After a tumultuous second quarter, investors could be forgiven for feeling dazed and confused.

　　動蕩的二季度過后，投資者感到茫然和困惑是可以原諒的。

　　While the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the quarter up 0.8%, the positive result belies the whipsaw nature of trading through many financial markets. As the third quarter opens, typically a sluggish trading quarter, investors face the prospect of continued volatility.

　　Bloomberg News二季度紐約證券交易所和納斯達克市場的交易量同比降幅超過30%，這還只是在交投清淡的夏季開始前的情況。圖為紐約證券交易所的交易員。道瓊斯工業(yè)股票平均價格指數(shù)（Dow Jones Industrial Average）在二季度結(jié)束時收漲0.8%，這一積極的結(jié)果掩蓋了許多金融市場交易量大起大落的本質(zhì)。當傳統(tǒng)上交投清淡的第三季度開始時，投資者面臨的前景依然是持續(xù)波動的市場。

　　The oft-repeated trading term “risk on, risk off” is again dominating, with stocks, currencies and commodities moving in response to macro events -- rising and falling as investors became alternately optimistic and despondent about global economic growth, Europe's debt woes, and the impact of Japan's earthquake and tsunami.

　　常被提起的交易術(shù)語“行情看漲，行情看跌”（risk on, risk off）再次主導市場，股票、外匯和大宗商品市場針對宏觀事件相機而動。全球經(jīng)濟增長前景、歐洲債務危機以及日本地震和海嘯帶來的影響令投資者的情緒在樂觀和悲觀間切換，市場也對應上下起伏。

　　The result has been a slump in trading in all financial assets as investors flee to the sidelines. When they do buy, individual investors have been shunning U.S. stocks in favor of bonds. Among the big-money players, hedge funds are moving even faster than usual to quit their positions. As a result, markets are seeing quicker turns in sentiment and making it harder for investors to find trends to ride.

　　其結(jié)果就是，隨著投資者離場觀望，所有金融資產(chǎn)的交易都很低迷。當投資者買入資產(chǎn)時，個人投資者青睞債券回避股票。在資金雄厚的機構(gòu)投資者中，對沖基金比平時更快地平倉。因此，市場情緒波動更為劇烈，投資者更加難以把握趨勢進行投資。

　　"Anytime anyone hears a twig snap in the global markets, everybody runs for the exits," said Tyler Mordy, director of research at money manager Hahn Investment Stewards in Toronto.

　　多倫多的投資機構(gòu)Hahn Investment Stewards的研究主管莫迪（Tyler Mordy）說，在全球市場上，任何時候只要有人聽到風吹草動，每位投資者就趕緊逃離市場。

　　For the Dow, that meant an April rally of nearly 4% was followed by a collapse that lasted through mid-June, taking stocks down 7% and then back-and-forth swings in the final weeks. The Dow finished the quarter at 12414.34, up 94.61 points -- its fourth quarterly gain in a row and eighth out of the past nine.

　　道指在4月份回升了近4%后持續(xù)下挫直到6月中旬，指數(shù)累計下跌7%。6月最后幾周道指上下反復波動。二季度結(jié)束時道指收于12414.34點，漲94.61點。這是道指連續(xù)第四個季度收漲，也是過去九個季度中，第八次收漲。

　　Other markets also saw sharp reversals. Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange slid 16% from a high hit April 29 to finish down 11% for the quarter at $95.42. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note swung from 3.57% in early April down to 2.87% on June 24 before climbing to 3.16% at the end of the quarter. The dollar was on its own roller-coaster against the euro between $1.38 and $1.49.

　　其它市場也呈現(xiàn)了劇烈反轉(zhuǎn)的態(tài)勢。紐約商品交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange）原油期貨價格在4月29日創(chuàng)下新高之后便開始下跌，跌幅達16%。二季度結(jié)束時原油期貨價格下跌11%，至95.42美元。10年期國債收益率從4月初的3.57%跌至6月24日的2.87%，二季度結(jié)束時又再次爬回3.16%。美元兌歐元的匯率走勢則彷佛坐了一趟過山車，其價格在1.38美元至1.49美元之間波動。

　　Trading volumes on New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were down more than 30% in the second quarter from 2010 and this came before the usual summer doldrums kick in. As well, the Federal Reserve on Thursday ended its $600 billion bond-buying program. Some traders believe that without the steadying hand of the Fed, volatility could be on the upswing.

　　二季度紐約證券交易所（New York Stock Exchange）和納斯達克市場的交易量同比降幅超過30%，這還只是在交投清淡的夏季開始前的情況。美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）在周四結(jié)束了其6,000億美元的債券購買計劃。一些交易員認為，如果沒有美聯(lián)儲的支撐，市場波動性可能還會加大。

　　Sentiment swung from optimism about the global expansion in the first quarter to worries about the extent of an economic soft patch that followed a rise in oil prices and the disaster in Japan. During late May and much of June the markets were buffeted daily, and sometimes hourly, by conflicting headlines about the Greek debt crisis.

　　市場情緒也是搖擺不定：一季度市場還對全球擴張感到樂觀，但日本天災和油價上漲之后，市場就對經(jīng)濟增速短期下降的影響感到憂慮。5月下旬和6月大部分時間里，市場每天都會受到希臘債務危機的頭條新聞沖擊，有時甚至每個小時都會受到影響。

　　Sharper-than-usual swings in sentiment can be seen in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data on currency positions, said Jessica Hoversen, currency strategist at MF Global. "The cycles . . . have gotten shorter and shorter," she said, pointing at extremes in bullish and bearish positions.

　　經(jīng)紀商MF Global的外匯策略師哈弗森（Jessica Hoversen）說，市場情緒比平日更為劇烈的波動可以從美國商品期貨交易委員會（Commodity Futures Trading Commission）外匯持倉量數(shù)據(jù)看出。周期持續(xù)時間變得越來越短。這里她指的是多頭極值和空頭極值出現(xiàn)的時間差。

　　Ms. Hoversen looked at the length of time between extremes in the amounts of long and short positions in the dollar against six currencies. Between 2004 and 2009 she counted seven cycles that lasted on average 9 1/2 months. In the past year she counted four cycles that on average lasted less than four months.

　　在美元兌其它六種貨幣中，哈弗森仔細研究了看漲美元的頭寸極值和看跌美元的頭寸極值出現(xiàn)的時間差（即一個周期）。在2004年到2009年之間，她發(fā)現(xiàn)有七個周期的平均持續(xù)時間為9.5個月。在過去一年里，她發(fā)現(xiàn)有四個周期的平均持續(xù)時間不到四個月。

　　These swings are making life difficult for hedge-fund traders.

　　市場的波動讓對沖基金交易員的日子不好過。

　　In commodities, some hedge funds had logged double-digit declines as of mid-June.

　　在大宗商品市場上，截至6月中旬，一些對沖基金的凈值出現(xiàn)了兩位數(shù)的下跌。

　　The lack of interest for riskier investments is perhaps most clear in the renewed exodus of money from U.S. stock funds. During the first four months of 2011, $18 billion shifted into U.S. stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. But in the eight weeks ended June 22, $26 billion flowed right back out the door, according to ICI estimates. Money also poured out of commodity funds at a pace unseen since the height of the financial crisis.

　　市場對風險較大的投資品缺乏興趣可以明顯地從資金再一次大量逃離美國股票型基金看出。據(jù)研究機構(gòu)Investment Company Institute透露，在2011年頭四個月內(nèi)，共有180億美元的資金被轉(zhuǎn)移到美國的股票型基金中。但據(jù)Investment Company Institute估計，在截至6月22日的八周內(nèi)，共計260億美元的資金流出這些基金。大量資金也以金融危機形勢最嚴峻的日子以來未曾見過的速度涌出大宗商品基金。

　　Meanwhile, individual investors continue to prefer bonds, even with interest rates at historically low levels. So far this year, bond funds have hauled in $63 billion, according to the ICI.

　　與此同時，盡管利率處于歷史低位，個人投資者還是偏好債券。據(jù)Investment Company Institute透露，今年以來到目前為止，債券型基金已經(jīng)吸收了630億美元的資金。