When investment bankers start pontificating on Hong Kong's housing and income inequality problems, you know it's a serious problem.

　　當(dāng)投資銀行家都開始以權(quán)威身份談?wù)撓愀鄣淖》亢褪杖氩黄降葐栴}時，你就知道問題有多嚴(yán)重了。

　　A story and accompanying video by Polly Hui in the WSJ explores the problem of subdivided flats in Hong Kong as the government pledges it will address public anger over record house prices and reassess land policy. J.P.Morgan has helpfully crunched the numbers in a note, 'Unaffordable housing,' to show just how unaffordable housing has become for the general public and why the government's cooling policies have been ineffective.

　　就在香港政府承諾將平息公眾對房價屢創(chuàng)歷史新高的憤怒并重新評估香港的土地政策之時，《華爾街日報》記者Polly Hui的報道及相關(guān)視頻探究了香港單元房被分割成單間對外出租的問題，摩根大通公司(J.P.Morgan)仔細(xì)剖析相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)后發(fā)布了一份題為《買不起房子》(Unaffordable housing)的研究報告，這份報告一方面顯示香港房價已遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出普通大眾的負(fù)擔(dān)能力，另一方面也解釋了為什么香港政府為樓市降溫的政策沒有奏效。

　　For starters, incomes are increasing nowhere near as fast as house prices; median household income in March 2011 was HK$19,100 (US$2451). More than 50% of families earn just HK$20,000 per month, and only 4.2% of households have an income over HK$100,000 a month. Nominal median income for households is 27% less than in 1987. Writes JPM:

　　MIKE CLARKE/AFP/Getty Images對于剛剛開始工作的香港人來說，工資的上漲速度絕對趕不上房價漲幅。2011年3月，香港家庭收入中值是1.91萬港元(合2,451美元)。一半以上香港家庭的月收入只有2萬港元，而月收入超過10萬港元的家庭只占到全港家庭總數(shù)的4.2%。香港家庭名義收入中值較1987年下降了27%。摩根大通在報告中說：

　　A 1,300 sq ft apartment in the Belcher's (upscale private complex in Hong Kong's Western district) is equivalent to 11.6 times an income of HK$100,000 per month. Even wealthy households cannot pay for property from income.

　　香港寶翠園(Belcher's)一套約120平方米的公寓價格是每月10萬港元收入的11.6倍。寶翠園是位于香港西區(qū)的高檔私人住宅。就連富裕家庭用工資收入也買不起房子。

　　Never mind the Belcher's, even apartments in one of Hong Kong's largest private estates, the three-decade old Mei Foo Sun Chuen, is out of reach for most, which JPM finds 'most disturbing' (not to mention the fact that when the estate was built, it was on the coast偉the view is now blocked by the West Kowloon Highway and a container terminal block, it adds). Assuming a loan-to-value ratio of 70%, the initial payment for a 675-square-foot flat would be around four times median household income. Assuming the household saves 20% of its income for the down payment, it would take the household 18 years to save for just the initial payment.

　　不要說寶翠園公寓，即使是香港規(guī)模最大的私有住宅區(qū)之一、有30年歷史的美孚新村(Mei Foo Sun Chuen)公寓，對大多數(shù)港人來說也是望塵莫及。摩根大通認(rèn)為這一現(xiàn)象令人極為不安(還不要說該樓盤的建成時間及坐落位置，它們本是海景房，但現(xiàn)在海景被西九龍公路(West Kowloon Highway)和一個集裝箱碼頭擋住了)。假設(shè)房屋貸款的首付比例是三成，那么買一套約62平米的公寓，首付就相當(dāng)于香港家庭收入中值的四倍。假設(shè)一個家庭把月收入的20%拿出來攢首付，需要攢18年。

　　Prices of these so-called 'blue-chip property estates' have also exceeded their 1997 peaks, according to JPM, with returns from smaller, medium-priced apartments in the New Territories at 27% on average in the last two years, compared with 15%-18% for more expensive flats in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon.

　　摩根大通的報告顯示，這些所謂“優(yōu)質(zhì)房屋”的價格已超過了1997年的峰值。位于香港新界地區(qū)面積較小、價位中等的公寓過去兩年的平均回報率為27%，香港島和九龍那些價格較貴公寓的平均回報率為15%至18%。

　　The culprit is of course, in part, ultra-low interest rates, but the government's response to lower loan-to-value ratios is counterproductive and has simply 'shut out the bulk of the population from the market.' While lower LTVs means lower mortgage payments, the improvement in affordability is deceptive, says JPM, as long as 'the denominator remains median income of households.' And with mortgages expected to increase, affordability will only decrease from here (affordability is calculated by property value times LTV times mortgage rates).

　　從某種程度上說，超低利率當(dāng)然是首要原因，但香港政府提高房屋首付比例的做法也起了反作用，這只是把大多數(shù)港人擋在了房地產(chǎn)市場之外。摩根大通說，雖然首付比例越高意味著每月按揭還款額越少，但只要分母仍為家庭收入中值，住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力的改善就具有一定的欺騙性。由于舉借的抵押貸款預(yù)計會增多，因此住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力只會下降(住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力是用房屋估值乘以貸款金額與房屋估值比率(LTV)再乘以按揭利率得出的)。

　　The message from JPM is loud and clear: 'Hong Kongㄒneeds more affordable housing.' Oh, and buy landlords over developers.

　　摩根大通這份報告?zhèn)鬟f出的信息非常有力和明確：香港需要提供更多買得起的房子。哦還有，要買出租房屋的公司而不是房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的股票。