve)注入的大量流動(dòng)性，而不是受強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面驅(qū)動(dòng)。

　　"I'm sure there were some wealthy families who were drinking the Bernanke Kool-aid and got burned,' he said. 'But I don't know many families in that boat."

　　他說，“我敢肯定有些富人家庭盲目輕信了貝南克(Bernanke)的話，然后引火上身。但我所知道的這樣的家庭不多。”

　　Mr. Curtis said many clients were calling in this week to seek information. But they were calm and mostly looking for opportunities. "There was not the panic that we heard in their voices in 2008," he said.

　　柯蒂斯說，本周有很多客戶打電話來詢問消息。但他們都很鎮(zhèn)靜，基本上都是在尋找機(jī)會(huì)。他們的語氣中沒有2008年時(shí)的那種恐慌。

　　Deborah Midanek, a turnaround specialist and former mortgage specialist who has large investments, said she largely gave up on stocks after 2008. She didn't lose much in the crisis, thanks to her bets on commodities. But she said it was a defining moment for her and many of her wealthy friends. She now owns farm land and real estate. More than 10% of her portfolio is in cash, "which is huge for me."

　　擁有大量投資的黛博拉•米德納柯(Deborah Midanek)是一位扭虧轉(zhuǎn)盈專家，原先還是一位抵押貸款專家。她說，在2008年之后，她基本上就放棄了股市。她在那場危機(jī)中沒有虧損多少，這多虧了她在大宗商品市場的投資。但她說，這場危機(jī)對她和她的許多有錢朋友來說都是一個(gè)決定性時(shí)刻?，F(xiàn)在她持有農(nóng)地和房地產(chǎn)。她的投資組合中有超過10%的現(xiàn)金，她說，“這個(gè)比例對我來說已經(jīng)很高了。”

　　"After 2008, I realized that I know absolutely nothing about the equity markets,' she said. 'I think people like me just said, 'who cares about the stock market, I'm going to invest in something I understand.'"

　　她說，“在2008年之后，我意識到自己對股市完全一無所知。我想，和我一樣的人都會(huì)這么說，‘誰還去關(guān)注股市？我要投資我能弄明白的東西。’”

　　She adds, however, that stock prices fell so much on Monday that she couldn't resist buying shares. "I bought stock in just one company. I sit on their board, so I understand it."

　　然而，她補(bǔ)充說，最近股價(jià)下跌了那么多，以至于她忍不住買了一些股票。她說，“我就買了一家公司的股票。我是這家公司董事會(huì)的成員，所以我了解它。”