Chinese economic data released Tuesday suggest a nation that has long relied on exports is getting more help from domestic demand─a potential positive for the global economy as Europe grapples with its debt crisis and U.S. growth sputters.

　　周二公布的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，這個(gè)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)依靠出口的國(guó)家開(kāi)始更多地受到國(guó)內(nèi)需求的推動(dòng)。在歐洲忙于應(yīng)對(duì)債務(wù)危機(jī)、美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)低迷之際，這對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能是個(gè)利好因素。

　　Chinese data Tuesday, which showed third-quarter gross domestic product up 9.1% from a year earlier after 9.5% growth in the second quarter, came in slightly below analyst expectations of 9.2% growth and raised some concern in markets. Still, the growth rate was generally welcomed by economists who saw it as evidence that China can guide its economy to a soft landing as it tries to quell inflation without seriously hurting growth.

　　中國(guó)周二公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)同比增長(zhǎng)9.1%，而二季度增長(zhǎng)率為9.5%。新出爐的數(shù)據(jù)略低于分析人士預(yù)期的9.2%，引發(fā)了市場(chǎng)一定程度的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。盡管如此，這樣的增長(zhǎng)率仍受到了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的普遍歡迎，他們將此視為中國(guó)在努力遏制通貨膨脹、同時(shí)有能力在不嚴(yán)重?fù)p害增長(zhǎng)的情況下引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸的證據(jù)。

　　It also offered a sign that China's domestic demand is partially making up for softening appetite for China's exports. That could leave China in a better position to weather moderate drops in exports, which have hit its economy hard in the past. It could also mean that China will remain a crucial support for global growth, as its rising consumption feeds demand for raw materials and other goods from around the world.

　　相關(guān)報(bào)道這也表明，中國(guó)出口需求的不斷下滑已經(jīng)部分地在國(guó)內(nèi)需求上得到彌補(bǔ)。這可能使中國(guó)能夠更好地應(yīng)對(duì)出口的小幅下滑。過(guò)去，出口下滑曾給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)造成重大影響。同時(shí)，這也可能意味著隨著中國(guó)不斷增加的消費(fèi)推動(dòng)對(duì)全球原材料和其他商品的需求，中國(guó)將依然是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)重要支撐。

　　China's respectable growth so far this year has come despite a deteriorating environment for its exports. Over the first three quarters, net exports actually reduced the economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point, National Bureau of Statistics Shen Laiyun said on the sidelines of a press briefing on Tuesday.

　　盡管中國(guó)出口行業(yè)面臨的環(huán)境不斷惡化，今年以來(lái)中國(guó)卻實(shí)現(xiàn)了相當(dāng)可觀的增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局新聞發(fā)言人盛來(lái)運(yùn)周二在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)間隙說(shuō)，今年前三季度，凈出口實(shí)際上給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率帶來(lái)了0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的損失。

　　“So far this year, especially in the third quarter, growth in China's imports of goods and services has exceeded export growth,” he said. “This shows that the contribution to the global recovery from China's economy is growing.”

　　盛來(lái)運(yùn)稱(chēng)，今年以來(lái)，尤其在三季度，中國(guó)貨物進(jìn)口的增長(zhǎng)速度要大于出口的增長(zhǎng)速度。這表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)世界的復(fù)蘇做出的貢獻(xiàn)在繼續(xù)增加。

　　China's status as the world's top exporter has long been both a strength and an occasional source of weakness. China's economic growth dipped below 7% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, during the worst of the global financial crisis, sparking worries in a country where growth of 8% or more is generally considered necessary to insure stability among the nation's rapidly urbanizing population.

　　中國(guó)是全球第一大出口國(guó)，這種地位一直以來(lái)既是優(yōu)勢(shì)，有時(shí)也是劣勢(shì)。2008年四季度和2009年一季度，在全球金融危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下降至7%以下，引發(fā)了國(guó)內(nèi)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。在中國(guó)，人們一般認(rèn)為若要確保中國(guó)迅速城市化的人口保持穩(wěn)定，必須要達(dá)到8%或更高的增長(zhǎng)率。

　　Since then, China's policy makers have renewed efforts to promote domestic consumption and have made progress in rebalancing the economy away from exports. The country's current-account surplus─a broad measure of its trade balance favored by economists─was just 2.8% of GDP in the first half of 2011, compared to more than 10% in 2007.

　　此后，中國(guó)決策者重新開(kāi)始努力促進(jìn)內(nèi)需，并且在調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、減少對(duì)出口依賴(lài)方面取得了一定的進(jìn)展。2011年上半年，中國(guó)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余只相當(dāng)于GDP的2.8%，而2007年這一數(shù)字在10%以上。經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用來(lái)衡量中國(guó)貿(mào)易差額的一個(gè)寬泛衡量指標(biāo)。

　　“Even if Western economies slip into a renewed recession, the impact on China's growth should be much smaller than three years ago. China has been much less dependent on external demand,” HSBC economist Qu Hongbing.

　　Reuters溫州一個(gè)工地的工人在搬運(yùn)磚塊。中國(guó)第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速略微放緩至9.1%。匯豐(HSBC)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家屈宏斌說(shuō)，就算西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體滑入新一輪的衰退，對(duì)中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)的影響應(yīng)該也比三年前小很多。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)出口的依賴(lài)度相比三年前已大幅下降。

　　Other indicators on Tuesday signaled positive momentum. China's retail sales in September rose 17.7% from a year earlier, compared with a 17% rise in August. Industrial output growth accelerated unexpectedly in September, up 13.8% from a year earlier, exceeding both August's 13.5% and the 13.3% expected by economists.

　　周二公布的其它經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)說(shuō)明經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)出現(xiàn)積極勢(shì)頭：9月份零售銷(xiāo)售額同比上升17.7%，8月份的同比升幅為17%。9月份工業(yè)增加值意外加速上升，同比升幅達(dá)13.8%，高于8月份13.5%的水平以及經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家給出的13.3%的預(yù)期。

　　“The pickup in industrial production and retail sales are surprising, and reinforce our view that Chna's growth is increasingly driven by domestic demand, which remains strong,” said Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Nomura, in a note.

　　野村證券（Nomura）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家張智威在一份研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道，工業(yè)增加值和零售銷(xiāo)售額的上升出乎意料，這也強(qiáng)化了我們的觀點(diǎn)，即中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)日益受到國(guó)內(nèi)需求的推動(dòng)，而國(guó)內(nèi)需求依然強(qiáng)勁。

　　Still, other indicators suggest potential weakness. HSBC Holdings PLC's purchasing managers index─which measures manufacturing activity and is weighted toward the key small- and medium-sized business sector─showed a third straight month of contraction in September, reflecting pressures among the nation's smaller, privately owned businesses, which have suffered amid tightening credit. An official PMI reading, which is weighted toward major state-owned enterprises, has shown expansion.

　　盡管如此，其它一些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)卻預(yù)示著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能存在弱點(diǎn)。匯豐控股有限公司（HSBC Holdings PLC，簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)：匯豐）編制的中國(guó)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)在9月份連續(xù)第三個(gè)月收縮，這反映了中國(guó)中小民營(yíng)企業(yè)面臨的壓力。信貸緊縮令中小企業(yè)苦苦掙扎。而官方發(fā)布的中國(guó)制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理指數(shù)（PMI）則顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)正在擴(kuò)張。匯豐的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)主要衡量制造業(yè)的情況，側(cè)重于重要的中小企業(yè)。而官方編制的PMI側(cè)重于大型國(guó)有企業(yè)。

　　To be sure, China is not immune to global ills. In the event of a deep global recession, it is far from clear that any uptick in domestic demand would be enough to overcome a prolonged slump in exports.

　　誠(chéng)然，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，中國(guó)也難以幸免。如果全球經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重衰退，那么國(guó)內(nèi)需求的增長(zhǎng)是否足以抵消出口長(zhǎng)期低迷所導(dǎo)致的負(fù)面影響，目前還難以看清。

　　“China's Q3 data confirmed that growth was stable last quarter, but with both exports and real-estate construction likely to slow, a more difficult period lies ahead,” said Mark Williams, an economist with research firm Capital Economics, in a note.

　　研究機(jī)構(gòu)凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威廉姆斯（Mark Williams）在一份研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道，中國(guó)第三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，這一季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是穩(wěn)定的，但由于出口和房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)放緩，未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)可能更加嚴(yán)峻。

　　Mr. Williams says his firm's calculation of China's growth, which uses a measure including such factors as freight traffic and electricity production, suggest third-quarter growth of around 8.4% on an annualized basis. “But the pattern of broadly stable growth over the past couple of quarters is the same,” he said.

　　威廉姆斯說(shuō)，據(jù)凱投宏觀計(jì)算，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年第三季度的增速折合成年率大約為8.4%。該公司在計(jì)算中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速時(shí)參考了貨物運(yùn)輸量和發(fā)電量等指標(biāo)。他又說(shuō)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持了過(guò)去幾個(gè)季度以來(lái)的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。

　　The results divided economists trying to divine whether Beijing will loosen fiscal constraints to spur faster growth or whether it is comfortable to current levels and will stand pat. Mr. Williams from Capital Economics said the central bank is likely to loosen credit controls by the end of the year, and may also cut the level of required reserves in the banking system.

　　第三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家產(chǎn)生了分歧。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家正試圖預(yù)測(cè)：北京究竟是會(huì)放松財(cái)政約束以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)更快增長(zhǎng)，還是會(huì)因?qū)δ壳霸鲩L(zhǎng)水平感到滿(mǎn)意而將繼續(xù)按兵不動(dòng)。威廉姆斯認(rèn)為，到年底前央行可能放松信貸控制，也可能會(huì)降低銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率。

　　But Mr. Zhang, of Nomura, said China's central bank “is likely to keep policy on hold for the rest of 2011 and observe closely how the current global economic slowdown and financial market turmoil affects the domestic economy.”

　　但野村證券的張智威則認(rèn)為，中國(guó)央行在2011年剩下的時(shí)間里可能將維持現(xiàn)行政策不變，并將密切觀察當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩和金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩會(huì)如何影響國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

　　The results came as investors worried about continuing debt problems in Europe and reacted to a Monday sell-off in the U.S. Asian markets ended broadly lower on Tuesday, with Hong Kong's main benchmark index falling 4.2% and Shanghai's falling 2.3%. The yuan also fell against the U.S. dollar in the Chinese over-the-counter markets as well as in Hong Kong.

　　這批經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)公布之時(shí)，正值投資者擔(dān)憂(yōu)歐洲債務(wù)問(wèn)題繼續(xù)惡化并對(duì)周一美國(guó)股市的拋售做出反應(yīng)之際。周二收盤(pán)時(shí)亞洲股市全面走低，香港主要基準(zhǔn)股指跌4.2%，滬指跌2.3%。人民幣對(duì)美元匯率在中國(guó)場(chǎng)外交易市場(chǎng)和香港市場(chǎng)雙雙下跌。