Many people in China and abroad view the country’s official inflation statistics with deep suspicion, arguing that real price rises are much greater than indicated by the government’s published consumer price index.

　　中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)及國(guó)外的許多人對(duì)其官方通脹統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)深感懷疑，辯稱中國(guó)的實(shí)際價(jià)格漲幅，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于政府發(fā)布的消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)。

　　But a comparison with The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Index provides proof that official Chinese inflation is actually pretty accurate, according to UBS economist Jonathan Anderson.

　　然而，瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家喬納森·安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示，若與英國(guó)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》雜志(The Economist)知名的巨無(wú)霸漢堡包指數(shù)(Big Mac Index)進(jìn)行比較，就會(huì)證明中國(guó)官方的通脹數(shù)據(jù)其實(shí)相當(dāng)準(zhǔn)確。

　　The Index shows that the average price of a McDonald’s Big Mac hamburger in early 2003 in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was Rmb10.20 and that by the end of 2010 the price had increased to Rmb14.50.

　　巨無(wú)霸指數(shù)顯示，2003年初，一個(gè)麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)巨無(wú)霸漢堡包在北京、上海和深圳的平均價(jià)格為10.20元人民幣，而到了2010年底，這一價(jià)格已升至14.50元人民幣。

　　This annual inflation rate of 4.4 per cent over eight years compares with the officially reported rate of 3.1 percent.

　　在這8年期間的年度通脹率為4.4%，而官方報(bào)告的通脹率為3.1%。

　　But that is roughly the same difference between official inflation rates and respective Big Mac Indices in the US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, Poland, Mexico and Hungary – “none economies that tend to raise investor suspicions of pervasive statistical inflation misreporting,” according to Anderson.

　　但在美國(guó)、日本、歐洲、新加坡、波蘭、墨西哥和匈牙利，當(dāng)?shù)鼐逕o(wú)霸指數(shù)與官方通脹率也存在相似的差異。安德森表示：“這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體都沒有引發(fā)投資者懷疑，認(rèn)為當(dāng)?shù)卮嬖谄毡榈耐浗y(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)誤報(bào)。”

　　He points out that hamburger prices all over the world tend to rise faster than overall CPI because food prices have risen faster in most places.

　　他指出，世界各地的漢堡包價(jià)格上漲速度，往往快于整體消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)，因?yàn)樵诙鄶?shù)地方，食品價(jià)格上漲得更快。

　　“In other words, according to the Big Mac index China official price statistics are, well, just as accurate as anyone else’s,” Anderson said.

　　 “換言之，根據(jù)巨無(wú)霸漢堡包指數(shù)，中國(guó)官方的價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)與其它經(jīng)濟(jì)體同樣準(zhǔn)確，”安德森表示。

　　He also has an interesting explanation for the perception amongst Chinese citizens and the wider investment community that the government is lying about real price increases for political reasons.

　　一些中國(guó)公民乃至范圍更大的投資界抱有一種看法，認(rèn)為中國(guó)政府出于政治原因，在實(shí)際價(jià)格漲幅上沒講實(shí)話，對(duì)此，安德森也有一個(gè)耐人尋味的解釋。

　　He says that when pressed for details of rising prices, many people in China actually reveal that they are upgrading their consumption patterns – moving from sidewalk dumpling stalls to branded restaurant chains, buying Nike trainers instead of fake leather loafers.

　　他表示，許多中國(guó)人在被追問到漲價(jià)細(xì)節(jié)時(shí)，都會(huì)透露出他們實(shí)際上在提升自己的消費(fèi)模式——從路邊的餃子攤到品牌連鎖餐廳，從購(gòu)買假皮革便鞋到購(gòu)買耐克(Nike)運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋。

　　“What these examples have in common, of course, is that they all represent increases in the standard of living; cash outlays may be rising rapidly as a result, but according to international standards, this is not inflation,” Anderson says.

　　 “這些例子的共同點(diǎn)當(dāng)然是，它們都代表著生活水平的提高；現(xiàn)金支出也許因此快速增加，但按照國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這不算通脹，”安德森表示。

　　Finally, for an example of a country where inflation is very much underestimated by official figures Anderson compares Argentina’s data with the Big Mac Index in that country.

　　 最后，安德森以阿根廷為例，說(shuō)明官方數(shù)據(jù)如何才算大幅低估通脹。他比較了阿根廷通脹數(shù)據(jù)與該國(guó)巨無(wú)霸指數(shù)。

　　Annual burger inflation in Argentina of nearly 18 per cent over the last eight years compares with an official annual rate of 8-9 per cent.

　　 過(guò)去8年間，阿根廷巨無(wú)霸漢堡包的年度通脹率達(dá)到近18%，而官方年度通脹率為8%-9%。

　　“Given this picture, it should come as no surprise that Argentina is the one economy under our coverage where we have long maintained that inflation is officially understated,” Anderson says.

　　 “有鑒于此，人們不應(yīng)感到意外的是，在我們研究覆蓋的國(guó)家中，阿根廷是我們長(zhǎng)期認(rèn)為官方通脹低報(bào)的一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，”安德森表示。