Grain prices go the way of the oil price

　　谷物價格再現(xiàn)油價攀高之勢

　　EVERY morning millions of Americans confront the latest trend in commodities markets at their kitchen table. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, rising prices for crops—dubbed "agflation"—has begun to drive up the cost of breakfast. The price of orange juice has risen by a quarter over the past year, eggs by a fifth and milk by roughly 5%. Breakfast-cereal makers, such as Kellogg's and General Mills, have also raised their prices. Underpinning these rises is a sharp increase in the prices of grains such as corn (maize) and wheat, both of which recently hit ten-year highs. Analysts are beginning to ask, as they have of oil and metals, whether higher prices are here to stay.

　　每天早晨，餐桌前的數(shù)百萬美國人都要直面農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場的最新趨勢。美國農(nóng)業(yè)部稱，農(nóng)作物價格上漲（被稱為“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品通脹（agflation）”已經(jīng)開始引發(fā)早餐成本的升高。在過去一年里，橙汁價格上漲了25%，蛋價漲了20%，牛奶價格則漲了約5%，早餐谷類食品制造商如Kellogg's和General Mills也紛紛提價。導(dǎo)致這些產(chǎn)品價格上漲的原因是玉米和小麥等谷物價格的飆升，這兩類谷物的價格近期均升至十年來最高水平。分析人士現(xiàn)已開始懷疑谷物價格是否會像石油和金屬價格一樣一路走高。

　　On the face of it, that is an odd question. After all, if the world runs short of corn or wheat, farmers can simply grow more, weather permitting. That is exactly what they have been doing. In the coming year, the International Grains Council, an industry group, estimates that global production of grains will reach a record of 1,660m tonnes, well above last year's figure of 1,569m. But demand for grain is growing even faster. The council reckons it will reach 1,680m tonnes this year. In three of the past four years, demand has exceeded supply.

　　從表面上看，發(fā)出這種疑問有悖常理。畢竟，即便全球玉米或小麥都消耗一空，農(nóng)民們在氣候條件允許的情況下還可再種植，而且事實也的確如此。據(jù)國際谷物委員會（一家行業(yè)團(tuán)體）估計，全球谷物產(chǎn)量今年底將達(dá)到16.6億噸的歷史最高水平，大大超過去年的15.69億噸。但是谷物需求增長速度更快，該委員會估計今年將達(dá)16.8億噸，而在過去四年中有三年谷物都出現(xiàn)了供不應(yīng)求。

　　The culprit is the growing use of grains to make biofuels, such as ethanol. Most grains are used as food either for people or for livestock. But the increase in human consumption has been slowing for decades as population growth moderates. Demand for animal feed, meanwhile, has grown steadily, as more people in booming countries such as China grow rich enough to afford meat.

　　供不應(yīng)求的根本原因是谷物在生物燃料如乙醇制造方面的應(yīng)用不斷增多。大多數(shù)谷物一般都用作人類食品或者家畜飼料，但數(shù)十年來隨著人口增長趨于緩和，人類谷物消耗量的增長已逐漸減緩。與此同時，由于在像中國這樣的新興國家中能吃得起肉的富人越來越多，動物飼料方面的需求也持續(xù)增長。

　　Demand for biofuel feedstocks, by contrast, is soaring. The amount of corn used to make ethanol in America has tripled since 2000; ethanol distilleries now consume a fifth of the country's corn crop. And America is only one of 41 countries where governments are encouraging the use of biofuels to reduce oil consumption.

　　不過相比之下，生物燃料原料需求的增長要更為迅猛。在美國，用于制造乙醇的玉米總量自2000年以來已經(jīng)翻了兩番，現(xiàn)在該國有1/5的玉米都為乙醇制造廠所消耗。而且，目前全球共有41個國家為降低石油消耗都鼓勵使用生物燃料，美國不過是其中之一。

　　As a result, demand for grains has accelerated. During the 1990s, when oil was cheap and biofuels unheard of, demand grew by 1.2% a year, according to Goldman Sachs. But in recent years, it has increased by 1.4%, and over the next decade, Goldman projects, it will rise by 1.9% annually.

　　谷物需求的增長因此也就加快了。據(jù)高盛公司統(tǒng)計，上世紀(jì)90年代在石油很便宜且生物燃料尚未引起人們注意的情況下，谷物需求每年的增長幅度是1.2%，而近幾年則達(dá)到1.4%。高盛公司預(yù)計今后十年谷物需求每年將增長1.9%。

　　Farmers are struggling to keep up. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist, projects that demand for corn, at least, will continue to exceed supply until at least 2009. Moreover, even to produce as much corn as they are now, farmers are growing less soya and wheat, and so pushing up the prices of those crops too. With all the main grains to feed poultry and livestock becoming more expensive, the cost of meat and eggs is rising, and so it goes on.

　　農(nóng)民對此也是疲于應(yīng)付。據(jù)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》姐妹刊物《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家情報》預(yù)測，至少在2009年以前，至少玉米將持續(xù)供不應(yīng)求。此外，由于農(nóng)民正減少大豆和小麥的種植，因此將來即使不降低玉米產(chǎn)量，此類農(nóng)作物的價格也會不斷上揚(yáng)。隨著喂養(yǎng)家禽和家畜的各種谷物越來越貴，肉蛋價格也正在并將繼續(xù)上漲。

　　When demand was growing more slowly, farmers could meet it through gradual improvements in their yields. But to cope with today's boom, yields will have to rise much faster, or farmers will have to bring more land into production.

　　在過去，當(dāng)需求增長趨緩時，農(nóng)民可通過逐步增加產(chǎn)量來應(yīng)對。但要應(yīng)付當(dāng)前的飛速增長，那就必須要么大大加快增產(chǎn)速度，要么讓農(nóng)民拿出更多的土地用于生產(chǎn)。

　　Both are possible. Greater adoption of genetically modified strains of corn and wheat, for example, could improve yields. But they are expensive and politically controversial. There is also quite a bit of fallow land to be sowed, especially in developing agricultural powers such as Brazil and Ukraine. But those countries are far from the biggest markets and their idle land tends to be found in areas with poor transport links. A strong price signal will be needed to overcome such obstacles and induce extra supplies.

　　這兩種情況都有可能。比如說，加大玉米和小麥基因改造技術(shù)的應(yīng)用可提高產(chǎn)量，但經(jīng)改造的產(chǎn)品價格都比較昂貴，而且容易引發(fā)政治爭議。休耕地也還有相當(dāng)多，在發(fā)展中農(nóng)業(yè)大國如巴西、烏克蘭更是如此，但這些國家距離大型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場都很遠(yuǎn)，而它們的閑置耕地往往又都位于交通落后地區(qū)，因此只有很明顯的價格變化，才能促使這些地方增產(chǎn)。

　　But even if new land is planted, argues Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs, it will not necessarily reduce the cost of grains. Since high oil prices and generous government subsidies ensure that biofuels are profitable, any extra grain will be used to make more of the stuff. That will not dent the oil price, since the volumes remain tiny compared with global oil consumption. Instead, the price of biofuels has risen to that of petrol, and the price of corn and crude oil, the main feedstocks for the two, have converged. For grain prices to fall, Mr Currie argues, either governments must pull the plug on biofuels programmes, or the oil price must fall.

　　然而，高盛公司的杰弗里庫里（Jeffrey Currie）認(rèn)為，即使增加耕地，也不一定會降低谷物價格。由于油價高、政府補(bǔ)貼多使得生物燃料有利可圖，因此增收的谷物都會被用于生產(chǎn)生物燃料原料。這并不會使油價下跌，因為石油總量相比全球石油消耗而言仍然很少。相反，生物燃料價格已經(jīng)逼近石油價格水平，而作為兩者的主要原料，玉米和原油的價格也已持平。庫里認(rèn)為，要想谷物價格下降，前提條件要么是政府限制生物燃料生產(chǎn)，要么是油價下跌。

　　Neither seems very likely in the near future. This week America's Congress is debating whether to double its targets for biofuel production. At the same time, the oil price rose to its highest level in ten months, thanks to a strike and other disruptions in Nigeria. The chaos in the Niger delta, it turns out, has a surprising amount to do with the price of eggs.

　　從短期來看，這兩種情況似乎都不太可能發(fā)生。本周，美國國會將討論是否將生物燃料產(chǎn)量指標(biāo)再增加一倍。與此同時，由于尼日利亞發(fā)生罷工和動亂，石油價格也攀升至十個月來的最高水平。誰曾想到，尼日爾三角洲地區(qū)的動蕩竟能引起蛋價上漲呢？！