Urbanization is a cornerstone of China's development strategy. But the relationship between a growing urban population and a sustainable growth path isn't as straightforward as many investors believe.

　　城市化是中國發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的一個基石。但城鎮(zhèn)人口不斷增長與走上可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路之間的關(guān)系，卻不像許多投資者認為的那么直接。

　　China's urbanization, and its beneficial effect on growth, is taken as an article of faith.

　　在這些投資者看來，中國的城市化及其對經(jīng)濟增長的有益影響，是一個不容懷疑的信條。

　　Concerned about a Japan-style collapse in China's property sector? Don't worry, a growing urban population underpins demand for apartments. Worried about China's overreliance on investment as a driver of growth? Fear not, a growing army of city slickers will have higher incomes and consume more.

　　擔心中國樓市像日本那樣崩潰？不用怕，城鎮(zhèn)人口的增長支撐著單元樓房的需求。害怕中國過度依賴投資作為增長動力？別擔心，城市人隊伍將不斷壯大，收入將越來越高，消費也會越來越多。

　　The trend in the official data appears clear enough. China's urban population has grown from 19% of the total in 1980 to 50% in 2010. That is still some way off an urbanization ratio above 70% in many developed countries, so there is more to come. Urban per-capita disposable income in 2010 was more than three times income in rural areas, and 86% of retail sales came from urban areas, so the transition to city life should support higher levels of consumption.

　　官方數(shù)據(jù)里的趨勢相當明顯。中國城鎮(zhèn)人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤褟?980年的19%擴大至2010年的50%。這與很多發(fā)達國家70%以上的城市化率相比仍有一段距離，所以還會進一步提高。2010年城鎮(zhèn)人均可支配收入超過農(nóng)村地區(qū)的三倍，零售銷售總額的86%都來自于城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)，所以，向城市生活的轉(zhuǎn)變應當會支撐更高水平的消費。

　　But as is often the case with China's data, not all is what it seems. The crucial point is that rural residents can move to the city, but without an urban residence permit -- known as an urban hukou -- they are confined to the margins of city life. According to Professor Kam Wing Chan, an expert on China's urbanization at the University of Washington, the share of China's population that has urban residence rights is around 35%, substantially below the 50% of the population that live in the cities.

　　但中國的數(shù)據(jù)常常不能只看表面。關(guān)鍵之處在于農(nóng)村居民可以搬到城市，但在沒有獲得城鎮(zhèn)居住許可（即城鎮(zhèn)戶口）的情況下，他們就只能處于城市生活的邊緣。據(jù)華盛頓大學(University of Washington)中國城市化問題專家陳金永(Kam Wing Chan)估計，城鎮(zhèn)戶籍人口約占中國總?cè)丝诘?5%，明顯低于居住在城市的人口所占比例50%。

　　The 171 million migrant workers who fall into that hole have an average wage of around $3,600 a year, compared with an average of $5,700 for registered urban workers. That is more than they earned in the countryside. But although they might have built China's glittering new residential compounds, living in dormitories in twilight zones on the edges of the city, they are hardly likely to buy an apartment in one of them.

　　這個差距就是為數(shù)1.71億的農(nóng)民工，他們一年的平均工資在3,600美元左右（城鎮(zhèn)戶籍勞動者平均工資5,700美元），高于在農(nóng)村的收入水平。然而，盡管他們可能建起了中國燦爛奪目的新小區(qū)，自己卻住在城郊結(jié)合部的集體宿舍里，不太可能去購買某個新小區(qū)里的單元房。

　　As important, the line between rural and urban hukou status is difficult to cross.

　　同樣重要的是，農(nóng)村和城鎮(zhèn)戶籍之間的界線很難逾越。

　　The children of migrant workers are still excluded from the mainstream of the urban education system, and are marginalized in urban labor markets, even though they were born and grew up in the city. They are more likely to be a source of social unrest than a catalyst for changing China's development model.

　　雖在城市里出生和長大，農(nóng)民工子女仍舊不能進入主流的城鎮(zhèn)教育系統(tǒng)，在城鎮(zhèn)勞動力市場也受到排擠。他們更有可能成為社會不穩(wěn)定的源泉，而不是改變中國發(fā)展模式的催化劑。

　　China's move toward a more urban society is real. But without reform to the hukou system to bring migrants into the mainstream of urban opportunity, a bigger city population won't be the straightforward driver of consumption growth that many take as a given.

　　中國正在轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐粋€越來越“城市”的社會，這是真的。但如果不改革戶口制度，讓農(nóng)民工獲得城鎮(zhèn)主流社會享有的機遇，那么城市人口數(shù)量的增加就不會像很多人認為理所當然的那樣，成為消費增長的直接驅(qū)動器。