China’s largest real estate developer believes the country’s property market, a key driver for the economy, has turned and expects conditions to worsen in the coming months as sales prices volumes decline further.

　　中國(guó)最大的房產(chǎn)開發(fā)商認(rèn)為，國(guó)內(nèi)房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)（中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵推動(dòng)因素之一）已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向，并預(yù)期未來(lái)幾個(gè)月里情況將變得更加糟糕，銷售量和價(jià)格進(jìn)一步下降。

　　China Vanke, the country’s biggest developer by market share, said government efforts during the past year to rein in soaring prices were having a severe impact and developers were being squeezed after sales volumes in 14 of the largest cities halved in September from a year earlier.

　　按市場(chǎng)份額計(jì)算，萬(wàn)科集團(tuán)(China Vanke)是中國(guó)最大的房產(chǎn)開發(fā)商。該公司表示，過(guò)去一年里政府為遏制樓價(jià)飆升而采取的一系列努力，正造成嚴(yán)重沖擊，9月份，14個(gè)大中城市的銷售量同比減半，開發(fā)商受到擠壓。

　　“We can see a trend of declining sales, especially in major cities,” Shirley Xiao, executive vice-president at China Vanke, said on a conference call with investors on Tuesday. “Prices have begun to decline little by little so we think even buyers who are able to buy will choose to wait because they’re targeting even lower price cuts.”

　　“我們可以看到銷售不斷萎縮的趨勢(shì)，尤其是在大城市，”萬(wàn)科執(zhí)行副總裁肖莉周二在電話會(huì)議上對(duì)投資者表示。“價(jià)格已開始逐漸緩緩下降，因此我們認(rèn)為，即便是那些有能力購(gòu)房的買家，也將選擇等待，因?yàn)樗麄兤谕麅r(jià)格進(jìn)一步下降。”

　　In recent days, small and sporadic demonstrations have broken out at a handful of real estate sales offices in large cities such as Shanghai, with angry recent homebuyers organising sit-ins and demanding refunds after developers started offering discounts on neighbouring apartments to attract customers.

　　近日，上海等大城市一些樓盤的售樓處爆發(fā)了小規(guī)模的零星示威，不久前購(gòu)房的買家在售樓處與開發(fā)商人員僵持，要求退款。此前開發(fā)商為吸引顧客，開始對(duì)鄰近的公寓樓提供折扣。

　　Investors and analysts are watching the Chinese real estate sector closely for signs of collapse because of its importance to the overall economy and the effect a crash could have on everything from global steel and copper prices to social stability in the world’s second-biggest economy.

　　投資者和分析師正在密切關(guān)注中國(guó)房產(chǎn)行業(yè)，留意各種崩盤跡象，原因是該行業(yè)對(duì)中國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)十分重要，若該行業(yè)陷入嚴(yán)重低迷，可能對(duì)很多事產(chǎn)生影響，從全球鋼價(jià)和銅價(jià)，到全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的社會(huì)穩(wěn)定。

　　A 30 per cent drop in property prices would precipitate a collapse in fixed investment in China and the investment-driven economy would experience a so-called hard landing after years of annual growth above 9 per cent, said Wang Tao, a UBS economist.

　　瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家汪濤表示，若房?jī)r(jià)下跌30%，將引發(fā)中國(guó)固定投資崩盤，由投資推動(dòng)的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在多年保持9%以上的年度增長(zhǎng)后，將經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)所謂的硬著陸。

　　Property investment accounts for more than 20 per cent of total fixed investment in China and UBS estimates almost 30 per cent of final products in the economy are absorbed by the property sector.

　　房產(chǎn)投資占中國(guó)固定投資總額的20%以上，據(jù)瑞銀估計(jì)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)近30%的最終產(chǎn)品是被房產(chǎn)行業(yè)吸收的。

　　“A property-led hard landing scenario is quite likely in the next few years, even though we do not think the property market is about to collapse now,” Ms Wang said.

　　“房產(chǎn)引發(fā)的硬著陸在今后幾年里相當(dāng)可能發(fā)生，盡管我們不認(rèn)為房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)即將崩盤，”汪濤表示。

　　Debt-laden provincial governments in China rely heavily on land sales for revenue and have poured investment into commercial housing projects.

　　背負(fù)沉重債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的中國(guó)省級(jí)政府，在財(cái)政收入方面嚴(yán)重依賴土地銷售，同時(shí)它們向商品房項(xiàng)目大舉投資。

　　These local authorities also account for up to 30 per cent of all outstanding bank loans, many of which are collateralised by land and housing developments, so a collapse in the property market could have a devastating knock-on effect.

　　此外，在中國(guó)的未償還銀行貸款總量中，地方政府所欠貸款占至多30%，其中許多貸款是用土地和住房開發(fā)項(xiàng)目抵押的，因此房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤可能造成摧毀性的連鎖效應(yīng)。

　　A property crash could also be politically destabilising as it would especially hurt the new property-owning middle class, who are the most important constituents for the ruling Communist party. Ms Xiao said Vanke expects price declines in the market to be slow and gradual but if developer discounts become more severe it will follow with its own price cuts.

　　樓市崩盤還可能在政治上帶來(lái)影響穩(wěn)定的效應(yīng)，因?yàn)檫@將特別沉重地打擊新生的、擁有房產(chǎn)的中國(guó)中產(chǎn)階層，這些人對(duì)執(zhí)政的共產(chǎn)黨構(gòu)成最重要的支持基礎(chǔ)。肖莉表示，萬(wàn)科預(yù)期，房?jī)r(jià)下降將是緩慢而漸進(jìn)的，但如果其他開發(fā)商出臺(tái)更大幅度的折扣，該公司也將拿出自己的減價(jià)措施。

　　Average housing prices for the entire country still increased in September from a year earlier, according to official data, but the rate of increase slowed.

　　官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月份中國(guó)全國(guó)的平均樓價(jià)仍出現(xiàn)同比上升，但增速有所放緩。

　　Despite falling sales and the difficulties they face getting funding, developers are reluctant to offer steep discounts because they hope the government will rescue the market by lifting credit and housing purchase restrictions introduced over the past year.

　　盡管銷售下降，而且在融資方面遭遇困難，但各家開發(fā)商仍不愿提供大幅折扣，因?yàn)樗麄兿Ｍ畬⒊鍪志仁?，解除過(guò)去一年期間出臺(tái)的各種信貸和購(gòu)房限制。

　　“We have a stand-off between homebuyers, developers and the government and everyone is taking a wait-and-see attitude,” Du Jinsong, a real estate analyst at Credit Suisse, said. “This could be very dangerous because if developers all wait until the very last minute to offer discounts the downside for the whole market will be significant.”

　　“目前購(gòu)房者、開發(fā)商與政府之間出現(xiàn)僵持，大家都在采取靜觀其變的態(tài)度，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地產(chǎn)分析師杜勁松表示。“這可能是很危險(xiǎn)的，因?yàn)槿绻骷议_發(fā)商都等到最后一刻才提供折扣，整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的下行趨勢(shì)將相當(dāng)大。”

　　Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, suggested on Saturday that support for the property market is unlikely to come soon as he urged all levels of government to continue strictly implementing Beijing’s tightening measures.

　　中國(guó)總理溫家寶上周六暗示，政府不太可能很快采取行動(dòng)支持房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。他敦促各級(jí)政府繼續(xù)嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行北京方面的收緊措施。

　　Vanke said its third-quarter net profit rose 32 per cent from a year earlier to Rmb606m ($95m).

　　萬(wàn)科表示，第三季度凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)32%，至6.06億元人民幣（合9500萬(wàn)美元）。