At first glance, Germany’s decision not to insist on compulsory participation by private lenders in the latest bail-out of Greece may seem like a defeat for Chancellor Angela Merkel and Europe’s largest economy. But appearances can be deceiving. On another, more important level, Germany came out of the latest round of brinkmanship exactly where it may well have wanted to be – with the common currency intact and Germany able to motor forward.

　　乍看上去，德國(guó)不堅(jiān)持要求私人貸方必須參與最新希臘紓困行動(dòng)的決定，對(duì)于該國(guó)總理安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)和這個(gè)歐洲最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言，似乎是一場(chǎng)挫敗。但這種表象可能帶有欺騙性。從另一個(gè)更為重要的層面來(lái)說(shuō)，德國(guó)走出了最新一輪的邊緣政策，且恰恰是在該國(guó)很可能希望的節(jié)點(diǎn)上——共同貨幣安然無(wú)恙，而德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠繼續(xù)迅猛前行。

　　These are heady days for Germany. With its torrid 6.1 percent first-quarter growth rate, it leads the field among industrialised nations. While Barack Obama has been exhorting the US to boost its exports, Germany – with just 82m inhabitants – has less vocally remained the world’s second-largest exporter. That has not only generated a huge current account surplus but has contributed two-thirds of Germany’s economic growth over the past decade.

　　這正是德國(guó)的大好光景。憑借第一季度高達(dá)6.1%的增長(zhǎng)率，德國(guó)在工業(yè)化國(guó)家中獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷。盡管巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)一直在倡導(dǎo)美國(guó)提振出口，但人口僅為8200萬(wàn)的德國(guó)，卻不事張揚(yáng)地保持著全球第二大出口國(guó)的地位。在過(guò)去10年里，這不僅為德國(guó)帶來(lái)了巨額經(jīng)常賬戶盈余，還為德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)了三分之二的增長(zhǎng)。

　　For the first time since 1992, fewer than 3m Germans are unemployed, and inflation – the perennial obsession of the descendants of the Weimar Republic – remains muted. Business people buzz with self-confidence and even a subtler version of the arrogance evident before the integration of East Germany drained $2,000bn from the West and gave rise to the phrase “the sick man of Europe”.

　　1992年以來(lái)，德國(guó)失業(yè)人數(shù)首次降到了300萬(wàn)人以下，而長(zhǎng)期困擾自魏瑪共和國(guó)(Weimar Republic)以降歷屆德國(guó)政府的通脹問(wèn)題，也得到了很好的控制。商界人士信心滿滿，甚至表現(xiàn)出一種不易覺察的傲慢——在兩德統(tǒng)一前，這種傲慢十分明顯。統(tǒng)一耗費(fèi)了西部地區(qū)2萬(wàn)億美元的資金，并創(chuàng)造出了“歐洲病人”這種說(shuō)法。

　　In her approach to the problems of the eurozone’s periphery, Ms Merkel has cleverly triangulated between the antagonism of the populace to bail-outs and the importance to business of doing (almost) whatever it takes to preserve the euro. That the views of the two constituencies diverge should not be a surprise.

　　在解決歐元區(qū)外圍國(guó)家問(wèn)題的策略中，默克爾精明地在德國(guó)普通民眾對(duì)（為他國(guó)）紓困的抵觸情緒與竭盡所能保住歐元對(duì)于商界的重要意義之間，找到了一個(gè)平衡點(diǎn)。這兩個(gè)選民群體的觀點(diǎn)有異也不足為奇。

　　For German workers, the current prosperity has come at a price. Beginning in 2003, then-chancellor Gerhard Schr?der pushed through a massive “Agenda 2010” reform programme that successfully peeled back the German welfare state (among other things, unemployment benefits were pared to encourage work), relaxed stultifying regulatory practices and created a “grand bargain” with workers.

　　對(duì)德國(guó)工人而言，當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮來(lái)之不易。從2003年開始，時(shí)任總理格哈德?施羅德(Gerhard Schr?der)大力推行一項(xiàng)宏大的“2010議程(Agenda 2010)”改革方案，成功地取消了德國(guó)福利國(guó)家制度（此外，為鼓勵(lì)就業(yè)，還降低了失業(yè)救濟(jì)金水平），放松了死板的監(jiān)管實(shí)踐，并與工人們達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)“全面協(xié)議”。

　　That complex labour agreement traded lower wage demands for greater job security, achieved in part through “short work”, under which lay-offs were avoided by workers reducing their hours. Government subsidies made up part – but not all – of the lost wages. But even for those not on short work, wages were sacrificed on the altar of competitiveness. All told, real incomes dropped by 4.5 percent in the past decade, reports the International Labor Organisation. So Germany has been selling more and keeping its citizens employed without the rising standard of living that capitalism provides.

　　這份復(fù)雜的勞工協(xié)議，以更低的薪酬要求換來(lái)了更大的工作保障，在某種程度上這是通過(guò)“短時(shí)工作”來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的——即通過(guò)減少工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)，來(lái)避免裁員情況。工資減少額的一部分（并非全部）由政府補(bǔ)貼加以彌補(bǔ)。但即使那些并非短時(shí)工作的員工，也出于保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的需要而在工資上做出了犧牲?？偠灾瑩?jù)國(guó)際勞工組織(ILO)報(bào)道，過(guò)去10年里工人的實(shí)際收入降低了4.5%。因此，德國(guó)能夠在生活水平?jīng)]有不斷提高（資本主義應(yīng)做到這一點(diǎn)）的情況下，創(chuàng)造更大的出口，并維持國(guó)民的就業(yè)水平。

　　In that context, the opposition of rank-and-file Germans to the bail-outs should not be surprising. Opinion polls regularly show Germans more strongly against helping Greece than the French or Italians. To accommodate that sentiment, Ms Merkel has stood fast on a second, less controversial bail-out requirement: that Greece intensify its efforts at austerity. Meanwhile, in private conversation, most German businessmen argue for a pragmatic emphasis on safeguarding the euro. Some even back transfer payments to ease crushing Greek debt loads. That shouldn’t be surprising either, given the joyride that German exporters have received from the currency, whose value is held down by the poor performance of weaker members. A dissolution of the eurozone would leave German exporters confronted with a far more expensive currency and a less competitive position.

　　在這種背景下，德國(guó)普通民眾反對(duì)紓困便不足為奇。定期民調(diào)顯示，與法國(guó)人或意大利人相比，德國(guó)人對(duì)于救助希臘的反對(duì)更為強(qiáng)烈。為平息民眾的抵觸情緒，默克爾在第二種爭(zhēng)議更小的紓困條件上毫不讓步：希臘應(yīng)加大緊縮力度。同時(shí)，在私下談話中，大多數(shù)德國(guó)商界人士都贊成務(wù)實(shí)地強(qiáng)調(diào)保衛(wèi)歐元的重要性。有些人甚至支持以轉(zhuǎn)移支付來(lái)減輕希臘沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。這一點(diǎn)也不奇怪，因?yàn)槿跣〕蓡T國(guó)的糟糕表現(xiàn)拖低了歐元匯率，令德國(guó)出口商從中受益。歐元區(qū)的解體，將使德國(guó)出口商面對(duì)高昂得多的匯率水平，并影響到他們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)地位。

　　With the euro intact and its members lashed at the hip to Germany, the prospects for Germany’s economy glisten. Over the past decade, German competitiveness (as measured by unit labour costs) has improved by 20 percent while that of weaker European countries has remained flat. That allows German companies not only to out-compete other eurozone countries in world markets; it also provides German exporters with an advantage when selling into other European markets, where 60 percent of German exports go.

　　在歐元完好無(wú)損，而歐元區(qū)國(guó)家在德國(guó)面前受到懲罰之際，德國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景看好。過(guò)去10年間，德國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力（按單位勞動(dòng)力成本衡量）提升了20%，而歐洲弱國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力則原地沒動(dòng)。這不僅使德國(guó)公司在全球市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中擊敗了其它歐元區(qū)國(guó)家，而且使德國(guó)出口商在向歐洲其它市場(chǎng)出口時(shí)占據(jù)了優(yōu)勢(shì)——這些市場(chǎng)占到了德國(guó)總出口的60%。

　　Like other developed nations, Germany faces tough competition from China and its smaller brethren. But apart from its sensible economic policies, the country benefits from the formidable positioning of its manufacturing sector. It benefits as well from a more intangible factor: underlying discipline and drive for success. With that behind her, Ms Merkel’s influence over eurozone policies will continue to be greater than headline writers sometimes like to acknowledge.

　　與其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家一樣，德國(guó)也面臨著來(lái)自中國(guó)及其“小兄弟”們的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。但除了明智的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，德國(guó)還得益于本國(guó)制造業(yè)的強(qiáng)大定位。同時(shí)，德國(guó)也得益于一個(gè)更無(wú)形的因素：根本的紀(jì)律和追求成功的動(dòng)力。憑借這些因素的支持，默克爾在歐元區(qū)政策方面的影響力，仍將比媒體作者們有時(shí)愿意承認(rèn)的更大。