Global markets paid scant attention to the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. Both were seen as lacking systemic economic and financial significance.

　　全球市場(chǎng)之前對(duì)埃及和突尼斯發(fā)生的革命不太在意，認(rèn)為這兩個(gè)國(guó)家在經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融方面不具備系統(tǒng)重要性。

　　This is now changing as youth-inspired uprisings spread to other countries in North Africa and the Middle East. While political and social issues rightly dominate the headlines, this past weekend could also prove a tipping point when it comes to the global economy; and there is little that western countries can do to offset short-term stagflationary winds.

　　隨著這些青年起義活動(dòng)向北非和中東其它國(guó)家蔓延，上述情況正在發(fā)生變化。雖然報(bào)紙的頭版頭條理所當(dāng)然地被政治和社會(huì)問(wèn)題所主宰，但對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)，過(guò)去一周或許是一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。而在如何阻擋短期內(nèi)的“滯脹”風(fēng)潮上，西方國(guó)家基本上無(wú)能為力。

　　It is understandable that Egypt and Tunisia had essentially not registered on the markets’ traditional scale of systemic influence. The two countries are not significant global economic powers; they do not owe much money to western banks and governments; and they are not large exporters of commodities.

　　本質(zhì)上講，市場(chǎng)此前并沒(méi)有把埃及和突尼斯歸入具有系統(tǒng)重要性的傳統(tǒng)國(guó)家范疇，這一點(diǎn)情有可原。這兩個(gè)國(guó)家并非重要的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)；沒(méi)有欠西方銀行和政府很多錢；也不是重要的大宗商品出口國(guó)。

　　Yet Egypt and Tunisia are catalysts for a broader change that is gaining systemic importance as protests spread. Two developments are particularly important when it comes to global demand and price dynamics. With an oil exporter such as Libya in the grips of a popular uprising, oil prices will rise to reflect much greater supply uncertainties. And with sectarian issues now on display in Bahrain, geopolitical risks are higher for the region – especially as other countries seek to influence events in the kingdom.

　　然而，埃及和突尼斯起到了催化劑的作用。它們激起了一種范圍更大的變化，隨著示威浪潮蔓延，這種變化的系統(tǒng)重要性不斷增強(qiáng)。就全球需求和價(jià)格走勢(shì)而言，有兩個(gè)動(dòng)向尤為重要。首先，當(dāng)像利比亞這樣的石油出口國(guó)陷入民眾起義的浪潮，將導(dǎo)致石油供給不確定性大為加強(qiáng)，從而推高油價(jià)。其次，鑒于巴林正顯現(xiàn)出派系問(wèn)題，該地區(qū)的地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)明顯加劇——尤其是在其它國(guó)家正謀求對(duì)這個(gè)王國(guó)的局勢(shì)施加影響的情況下。

　　In the short run, regional developments will be stagflationary for the global economy due to three main factors: First, higher oil prices will increase production costs and act as a tax on consumers. Second, greater stockpiling around the world will intensify pressures on commodities as a whole. Third, the region will be a smaller market for other countries’ exports.

　　短期內(nèi)，該地區(qū)局勢(shì)將給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)滯脹影響，這主要有三點(diǎn)原因：第一，油價(jià)上漲將拉高生產(chǎn)成本，加重消費(fèi)者負(fù)擔(dān)；第二，全球各地加大囤貨力度，這將加劇所有大宗商品的壓力；第三，該地區(qū)從其他國(guó)家進(jìn)口的商品將會(huì)減少。

　　This economic reality is far from encouraging for western countries. Domestically, having countered aggressively the impact of the global financial crisis, they have little room left for further demand stimulus.

　　對(duì)西方國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，這種經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)不容樂(lè)觀。在積極抵御全球金融危機(jī)的沖擊之后，西方各國(guó)已經(jīng)沒(méi)有余力再出臺(tái)刺激需求的舉措。

　　In the next few days, markets will react to the changed outlook. Higher commodity prices will be accompanied by greater risk aversion in the equity and credit markets. Over time, however, such market apprehension is likely to give way. In the long term, after all, democracy and individual freedoms are the best drivers of prosperity.

　　未來(lái)幾天，市場(chǎng)將順應(yīng)形勢(shì)的變化而作出反應(yīng)。伴隨著大宗商品價(jià)格走高，股市和信貸市場(chǎng)上的避險(xiǎn)意識(shí)將會(huì)增強(qiáng)。不過(guò)，隨著時(shí)間推移，這種市場(chǎng)憂慮情緒有望緩解。畢竟，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，民主和個(gè)體自由是繁榮的最佳推進(jìn)器。