Chinese bonds and equities are flashing warning signs that suggest the booming mainland property sector is heading for a bust – the effects of which could ripple across financial markets worldwide.

　　中國(guó)債券和股票正在亮起警報(bào)信號(hào)，似乎表明近年來(lái)一派繁榮的中國(guó)房產(chǎn)行業(yè)正走向低迷，其影響可能在全球金融市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生漣漪效應(yīng)。

　　A sector that was until last year the darling of international investors is turning into a horror show as traders have started to digest evidence that real estate prices are falling and developers are losing access to funding.

　　目前有證據(jù)表明，房?jī)r(jià)正不斷下降，開(kāi)發(fā)商正失去資金來(lái)源。隨著交易員們開(kāi)始消化此類證據(jù)，直到去年還是國(guó)際投資者眼中寵兒的中國(guó)房產(chǎn)行業(yè)，正變成一場(chǎng)“恐怖秀”。

　　Fears have intensified in the international bond markets, where Chinese property developers have sold $19bn of debt in recent years. Prices of these bonds have tumbled by an average 22 cents on the dollar in the past two months alone, causing yields to jump.

　　國(guó)際債券市場(chǎng)中的擔(dān)憂已有所加劇。近年來(lái)，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商已在這些市場(chǎng)發(fā)售了190億美元的債務(wù)。這些債券的價(jià)格僅在過(guò)去兩個(gè)月期間，就大跌22%，導(dǎo)致收益率飆升。

　　“You’re seeing yields now above 20 percent, which implies significant default risk,” says Owen Gallimore, Asia credit strategist at ANZ. He warns that at least half a dozen developers are in serious danger of defaulting on their bonds.

　　“現(xiàn)在你可以看到收益率達(dá)到20%以上，這意味著存在重大違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，”澳新銀行(ANZ)亞洲信貸策略師歐文?加利莫爾(Owen Gallimore)表示。他警告稱，至少有6家開(kāi)發(fā)商面臨嚴(yán)重的債券違約危險(xiǎn)。

　　Equity markets are also delivering a brutal verdict. Since the start of the year, Chinese property stocks listed in Hong Kong have declined 40 percent, compared to a 22 percent fall in the benchmark Hang Seng index.

　　股市也在作出無(wú)情的判決。自今年年初以來(lái)，在香港上市的中國(guó)地產(chǎn)類股已下跌40%，而基準(zhǔn)的恒生指數(shù)(Hang Seng index)同期內(nèi)的跌幅為22%。

　　“People are worrying about default risk, and the implications for property companies themselves, for the banking system and for the overall equity market,” says Agnes Deng, head of China equities at Baring Asset Management.

　　“人們?cè)趽?dān)心違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及這對(duì)地產(chǎn)公司本身、銀行業(yè)體系和股市整體的影響，”霸菱資產(chǎn)管理(Baring Asset Management)的中國(guó)股票業(yè)務(wù)主管鄧?guó)櫸?Agnes Deng)表示。

　　On a recent fact-finding trip to the Pearl River Delta, Ms Deng said she saw many developers reducing selling prices by 5 percent or more amid a decline in transaction volumes, even though September and October are traditionally the strongest months for mainland property sales.

　　鄧?guó)櫸姆Q，近期實(shí)地走訪珠江三角洲地區(qū)期間，她看到許多開(kāi)發(fā)商降價(jià)5%或更大幅度。目前成交量下降，盡管9、10月傳統(tǒng)上是中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)銷售的旺季。

　　According to government data, Chinese property prices have risen 60 percent since the end of 2006. However, private sector estimates suggest that in many areas the jump in prices is several multiples of the official figures.

　　政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)樓價(jià)自2006年底以來(lái)上漲60%。不過(guò)，私人部門的估計(jì)似乎表明，許多地區(qū)的樓價(jià)漲幅達(dá)到官方數(shù)字的數(shù)倍。

　　Partly as a result of the dearth of accurate, comprehensive data on supply and demand for housing in China, there is a wide array of opinions about whether the market is a bubble, and if it is, whether it has started to burst.

　　缺乏準(zhǔn)確、全面的中國(guó)住宅供需數(shù)據(jù)，在一定程度上導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)兩個(gè)問(wèn)題抱有不同的看法：中國(guó)樓市是否存在泡沫？如果存在，那么這個(gè)泡沫是否已開(kāi)始破裂？

　　What is without doubt, however, is that Chinese property developers took on enormous amounts of debt in recent years as they pursued aggressive expansion plans, leaving them little room for manoeuvre if property sales do fall.

　　但是，不存在疑問(wèn)的是，近年中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商在執(zhí)行大膽的擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃之際，背負(fù)了巨額債務(wù)，這意味著，如果房產(chǎn)銷售確實(shí)下滑，它們幾乎沒(méi)有什么回旋余地。

　　Making matters worse, developers are losing access to funding, having been frozen out of public bond markets for the past three months. Meanwhile, state-owned banks are following government orders to rest-rict lending to all but the most powerful developers.

　　更糟的是，開(kāi)發(fā)商正失去資金來(lái)源，過(guò)去三個(gè)月來(lái)，它們被擋在公開(kāi)債券市場(chǎng)門外。與此同時(shí)，國(guó)有銀行正遵照政府指令，限制向多數(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)商放貸（只有一些最強(qiáng)大的開(kāi)發(fā)商除外）。

　　According to Chinese media, the government this month told the trust company sector, part of the country’s fast-growing shadow banking system, to stop lending to certain developers. “The trust companies were the lender of last resort, which is why it’s so serious for that tap to be turned off,” says Mr Gallimore.

　　據(jù)中國(guó)媒體報(bào)道，政府本月通知信托公司停止向某些開(kāi)發(fā)商放貸；信托公司是中國(guó)快速增長(zhǎng)的影子銀行體系的一部分。“信托公司是最后的放貸者，正因如此，這條渠道被切斷是非常嚴(yán)重的，”加利莫爾表示。

　　Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, this week conducted a stress test to determine how the 30 Chinese developers that it rates would perform in a downturn. For bondholders, the results were sobering.

　　評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor’s)本周進(jìn)行了一次壓力測(cè)試，以確定該機(jī)構(gòu)評(píng)估的30家中國(guó)開(kāi)發(fā)商在低迷期間將如何表現(xiàn)。對(duì)債券持有者來(lái)說(shuō)，壓力測(cè)試的結(jié)果是催人警醒的。

　　Most developers could withstand a 10 percent decline in property sales in 2012, S&P found. But more than half of the companies, including several large operators such as Evergrande, would struggle to meet debt repayments if contract sales fall by 30 percent.

　　標(biāo)普發(fā)現(xiàn)，多數(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)商能夠承受2012年房產(chǎn)銷售下降10%。但如果合同銷售下降30%，逾半數(shù)企業(yè)，包括恒大地產(chǎn)(Evergrande)等數(shù)家大型開(kāi)發(fā)商，將難以維持債務(wù)償還。

　　In January 2010, when bullish sentiment about China was running high, Evergrande sold $1.35bn of five-year bonds to US, European and Asian investors with a coupon of 13 percent. Those bonds are now trading at 73 cents on the dollar, giving a yield of 26 percent. Meanwhile, Hong Kong-listed shares in Evergrande are trading at a multiple of just four times its forecast 2011 earnings.

　　2010年1月，在看好中國(guó)的情緒高漲之際，恒大地產(chǎn)以13%的票面利率，向美國(guó)、歐洲和亞洲投資者發(fā)售了13.5億美元的五年期債券。這些債券目前的交易價(jià)格僅為發(fā)行價(jià)的73%，這意味著收益率達(dá)到26%。與此同時(shí)，在香港上市的恒大地產(chǎn)股價(jià)僅為其2011年預(yù)期收益的4倍。

　　While prices like these may appear attractive, analysts warn they could fall much lower. In 2008, when there were only a few Chinese property bonds in the market, bond prices slumped to below 50 cents on the dollar as the mainland housing market started to implode.

　　盡管這樣的價(jià)格似乎看上去具有吸引力，但分析師們警告稱，它們可能進(jìn)一步大幅下跌。2008年，隨著中國(guó)房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始下滑，同類債券（當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)上只有寥寥幾只中國(guó)房產(chǎn)企業(yè)發(fā)行的債券）的價(jià)格曾跌至發(fā)行價(jià)的50%以下。