Economists are predicting that China's surging inflation─reflected in new data showing a sharp rise last month─is about to hit its peak and start subsiding, which could augur a halt to the government's efforts to tap the brakes on the world's No. 2 economy. But many of those same economists were predicting exactly the same thing a year ago.

　　經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)計，中國不斷加劇的通貨膨脹（最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示6月份通脹率大幅上升）即將達到頂峰并開始減弱，預(yù)示著中國政府可能將暫停為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體踩剎車。但這些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家當(dāng)中，很多人在一年前也正是這樣預(yù)測的。

　　China's National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday said that the consumer price index in June surged by 6.4% from a year earlier. That was a jump from May's 5.5% rate and close to the high hit three years ago.

　　中國國家統(tǒng)計局周六說，6月份居民消費價格指數(shù)較去年同期飆升6.4%，大大高于5月份5.5%的漲幅，并接近三年前達到的高點。

　　"Most economists (including us) believe CPI inflation could peak in June and decline" in the second half of 2011, Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note last week. Indeed, a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 13 economists on Thursday, following the People's Bank of China's fifth interest-rate increase in eight months, found that eight of them don't expect any further increases the rest of this year.

　　美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家陸挺上周撰寫研究報告說，包括我們在內(nèi)，多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家都認(rèn)為CPI漲幅可能會在6月份見頂，并在2011年下半年下降。道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)上周四在中國央行八個月來第五次加息過后對13位經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的調(diào)查也發(fā)現(xiàn)，八名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)計年內(nèi)CPI漲幅不會進一步擴大。

　　Rewind 12 months, when consumer prices were rising around 3%, and the message was similar. The headline inflation reading "is likely to rise again in July due to rising food prices," Mr. Lu wrote on July 15, 2010, "but it's very likely that it will just peak in July...and then will trend down on a rising comparison base."

　　回到12個月前。當(dāng)時消費價格漲幅在3%左右，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們傳遞的信息也跟現(xiàn)在差不多。陸挺在2010年7月15日寫道，由于食品價格的上漲，7月份總體通貨膨脹率可能繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)為上升，但通脹率很有可能就在7月份見頂，然后因為比較基數(shù)增大的緣故而逐漸下降。

　　He was hardly alone. Almost all major economists at international banks, research houses and agencies missed the mark. Although "inflation continued to accelerate, we believe underlying inflationary pressures are dissipating quickly," wrote Yu Song of Goldman Sachs in June 2010. "Inflation might have risen again last month but the peak is probably not far away," said Mark Williams of Capital Economics on July 8 of that year. "Barring an unforeseen supply shock to food prices, consumer-price inflation should peak in midyear and begin falling in the second half of 2010," wrote economists at the International Monetary Fund in a report that month.

　　持這種觀點的遠(yuǎn)非他一個人。國際銀行、研究公司和機構(gòu)幾乎所有重要經(jīng)濟學(xué)家都沒有預(yù)測對。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的宋宇在2010年6月份寫道，雖然通脹仍在加速，但我們相信背后的通脹壓力正在快速消失。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在同一年7月8日說，上個月通脹率可能已經(jīng)再次上升，但峰值可能不遠(yuǎn)了。也是在2010年7月，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們發(fā)表報告說，只要食品價格不受供應(yīng)面因素的意外沖擊，消費價格漲幅應(yīng)該會在年中見頂，并在2010年下半年開始下降。

　　In fact, inflation jumped to 5.1% in November, stayed high for months, and is now climbing again.

　　事實上，2010年11月通脹率猛增至5.1%，此后數(shù)月維持高位，現(xiàn)在又在攀升。

　　For investors, executives and others around the world trying to guess where China's economy is headed now, understanding why analysts got it wrong last summer can help to gauge how much confidence should be placed in the current forecasts.

　　對于投資者、企業(yè)經(jīng)理人和世界上正在猜測中國經(jīng)濟目前走向的其他人來說，理解去年夏季分析師做出錯誤預(yù)測的原因，有助于判斷應(yīng)該在多大程度上相信他們當(dāng)前的預(yù)測。

　　Predicting prices and other factors is always tricky, especially in an economy as large and complicated as China's, where there is limited transparency in the official data. And bucking the consensus is always difficult for analysts.

　　物價和其他一些因素不好預(yù)測，特別是對于中國這樣巨大而復(fù)雜、官方數(shù)據(jù)又不太透明的經(jīng)濟體。而分析師又始終難以做出有悖于普遍觀點的預(yù)測。

　　Chinese leaders have been among those underestimating inflation: The average CPI surpassed the government 3% full-year target for 2010, and Premier Wen Jiabao last month acknowledged it will likely exceed this year's target of 4%, too. The influence of government pronouncements on forecasts can be pernicious in China, because they are often seen as reflecting inside information.

　　中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也低估了通貨膨脹：2010年平均CPI漲幅超過了政府設(shè)定的3%的全年目標(biāo)，國務(wù)院總理溫家寶上個月也承認(rèn)，今年4%的目標(biāo)可能會被超過。在中國，政府宣布的預(yù)測可能會產(chǎn)生不良影響，因為這些預(yù)測常被認(rèn)為反映了內(nèi)幕信息。

　　"Forecasting inflation is always much more difficult than forecasting growth," says Merrill's Mr. Lu. "So take all these inflation forecasts with a grain of salt. This is something where we should all be humble, especially for forecasting a specific point in time for peaking or bottoming."

　　美銀美林的陸挺說，預(yù)測通脹率始終比預(yù)測增長率困難得多，所以對于所有這些通脹率預(yù)測都要有所保留；這方面我們都應(yīng)該保持謙虛，特別是對于見頂、見底具體時點的預(yù)測。

　　An examination of the past predictions suggests several reasons that analysts were caught by surprise.

　　對以往預(yù)測的研究顯示，分析師之所以未能準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測，主要有以下幾個原因：

　　For one, they underestimated the role played by the explosion of cash in the economy resulting from government-driven stimulus spending in 2009 and 2010 aimed at fending off the global recession. China's total stock of outstanding bank loans rose by nearly two-thirds during that two-year period, a deluge of credit that sent money sloshing around the economy, putting cash in consumer pockets and eventually driving up the prices for everyday goods.

　　第一，分析師低估了激增的現(xiàn)金在經(jīng)濟中扮演的角色。在2009年和2010年，為了避免全球衰退對中國經(jīng)濟的影響，中國實施了政府主導(dǎo)的刺激性支出政策，因此向經(jīng)濟體內(nèi)注入了大量現(xiàn)金。在那兩年中，中國未償付的銀行貸款總量增加了近三分之二，信貸的泛濫給經(jīng)濟體注入了大量流動性，消費者的口袋里裝滿了現(xiàn)金，這最終推高了日常商品的價格。

　　"I guess you could say that the persistence of inflation has lent credence" to the view that surging money supply has driven inflation, says Mr. Williams of Capital Economics in London. "I still struggle with that, though, because when you look at where the inflation is coming from, it's still pretty much about food, and specific foods as well, and I still struggle to see how increasing loans to state-owned firms pops up a few minutes later in cabbage prices."

　　凱投宏觀駐倫敦的中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家威廉姆斯說，我猜你可能會說，持續(xù)通脹令這樣一種觀點更為可信，即貨幣供應(yīng)量的激增拉高了通脹率。但我仍然糾結(jié)于這種觀點，因為當(dāng)你審視通脹的源頭，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)推高通脹率的主要還是食品價格，尤其是具體幾種食品。我還是難以理解流向國有企業(yè)的貸款增加是如何很快地推高白菜價格的。

　　Indeed, food prices have been perhaps the biggest driver of China's inflation, rising 14.4% in June. Food prices are inherently volatile, depending on unpredictable factors like weather conditions.

　　事實上，食品價格或許已經(jīng)成為影響中國通貨膨脹水平的最大因素，6月份食品價格上漲14.4%。從本質(zhì)上說，食品價格并不穩(wěn)定，取決于多種不可預(yù)知的因素，比如天氣狀況。

　　Floods and droughts occur almost every year in China, and in such a huge country with a largely underdeveloped agricultural sector, those factors can cause significant temporary disruptions. Floods were behind a surge in vegetable prices last year, and drought conditions in wheat-growing areas pushed up wheat prices early this year.

　　中國幾乎每年都要發(fā)生洪水和干旱，其國土面積雖然龐大，但農(nóng)業(yè)部門在整體上還處于欠發(fā)達狀態(tài)，這些因素可能導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)嚴(yán)重的暫時中斷。去年菜價激增的背后原因是洪水泛濫，而小麥主產(chǎn)區(qū)的旱情推高了今年年初的小麥價格。

　　"The key problem in forecasting CPI in China is that food has been responsible for about two-thirds of the overall CPI rise, and food prices are notoriously difficult to predict," says Andy Rothman, China macro strategist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

　　里昂證券亞太區(qū)市場（CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets）中國宏觀策略師羅特曼（Andy Rothman）說，預(yù)測中國CPI的一個關(guān)鍵問題在于食品在整體CPI漲幅中占到了大約三分之二的比重，而食品價格走勢是出了名的難預(yù)測。

　　Adds Wang Tao, China economist at UBS: "I am only an economist and could not forecast weather and natural disasters."

　　瑞銀證券中國首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家汪濤補充說，我只是一個經(jīng)濟學(xué)家，我無法預(yù)測天氣和自然災(zāi)害。

　　Despite their earlier missed calls, economists remain confident that inflation is set to slow in the second half of the year. Money-supply growth has slowed considerably in response to tightening measures by the central bank. Forecasters also expect a recent surge in pork prices that has driven up the CPI to be temporary, as farmers respond by breeding more pigs.

　　盡管此前曾出現(xiàn)預(yù)測失誤，但經(jīng)濟學(xué)家對今年下半年通脹率增速放緩持有信心。中國央行的緊縮措施推出后，貨幣供應(yīng)量增速已明顯放緩。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家同時預(yù)計，推高CPI的豬肉價格最近激增的現(xiàn)象只是暫時的，為了應(yīng)對上漲的豬肉價格，養(yǎng)殖戶已經(jīng)增加了生豬的飼養(yǎng)量。

　　A high inflation rate late last year also means China's inflation rates will appear lower in coming months when compared against the year-earlier period, which is how inflation in measured in China. For that reason, it will be much more important to look at how prices relate to the previous month, rather than a year ago.

　　去年年底較高的通脹率也意味著未來幾個月在做同期比較時，中國的通貨膨脹率看上去會顯得比較低。在中國，有關(guān)機構(gòu)計算的是通脹率的同比增幅。出于這個原因，通脹率的環(huán)比增幅可能比同比增幅更為重要。

　　But wholly unpredictable factors, such as bad weather, could once again intervene. Given the regularity with which such shocks occur here, forecasters shouldn't count on trouble-free farming from June onward.

　　但那些完全不可預(yù)知的因素，比如惡劣天氣，可能會再次影響經(jīng)濟。鑒于此類負(fù)面沖擊在中國發(fā)生的規(guī)律性，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家不該指望下半年農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)會風(fēng)調(diào)雨順。

　　At the end of the day, economists acknowledge that inflation forecasting in China is imprecise. Says Mr. Williams: "Although we are still expecting inflation to come down, the confidence with which we hold that view is probably lower than it was a few weeks ago."

　　歸根結(jié)底，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們也承認(rèn)，在中國預(yù)測通貨膨脹并不精確。威廉姆斯說，盡管我們?nèi)匀活A(yù)計通脹率將走低，但支撐這種觀點的信心可能比幾周前來得要弱。