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China's National Bureau of Statistics has a tough time. If they are not being castigated for exaggerated wage data, then it's doubts about the reliability of GDP or accusations that the consumer price index understates the true increase in prices. Adam Dean/Bloomberg News
中國國家統(tǒng)計局的日子不好過:他們不是因為夸大工資數(shù)據(jù)而遭人痛批,就是所發(fā)布的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性遭人質(zhì)疑,或是因為消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)(CPI)低估了物價的真實漲幅而受到指責(zé)。
There's even a saying on the Chinese internet that 'the comrades in the statistical bureau don't buy vegetables.' The implication is that if they did they would know the true extent of price increases (in Chinese).
中國網(wǎng)民在網(wǎng)上甚至還有這樣一種說法:統(tǒng)計局的同志們都不買菜。言下之意是,如果他們?nèi)ベI菜,他們肯定會知道物價上漲的真實幅度。
Those doubts can now be laid to rest, at least a little. 現(xiàn)在,這些質(zhì)疑可以放一放了,至少暫時如此。
At an open day hosted by the statisticians in Beijing Tuesday, Mrs. Wang from the Shanxi provincial statistics office confirmed in the margins of the event that she did buy vegetables. “If I didn't what would I eat?” she replied.
周二,國家統(tǒng)計局在北京舉辦了第二屆中國統(tǒng)計開放日活動。在參加活動的間隙,山西省統(tǒng)計局一位姓王的女同志向記者證實,她確實會去市場買菜。“不買菜我吃什么?”,她問道。
The event was part of a broader effort to open China's statistical system, long criticized for being opaque, to the public and the media. Senior officials, from NBS chief Ma Jiantang on down, fielded questions from the media, the public and online participants.
本次活動是向公眾和媒體公開中國統(tǒng)計制度的一系列舉措的組成部分。長期以來中國統(tǒng)計制度因不透明而遭外界批評。國家統(tǒng)計局局長馬建堂帶領(lǐng)一批高級官員回答媒體、公眾和在線活動參與者的提問。
One question from the floor was essentially a variation on the vegetable joke: “Why is there such a big gap between peoples’ perception of high inflation and the relatively low numbers for changes in consumer prices reported by the NBS?”
現(xiàn)場觀眾提出的一個問題從本質(zhì)上說就是上面那個笑話的翻版:為什么公眾對高通脹的感知和國家統(tǒng)計局公布的CPI的小幅變動之間存在巨大差異?
The answer from Pang Xiaolin of the NBS: Everyone's consumption basket is different, so some people will see prices rising faster than the average recorded by the CPI. People also buy food in different places, and might see prices rising sharply in their neck of the woods when prices elsewhere rise only more modestly.
對此,國家統(tǒng)計局城市司司長龐曉林的解釋是:每個人消費(fèi)的“籃子”不一樣,所以部分人會覺得物價上漲的幅度高于CPI所體現(xiàn)的平均漲幅。另外,購物的地點(diǎn)不同可能導(dǎo)致部分人覺得自己所在地區(qū)的物價大幅上漲,而實際上其它地區(qū)的價格水平只是適度上漲。
(Not on Mr. Pang's list of reasons, but perhaps more important, is the absence of property prices from the CPI basket. With rising property prices a major focus of attention for China's consumers, their absence from the CPI basket means there is often a mismatch between perceptions of inflation and the numbers published by the NBS.)
?。ㄒ韵逻@點(diǎn)不在龐曉林司長所列出的四點(diǎn)原因中,但或許更加重要:CPI一籃子商品價格中缺少了“房價”這一參數(shù)。由于不斷上漲的房價已經(jīng)成為中國消費(fèi)者關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),CPI一籃子商品缺少了這一參數(shù)意味著民眾對通脹的感知和國家統(tǒng)計局公布的數(shù)據(jù)之間存在差異。)
Another topic of interest for the audience was the math behind China's official household income data. A survey in 2008 by Prof Wang Xiaolu suggested that the average annual income of China's richest 10% was 139,000 yuan, more than 300% higher than the official 43,000 yuan figure. Xu Xianchun, a NBS official, explained that the richest 10% were represented in the survey, and that problems with collecting data on the rich were not unique to China.
活動參與者感興趣的另一個話題是官方公布的家庭收入數(shù)據(jù)是如何計算出來的。王小魯博士2008年進(jìn)行的一項調(diào)查顯示,中國最富有的10%的城鎮(zhèn)家庭的平均年收入為13.9萬元,這是官方公布的數(shù)據(jù)4.3萬元的3倍多。對此,國家統(tǒng)計局副局長許憲春解釋說,統(tǒng)計局的調(diào)查包括了10%的最富有人群,而統(tǒng)計高收入人群的收入所碰到的問題并非中國特有。
One factor he did not mention -- the “gray income” China's rich receive from dubious sources and which they are typically unwilling to divulge to the statisticians.
不過,許憲春沒有提到的一個因素是中國富人從來路不明的渠道獲得的“灰色收入”。他們通常也不愿意向統(tǒng)計人員透露這部分收入。
“You can't get fat from eating a single mouthful” goes a saying in China. Change takes time and a transparent statistical system won't be built in a day, or even a year. But an increased willingness to engage with the public and the press, and to explain how the data is put together in greater detail, at least suggests things might be moving in the right direction.
中國有句老話,一口吃不成胖子。改變需要時間,一個透明的統(tǒng)計制度不是一天甚至一年就能建成的。但是,國家統(tǒng)計局越來越愿意與公眾和媒體接觸,并更詳細(xì)地解釋統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)是如何匯總而成的現(xiàn)象至少表明,情況可能正在朝正確的方向改變。
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