The U.S. economy will have to increasingly rely on exports for growth because of the reluctance of policy makers to use monetary or fiscal policy prescriptions, ITG Investment Research senior economist Steve Blitz said, a formula which poses downside risks.

　　研究機構ITG Investment Research的高級經濟學家布里茨（Steve Blitz）說，美國經濟增長將日益依賴出口拉動，因為決策者不愿使用貨幣或財政政策這類解決問題的方法。這可能會構成經濟下行的風險。

　　The Federal Reserve's closing of its bond-purchase program and the expiration of some stimulus efforts mean an outsized emphasis on selling goods overseas to pull the economy along, Blitz said. U.S. policy makers will have to hope one of its chief economic rivals steps in to pick up the slack.

　　布里茨說，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)結束其債券購買計劃以及一些經濟刺激措施到期意味著想要拉動經濟增長，我們將主要依靠出口。美國的決策者將不得不寄希望于其經濟上的主要競爭對手之一能夠介入，填補其退出造成的空缺。

　　"You've got a contractionary bias going forward now on the monetary and fiscal side," Blitz said in an interview.

　　布里茨在接受采訪時說，無論是貨幣政策還是財政政策，都在偏向緊縮。

　　"How do you keep the economy going? Exports, and that means whether it's directly to China or not, they are certainly the linchpin."

　　布里茨說，如何保持經濟持續(xù)增長？靠出口。這意味著無論是否直接向中國出口，中國肯定是關鍵。

　　With unemployment figures still inflated, Blitz said there are sentiment risks as consumers and businesses both show unease about the state of the economy. Any contraction in hiring or negative surprises have the potential to quickly sour consumers' feelings.

　　由于失業(yè)人數仍在增加，布里茨說，存在這樣一種風險，即消費者和企業(yè)都對經濟狀況表現出不安情緒。一旦招聘出現收縮，或出現任何負面的意外情況，消費者的情緒都有可能迅速變得糟糕。

　　"There's not a lot of cushion or goodwill for the economy to keep people spending if they start to see the economy get worse," he said.

　　布里茨說，如果消費者看到經濟有變糟糕的跡象，那么經濟中并沒有多少緩沖機制或積極的情緒能讓消費者繼續(xù)消費。

　　The political fight over spending and deficits has effectively taken Congress out of the picture when it comes to goosing the economy, and the Fed has signaled it doesn't intend to embark on another round of quantitative easing given current economic indicators. Those positions may have to change, Blitz said, particularly if policy makers are again caught off guard by a deterioration.

　　每當涉及推動經濟發(fā)展時，有關支出和赤字的政治斗爭實際上讓國會迷失了主要方向。美聯儲已暗示，鑒于當前各項經濟指標，其并不打算推出第三輪量化寬松政策。布里茨說，這些政策立場可能會被迫改變，特別是如果經濟形勢惡化令決策者措手不及。

　　"You've got in effect a pulling away of stimulus at the same time no one's really addressing the economy. You've narrowed the sources of growth," Blitz said.

　　布里茨說，事實上，在收回經濟刺激措施的同時卻沒有人在真正解決經濟問題。經濟增長的源泉被限制了。