China's central bank raised benchmark interest rates Tuesday, a national holiday, lifting one-year yuan lending rate and the one-year yuan deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point each as the country continues to battle inflation. Analysts weigh in: Jason Lee/Reuters

　　中國(guó)央行在周二清明節(jié)假期宣布自周三起上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率，將一年期人民幣存貸款利率分別上調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。與此同時(shí)中國(guó)還在繼續(xù)和通脹做斗爭(zhēng)。下面是各大金融機(jī)構(gòu)分析師對(duì)此次央行加息的看法：

　　The timing of today's interest rate hike in China is something of a surprise given more dovish comments in recent days from senior officials, but the rate move is not entirely unexpected. The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth. However these should not be overplayed. The latest increases of 25 basis points for one-year deposits and loans are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow the economy. The benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%, still low relative to the pace of economic growth. The constraint on credit growth is the amount that banks can lend rather than the rates they charge. â  Mark Williams, Capital Economics .

　　Capital Economics的Mark Williams：中國(guó)央行選擇在今天加息有點(diǎn)讓人吃驚，因?yàn)榻鼛滋靵?lái)高層官員對(duì)相關(guān)問(wèn)題的看法較為溫和。但此次加息也并非完全出人意料。宣布加息可能會(huì)令市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂緊縮政策給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)的影響，但這些情緒不應(yīng)被夸大。 此次一年期存貸款利率分別上調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)符合過(guò)去幾個(gè)月來(lái)實(shí)施的逐步緊縮政策，不會(huì)大幅拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)。一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)至6.31%，相對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增速來(lái)說(shuō)仍然偏低。制約信貸增長(zhǎng)的主要因素是銀行可放貸資金的規(guī)模，不是貸款利率。

　　This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside. Our current CPI forecast is 5.2% year-on-year for March. It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentumâ  This rate hike underscores once again the front-loaded monetary tightening, which, together with the rather substantial slowdown in money and credit growth so far this year, bodes well for peaking of the headline inflation rate by mid-year, in our view. â  Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley.

　　摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）王慶：本次加息暗示將于下周初公布的3月份CPI的漲幅可能超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。目前我們對(duì)3月份CPI的預(yù)測(cè)是同比上漲5.2%。加息也意味著中國(guó)有關(guān)部門(mén)對(duì)潛在增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭的可持續(xù)性充滿信心。在我們看來(lái)，本次加息再次表明，提前實(shí)施的緊縮性貨幣政策和到目前為止貨幣發(fā)行和信貸增長(zhǎng)的大幅放緩對(duì)上半年抑制高通脹來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好兆頭。

　　We believe the magnitude of the overall policy tightening package since the start of the year has been large enough to cool down aggregate demand growth sufficiently to lower underlying inflationary pressuresâ  Given the nature of the most of the tightening measures tend to be administratively and quantitatively based, price-based tools which include interest rate hikes and currency appreciation should be welcomed as we believe they tend to be more efficient in resource allocation. Having said that, we believe the 25-basis point hike is more a signaling tool than anything else because of its small magnitudeâ  Going forward, we expect the government to broadly maintain its tightening policy stance in the first half of 2011 given the expected elevated year-on-year CPI, though there might be some subtle adjustments as underlying inflationary pressures come off. â  Helen Qiao and Yu Song, Goldman Sachs.

　　高盛（Goldman Sachs）喬虹和宋宇：我們相信，自年初以來(lái)實(shí)施的一攬子緊縮政策的整體力度足以為總需求增長(zhǎng)降溫，進(jìn)而降低潛在通脹壓力。由于從本質(zhì)上講，大部分緊縮措施往往是行政手段，是根據(jù)數(shù)量變化做出的，因此以價(jià)格為基礎(chǔ)的政策工具（比如加息和人民幣升值）應(yīng)該被采用，因?yàn)槲覀兿嘈糯祟?lèi)政策工具分配資源的效率更高。不過(guò)話雖如此，由于加息幅度不大，我們相信利率上調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)更多地是在釋放一種信號(hào)。展望未來(lái)，由于普遍預(yù)計(jì)CPI同比上升，我們估計(jì)政府在今年上半年將大致維持推行緊縮政策的立場(chǎng)。隨著潛在通脹壓力的降低，或許會(huì)有一些政策微調(diào)。

　　Today's rate hike suggests three things to us. First, together with one reserve requirement ratio hike on 18 March, today's move signals China's tightening path is less affected by Japan'sâ nuclear crisis. Second, headline inflation is likely to be above 5% in March. Third, China's monetary policy may lean towards front loaded tightening in the first half of the yearâ  Thanks to the strong growth momentum, we expect China's growth to remain strong in the first quarter at 9.7%. However the growth pace is likely to slow gradually in the next few quarters as a result of tightening measures. Therefore, it may make more sense for China to tighten sooner rather than later to fight inflation when the growth rate is still high. â  Tommy Xie, OCBC

　　華僑銀行（OCBC）Tommy Xie：今天加息對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)意味著三件事情：首先，繼3月18日上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率之后，今日加息意味著中國(guó)的緊縮路徑不太受日本核危機(jī)的影響；其次，3月份CPI有可能超過(guò)5%；再次，中國(guó)的貨幣政策可能傾向于在上半年提前收緊。由于增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁，我們預(yù)計(jì)一季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍將強(qiáng)力維持在9.7%。然而受緊縮政策影響，隨后幾個(gè)季度的增長(zhǎng)步伐可能逐漸放緩。因此，中國(guó)在增長(zhǎng)速度仍然很快的時(shí)候選擇加息以對(duì)抗通脹就顯得更有道理了。