The U.S. economy will have to increasingly rely on exports for growth because of the reluctance of policy makers to use monetary or fiscal policy prescriptions, ITG Investment Research senior economist Steve Blitz said, a formula which poses downside risks.

　　研究機(jī)構(gòu)ITG Investment Research的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布里茨（Steve Blitz）說，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將日益依賴出口拉動(dòng)，因?yàn)闆Q策者不愿使用貨幣或財(cái)政政策這類解決問題的方法。這可能會(huì)構(gòu)成經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　The Federal Reserve's closing of its bond-purchase program and the expiration of some stimulus efforts mean an outsized emphasis on selling goods overseas to pull the economy along, Blitz said. U.S. policy makers will have to hope one of its chief economic rivals steps in to pick up the slack.

　　布里茨說，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)結(jié)束其債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃以及一些經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施到期意味著想要拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，我們將主要依靠出口。美國(guó)的決策者將不得不寄希望于其經(jīng)濟(jì)上的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手之一能夠介入，填補(bǔ)其退出造成的空缺。

　　"You've got a contractionary bias going forward now on the monetary and fiscal side," Blitz said in an interview.

　　布里茨在接受采訪時(shí)說，無論是貨幣政策還是財(cái)政政策，都在偏向緊縮。

　　"How do you keep the economy going? Exports, and that means whether it's directly to China or not, they are certainly the linchpin."

　　布里茨說，如何保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)？靠出口。這意味著無論是否直接向中國(guó)出口，中國(guó)肯定是關(guān)鍵。

　　With unemployment figures still inflated, Blitz said there are sentiment risks as consumers and businesses both show unease about the state of the economy. Any contraction in hiring or negative surprises have the potential to quickly sour consumers' feelings.

　　由于失業(yè)人數(shù)仍在增加，布里茨說，存在這樣一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，即消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)都對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況表現(xiàn)出不安情緒。一旦招聘出現(xiàn)收縮，或出現(xiàn)任何負(fù)面的意外情況，消費(fèi)者的情緒都有可能迅速變得糟糕。

　　"There's not a lot of cushion or goodwill for the economy to keep people spending if they start to see the economy get worse," he said.

　　布里茨說，如果消費(fèi)者看到經(jīng)濟(jì)有變?cè)愀獾嫩E象，那么經(jīng)濟(jì)中并沒有多少緩沖機(jī)制或積極的情緒能讓消費(fèi)者繼續(xù)消費(fèi)。

　　The political fight over spending and deficits has effectively taken Congress out of the picture when it comes to goosing the economy, and the Fed has signaled it doesn't intend to embark on another round of quantitative easing given current economic indicators. Those positions may have to change, Blitz said, particularly if policy makers are again caught off guard by a deterioration.

　　每當(dāng)涉及推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展時(shí)，有關(guān)支出和赤字的政治斗爭(zhēng)實(shí)際上讓國(guó)會(huì)迷失了主要方向。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已暗示，鑒于當(dāng)前各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，其并不打算推出第三輪量化寬松政策。布里茨說，這些政策立場(chǎng)可能會(huì)被迫改變，特別是如果經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)惡化令決策者措手不及。

　　"You've got in effect a pulling away of stimulus at the same time no one's really addressing the economy. You've narrowed the sources of growth," Blitz said.

　　布里茨說，事實(shí)上，在收回經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施的同時(shí)卻沒有人在真正解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的源泉被限制了。