Doubts are mounting about the health of China's property market, Beijing's ability to control inflation and the true extent of government debt. Last week, the central government disclosed that local governments owed debts equal to a quarter of gross domestic product. It's hard to imagine a large chunk of those borrowings won't turn sour.

　　中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康狀況、北京能不能控制通貨膨脹以及政府債務(wù)的真實(shí)水平，正引起越來(lái)越多的懷疑。中央政府上周披露，地方政府欠債相當(dāng)于國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的四分之一。很難想象這些債務(wù)中有很大一部分不會(huì)淪為壞賬。

　　All that means bets against China are attracting new attention.

　　Agence-France Presse中國(guó)的一處建筑工地上，工人們正在吃午餐。因?yàn)檫@一切，怎樣做空中國(guó)，正在吸引新的關(guān)注。

　　Popular places to profit from a negative bet on China have gotten crowded. In recent months, some hedge funds have earned big money after borrowing shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, many with auditing or governance problems, in order to profit from their subsequent fall.

　　依靠做空中國(guó)獲利的熱門途徑已經(jīng)人滿為患。一些對(duì)沖基金借入赴美上市中國(guó)公司（其中很多都存在審計(jì)或治理問(wèn)題）的股票以圖在這些股票后來(lái)的下跌過(guò)程中獲利，結(jié)果在近幾個(gè)月賺了大錢。

　　Several say the easy money has been made. More to the point, these stock bets aren't really a play on China's broader economic health but rather on specific company woes.

　　一些人說(shuō)，這些容易賺到的錢已經(jīng)被人賺了。更重要的是，做空這些股票利用的概念實(shí)際上不是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體狀況，而是具體的公司危機(jī)。

　　Some investors are shorting exchange-traded funds that invest in China's heavily restricted yuan-denominated 'A-share' markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen─that is, selling borrowed securities to profit from their fall. But the underlying A shares are battered, with the main index off nearly 20% its post-financial crisis highs of August 2009. Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares are more accessible for shorts, some of whom have taken negative positions on the Hang Seng Index or individual stocks, but the market there for Chinese shares is also pretty beaten down.

　　一部分投資者正在做空那些投資于中國(guó)滬深A(yù)股市場(chǎng)的交易所交易基金。A股市場(chǎng)以人民幣計(jì)價(jià)，受到嚴(yán)格限制。做空的具體辦法是借入證券賣出，利用其跌勢(shì)獲利。但作為這些證券基礎(chǔ)資產(chǎn)的A股已經(jīng)受到?jīng)_擊，主要股指較2009年8月份達(dá)到的金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最高水平下跌將近20%?？疹^做空赴港上市中國(guó)公司股票更加便利，其中一部分人已經(jīng)針對(duì)恒生指數(shù)(Hang Seng Index)或個(gè)股建立了空頭頭寸，但這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的中國(guó)股也已經(jīng)被壓得很低。

　　However, there are other ways to profit from a China implosion. While stocks have sagged, currencies and commodities subject to the country's huge influence over global demand are still hovering at levels that suggest nothing is wrong.

　　不過(guò)要利用中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰獲利還有其他辦法。雖然股市不振，但貨幣和大宗商品行情取決于中國(guó)對(duì)全球需求的巨大影響力，它們的價(jià)格仍然處在顯示一切平安的水平。

　　The Australian dollar has soared 75% against the U.S. dollar from lows set during the global financial crisis, in large part because of Chinese demand for the country's iron ore, coal, gas and other resources. It remains surprisingly close to its all-time highs, even as commodity prices have fallen back.

　　和全球金融危機(jī)時(shí)期的低點(diǎn)相比，澳大利亞元對(duì)美元飆升75%，這在很大程度上是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)對(duì)澳大利亞鐵礦石、煤炭、天然氣和其他資源的需求。在大宗商品價(jià)格已經(jīng)回落的時(shí)候，澳元仍然出人意料地接近于歷史最高水平。

　　The Canadian dollar could be another, less obvious way to play a Chinese slowdown, particularly for those feeling gloomy about the U.S. and Europe and therefore expect weak demand for Chinese exports.

　　加拿大元也可以成為利用中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩獲利的具體途徑，只是這個(gè)途徑不那么顯眼。如果對(duì)美國(guó)和歐洲持悲觀態(tài)度，因此預(yù)計(jì)對(duì)中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品需求將會(huì)疲軟，做空加元就更為適合。

　　Like Australia, Canada would suffer from a drop in Chinese consumption of its oil, gas and minerals. If China sees both exports and imports fall off, it will have less money to buy Canadian government debt, too. That could depress the Canadian dollar, which still trades about 27% above its financial-crisis lows against the U.S. dollar.

　　和澳大利亞一樣，如果中國(guó)的石油、天然氣和礦產(chǎn)消耗量減少，加拿大也會(huì)承受痛苦。如果中國(guó)的進(jìn)出口雙雙下降，那么它用來(lái)購(gòu)買加拿大國(guó)債的資金也會(huì)減少。目前對(duì)美元仍較金融危機(jī)低點(diǎn)高出27%左右的加元，可能就會(huì)因此受到打壓。

　　A bet against the Canadian dollar is a bit cheaper than one against its Australian counterpart, in part because Canadian interest rates aren't as high, a main cost factor in pricing currency bets such as swaps and options.

　　看空加元比看空澳元的代價(jià)要更低一些，原因之一是加拿大的利率沒(méi)那么高，利率是為掉期和期權(quán)等貨幣押注活動(dòng)定價(jià)的主要成本因素。

　　Then there's copper. China is the No. 1 consumer of the red metal, which is used for pipes and wires in buildings. That makes it a proxy play on Chinese real-estate. On Friday, three-month copper prices fell as low as $9,345 a metric ton in London, down from $9,429 a ton Thursday, after the release of a soft Chinese purchasing managers index.

　　還有銅。中國(guó)是這種紅色金屬的頭號(hào)消費(fèi)大國(guó)，建筑物中的管道和電線都需要用到銅。銅也因此成為中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)指標(biāo)。較為疲弱的中國(guó)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)發(fā)布后，倫敦三個(gè)月期銅價(jià)格上周五最低跌至每噸9,345美元，低于周四的每噸9,429美元。

　　But prices remain more than double their levels from late 2008. And the last time China's Purchasing Managers Index was at current sluggish levels of around 50, copper was closer to $7,000 a ton, notes Patrick Perret-Green, a Singapore-based strategist for Citigroup.

　　但目前的銅價(jià)仍是2008年末的兩倍多?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)(Citigroup)駐新加坡策略師佩雷特-格林(Patrick Perret-Green)指出，上一次中國(guó)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)處在目前的低迷水平50左右時(shí)，銅價(jià)更接近每噸7,000美元。

　　Bets that rely on a China slowdown rippling through the corporate world are another avenue. Hugh Hendry, who runs Eclectica Asset Management in London, has taken an unusual short-China position by buying up credit-default swaps on Japanese companies he believes would suffer from a slowdown in exports to China, now Japan's biggest trading partner.

　　做空中國(guó)的另一種途經(jīng)是押注中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)減速會(huì)波及企業(yè)界。經(jīng)營(yíng)倫敦資產(chǎn)管理公司Eclectica Asset Management的亨得利(Hugh Hendry)建立了不同尋常的做空中國(guó)的頭寸，大舉買進(jìn)了那些他認(rèn)為會(huì)受到日本向中國(guó)出口減速影響的日本公司的信用違約掉期。中國(guó)目前是日本最大的貿(mào)易伙伴。

　　Perhaps the longest shot is betting on a fall in China's currency. That play has recently picked up some fans willing to defy the conventional wisdom that the yuan can only go up against the dollar. Bankers say hedge funds are buying cheap positions that will score huge profits if the yuan suddenly falls. But China's currency isn't freely convertible, and Beijing retains a lot of scope─ $3 trillion in currency reserves, or the equivalent of 51% of GDP─to manipulate the exchange rate if it needs to. It's easy to envision a scenario where China's economy suffers while the currency doesn't budge. As one banker put it, these bets are cheap to make for a reason.

　　勝算最小的也許是押注人民幣下跌。押注人民幣下跌的交易最近也吸引了一些人，他們?cè)敢馓魬?zhàn)認(rèn)為人民幣兌美元只會(huì)升值的大眾看法。銀行業(yè)人士說(shuō)，對(duì)沖基金正在以低廉的成本建立做空人民幣的頭寸，如果人民幣突然下跌，這些頭寸將獲得暴利。但人民幣目前不可自由兌換，中國(guó)政府在必要時(shí)有很大的余地來(lái)控制匯率，其外匯儲(chǔ)備高達(dá)3萬(wàn)億美元，相當(dāng)于中國(guó)GDP的51%。不難想象，即使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)受挫，人民幣匯率也很可能不會(huì)受到影響。正如一位銀行業(yè)人士說(shuō)的，押注人民幣下跌的成本很低，這也是有原因的。

　　China shorts have been on a roll for over a year now. Hedge-fund manager James Chanos took a public beating early last year for challenging China's economic fundamentals, and asserting that it was in the midst of a 'credit-driven property bubble.' There's a lot more people agreeing with him these days.

　　過(guò)去一年多來(lái)，看空中國(guó)的人不斷增多。對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理查諾斯(James Chanos)去年初因質(zhì)疑中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面遭到公開(kāi)抨擊，他斷言中國(guó)處于受信貸推動(dòng)的房產(chǎn)泡沫中。近來(lái)有更多的人同意他的觀點(diǎn)。

　　They may not all be right. The negative China buzz could turn out to be a passing phase, and the chance to make money as a short has passed.

　　他們的觀點(diǎn)可能并非完全正確。有關(guān)中國(guó)的負(fù)面?zhèn)髀効赡茏罱K只是暫時(shí)的，做空中國(guó)來(lái)獲利的機(jī)遇也許已經(jīng)過(guò)去。

　　Indeed, some analysts argue that Chinese stocks are so beaten down that it's time for a rally. Royal Bank of Scotland predicts the MSCI-China index could jump as much as 80% through 2012 as Beijing shifts toward growth policies ahead of a change in China's leadership next year.

　　其實(shí)，有些分析師堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為，中國(guó)股票價(jià)格已經(jīng)被壓得很低，現(xiàn)在是觸底反彈的時(shí)候了。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)預(yù)測(cè)，摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際中國(guó)指數(shù)(MSCI-China index)2012年可大漲至多80%，因?yàn)樵诿髂曛袊?guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子換屆之前，北京方面會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策。

　　China proved naysayers wrong many times in the past. Even if things turn bad, it may take longer to happen than some might think. An investor who's right at the wrong time could lose a lot of money waiting to be vindicated.

　　中國(guó)曾在過(guò)去多次證明那些唱空中國(guó)的人錯(cuò)了。而即使中國(guó)的狀況真的變壞，其過(guò)程可能也比一些人所認(rèn)為的要長(zhǎng)。投資者的看法即便是正確的，但如果時(shí)機(jī)不對(duì)，在坐等自己的看法得到證實(shí)的過(guò)程中，可能就會(huì)賠掉很多錢。

　　Like long-term China bulls, the shorts may need to acquire a knack for patience.

　　跟長(zhǎng)期看好中國(guó)的人一樣，看空者或許應(yīng)該培養(yǎng)出一種技能：耐心。