The chairman of Bank of China has dismissed suggestions that China could face its own banking crisis as a result of an unprecedented expansion of state-directed credit in the past two years.

　　中國銀行(Bank of China)董事長肖鋼對外界的一些說法表示不以為意，這些說法認為，過去兩年中國在政府指令下信貸空前擴張，其結果是中國可能面對自己的銀行業(yè)危機。

　　"Some analysis and estimates from outside say there could be a financial crisis in China in the next few years,” Xiao Gang, chairman the country’s third-largest lender by market value, said on the sidelines of the annual National People’s Congress in Beijing.

　　 “外面有一些分析和估算，稱未來幾年內中國可能發(fā)生一場金融危機，”這位中國市值第三大銀行的董事長在北京全國人大年會間隙表示。

　　"But I think the chances of a big increase in bad loans in the banking sector are very small.”

　　 “但我認為，銀行業(yè)不良貸款大幅增加的幾率很小。”

　　Chinese banks lent about Rmb17,500bn ($2,667bn) in the past two years alone, compared with just more than Rmb4,500bn in 2008, as Beijing responded to the global economic crisis by opening the credit floodgates and ramping up infrastructure construction.

　　僅僅在過去兩年，中國各銀行就發(fā)放了大約15.7萬億元人民幣（合2.667萬億美元）的貸款，而2008年的新增銀行貸款僅為略高于4.5萬億元人民幣。面對當時的全球經(jīng)濟危機，北京方面的回應是打開信貸閘門，加大基礎設施建設力度。

　　Much of the new lending found its way into real estate and local government infrastructure projects. Analysts and even some Chinese bankers say the credit binge has helped fuel inflation and many of the loans will not be repaid.

　　新增貸款中有很大一部分流入了房地產(chǎn)和地方政府基建項目。分析師——甚至中國一些銀行業(yè)人士——表示，這種信貸狂潮加劇了通脹，而很多貸款將無法償還。

　　Mr Xiao acknowledged that non-performing loan ratios at Chinese banks were almost certain to rise from their current low levels of below 1 per cent, but he said there would not be a big jump in bad credit.

　　肖鋼承認，幾乎可以肯定，中國各銀行的不良貸款率會從目前不到1%的較低水平上升，但他表示，不會出現(xiàn)不良信貸大幅飆升的情況。

　　Fitch, the rating agency, issued a warning last June and again in November that China was likely to face a banking crisis within the next three years as a result of the credit surge, according to the standardised risk assessment it does for most large economies.

　　評級機構惠譽(Fitch)在去年6月和11月兩次警告稱，根據(jù)該機構對多數(shù)大型經(jīng)濟體進行的標準化風險評估，信貸激增的結果是：中國可能在未來三年內面對一場銀行業(yè)危機。

　　Mr Xiao said Chinese banks had so far not seen any widespread examples of distressed borrowers unable to repay loans and he expressed confidence that Beijing would be able to maintain fast and stable growth in the coming years.

　　肖鋼表示，中國各銀行迄今沒有看到大量借款者陷入困境、無力償還貸款的情況，同時他表示，對于中國政府能夠在未來幾年保持快速穩(wěn)定的增長抱有信心。

　　He said the fact Chinese banks had expanded loans rapidly in recent years to individual retail customers to buy houses and cars also lowered the risk of a banking crisis.

　　他表示，中國各銀行近年對買房和買車的個人零售客戶大幅增加放貸，也降低了銀行業(yè)危機的風險。

　　"Everybody knows Chinese people have a tradition of repaying debt and will only borrow what they can afford to pay back in the future,” Mr Xiao said.

　　“誰都知道中國人有還債的傳統(tǒng)，而且只會借自己將來有能力償還的金額，”肖鋼表示。

　　Cultural aversion to debt delinquency was a common argument put forward during consumer credit booms in countries such as South Korea and Taiwan prior to the Asian financial crisis – but in both those cases borrowing habits quickly changed, leading to a rapid build-up of bad loans.

　　亞洲金融危機之前，在韓國、臺灣等經(jīng)濟體經(jīng)歷消費信貸繁榮期間，“文化上反感欠債”曾是一種常見的說辭，但在韓國和臺灣，人們的借款習慣迅速發(fā)生了改變，導致不良貸款快速累積。

　　China’s last financial crisis peaked more than a decade ago when the government bailed out and restructured the state-owned banking sector following a state-directed lending binge in the mid-1990s that resulted in bad debt ratios as high as 50 per cent by some estimates.

　　中國的上一場金融危機在10多年前達到頂峰，當時政府對國有的銀行業(yè)進行了紓困和重組。此前在90年代中期發(fā)生了政府指令下的放貸狂潮，按照一些人的估算，那場放貸狂潮造成高達50%的不良貸款率。

　　The government has ordered banks to lend less this year and has lifted the ratio of deposits they must hold in reserve with the central bank at least five times since last October.

　　中國政府已指示各銀行今年減少放貸，自去年10月以來，還至少5次提高了銀行存款準備金率。

　　Mr Xiao said BoC expected to extend about Rmb600bn in new loans this year, compared with about Rmb620bn last year, but this was unlikely to have a big impact on profits as rising interest rates would provide higher returns on loans and bonds.

　　肖鋼表示，中行預計今年發(fā)放約6000億元人民幣新貸款，低于去年的大約6200億元人民幣，但這不太可能對利潤造成重大影響，因為利率上升將提高貸款和債券的回報率。