While the brokers churn out research fretting about a possible slowdown in China’s property market as a result of inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy, their fears hadn’t infected most participants at the PERE (private equity real estate) Forum in Hong Kong February 15 and February 16.

　　盡管各券商不斷出臺研究報告，稱通脹壓力和貨幣政策收緊可能導(dǎo)致中國地產(chǎn)市場放緩，但他們的擔(dān)心并未傳染給2月15、16日在香港舉行的PERE（私人股本房地產(chǎn)）論壇的多數(shù)參加者。

　　Indeed the mood was positively optimistic. Most attendees confessed to being surprised by just how resilient the real estate market has been in the face of policies from Beijing to damp down both demand and prices. For example, only 2 per cent of the participants thronging the meeting room at the Four Seasons hotel thought restrictions on bank lending posed any risk at all to the property story in China.

　　事實(shí)上，論壇參加者的情緒頗為樂觀。多數(shù)參加者坦承，面對中國政府旨在遏制需求和價格的各項政策，中國房地產(chǎn)市場表現(xiàn)出的彈性令他們感到意外。例如，在擠滿四季酒店(Four Seasons hotel)會議廳的參加者中，只有2%的人認(rèn)為，針對銀行貸款的限制措施，對中國樓市前景構(gòu)成了一些風(fēng)險。

　　"It is still business as usual for developers,” said one Standard Chartered banker. “We are comfortable with real estate in China.”

　　“對開發(fā)商來說，一切仍然照常，”渣打(Standard Chartered)的一名銀行家表示。“我們對中國房地產(chǎn)市場感到放心。”

　　Moreover, the panelists were even more optimistic than the audience. For example, Tom Delatour, the chief executive of Century Bridge Capital, which is based in Beijing and Dallas, noted that in China’s Tier Two cities, a group which includes about 40 cities, incomes are rising faster than home prices, which means that affordability isn’t a big issue. By contrast, in both Japan and the US flat or falling incomes was a big reason that rising property prices eventually became unsustainable.

　　這還不算，討論小組的成員甚至比聽眾更加樂觀。比如，以北京和達(dá)拉斯為基地開展運(yùn)營的美國世紀(jì)橋投資公司(Century Bridge Capital)首席執(zhí)行官湯姆?德拉圖爾(Tom Delatour)指出，在中國大約40座二線城市，居民收入增長速度超過了房價的漲幅，這意味著價格負(fù)擔(dān)能力不是一個大問題。與此形成反差的是，在日本和美國，收入停滯不前或下降，是房價上漲最終變得不可持續(xù)的一大原因。

　　Delatour has teamed up with developers in cities like Xian and Chongqing to provide middle class housing. By being in line with Beijing’s priorities, he believes he is actually the beneficiary of any future cooling.

　　德拉圖爾已與西安和重慶等城市的開發(fā)商聯(lián)手，提供面向中產(chǎn)階層的住宅。他相信，通過與北京方面的工作重點(diǎn)保持一致，他實(shí)際上將得益于未來的降溫措施。

　　Many panelists thought the fact that the government is intrusive was actually a good thing since it makes the environment predictable. “They tell you what they want and they tell you way in advance,” noted Eddie Wong, chief executive of Winnington Capital. “That’s a plus.”

　　許多討論小組成員認(rèn)為，政府喜歡干預(yù)其實(shí)是一件好事，因?yàn)檫@使整個環(huán)境可以預(yù)測。“他們告訴你他們想要什么，而且很早就告訴了你，”永靈通金融(Winnington Capital)首席執(zhí)行官王運(yùn)光(Eddie Wong)指出。“這是一個有利因素。”

　　To be sure there are downsides imbedded in the positive story. It means that there aren’t likely to be distressed sales any time soon. (And any time there is a distressed sale, there are likely to be serious problems with say the title or other legal issues.) It also means that hopeful providers of capital from offshore are not likely to have any more leverage tomorrow than they did yesterday, unless conditions change radically.

　　當(dāng)然，樂觀的背后也蘊(yùn)含著不利之處。這意味著近期內(nèi)不太可能出現(xiàn)困境拋售。（而且困境拋售往往會伴隨嚴(yán)重的問題，如產(chǎn)權(quán)或其它法律問題。）這還意味著海外潛在資本提供者的影響力不太可能很快增強(qiáng)——除非情況發(fā)生大變。