People love conspiracy theories.

　　陰謀論討人喜歡。

　　One in particular has been doing the rounds in FX land for months, with no sign of fizzling out. Right now, it's having a mini revival.

　　其中一個(gè)已經(jīng)在外匯市場(chǎng)流傳數(shù)月，沒有完全熄滅的跡象。目前它正在經(jīng)歷一次小小的復(fù)興。

　　The theory goes as follows:

　　論調(diào)是這樣的：

　　China is buying euros in a deliberate effort to stop the yuan from rising too far. Sure, it's keeping Washington sweet by letting the yuan climb against the dollar. But it's bashing the buck hard by buying euros, keeping the yuan relatively weak on a trade-weighted basis.

　　中國(guó)正在買進(jìn)歐元，從而蓄意阻止人民幣升值過大。它的確是在允許人民幣對(duì)美元升值，讓華盛頓很開心。但通過購買歐元，卻讓人民幣的貿(mào)易加權(quán)匯率保持相對(duì)疲軟，給美元造成重?fù)簟?

　　The analysts at BNP Paribas are keen on this idea right now.

　　法國(guó)巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)的分析師目前就熱衷于這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。

　　“China fixes [the dollar] lower [against the yuan] trying to hold increasing commodity import price pressure at the border,” the bank's currencies analysts said Monday in a note to clients. Translation: commodities prices are rising, so China is letting the yuan climb, to make those imports cheaper.

　　該行外匯分析師3月21日致客戶報(bào)告說，中國(guó)讓美元對(duì)人民幣下跌，希望把越來越大的大宗商品進(jìn)口價(jià)格壓力擋在國(guó)門之外。也就是說，大宗商品價(jià)格正在上漲，所以中國(guó)在允許人民幣升值，從而使得這些進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格更低。

　　But, the bank continues: “China seems to be not yet ready accepting general yuan strength, suggesting that the People's Bank of China reserve managers will remain on the euro bid.” Again, a translation for those uninitiated in the dark art of reading currencies research: China still wants to keep the yuan generally weak, so it will keep on buying euros.

　　但巴黎銀行接著說，中國(guó)似乎還沒有準(zhǔn)備接受人民幣的整體強(qiáng)勢(shì)，這意味著中國(guó)人民銀行的外匯儲(chǔ)備管理者將繼續(xù)購買歐元。再給那些未掌握外匯研究報(bào)告閱讀竅門的人們解釋一下：中國(guó)仍舊希望保持人民幣的整體疲軟，所以它將繼續(xù)購買歐元。

　　Now that the grand G-7 coordinated intervention on the yen has taken place, China can't very easily buy Japanese yen to help keep the yuan under pressure, so this euro buying is likely to accelerate, the French bank added.

　　巴黎銀行說，在七國(guó)集團(tuán)已經(jīng)聯(lián)手對(duì)日?qǐng)A展開大規(guī)模干預(yù)的情況下，中國(guó)不可能非常容易地買到日?qǐng)A，來從一個(gè)方面壓制人民幣匯率，所以這種購買歐元的行為可能會(huì)加速。

　　This may or may not be true. It's close to impossible to tell for sure, although it chimes with persistent trading-floor chatter. Whenever the euro runs higher against the buck, with no obvious trigger, traders blame China. Many market watchers are nonplussed by this idea, pointing out that there's a good number of other reasons for the euro to be strong against the dollar right now, despite the long-running European debt crisis. After all, European Central Bank interest rates are set to rise within three weeks. We'll be lucky if the Fed does the same this year. To be fair, BNP Paribas doesn't think this is the only reason for euro strength, either.

　　這樣的說法可能是對(duì)的，也可能是錯(cuò)的。到底是對(duì)是錯(cuò)幾乎無法肯定，不過它與交易大廳內(nèi)一直流傳的一些閑言絮語差不了多遠(yuǎn)。只要?dú)W元在沒有明顯誘發(fā)因素的情況下對(duì)美元上漲，交易員就歸因于中國(guó)。很多市場(chǎng)觀察者對(duì)這種想法不解，他們指出，雖然有存在了很久的歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)，目前歐元對(duì)美元強(qiáng)勢(shì)的其他原因還有很多種。至少歐洲央行(European Central Bank)很有可能在三周之內(nèi)加息。如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年做同樣的事情，美元也會(huì)受益。需要說明的是，巴黎銀行也認(rèn)為中國(guó)的購買并不是歐元走強(qiáng)的唯一原因。

　　But if it is true, it goes some way towards solving one of the biggest riddles in the market: the curious case of the weak dollar. With investors' worry lists running into at least two pages, it's weird that the dollar--usually a safe retreat in times of stress--is not significantly stronger.

　　但如果這種說法是對(duì)的，市場(chǎng)中最大的謎語之一──美元奇怪地走軟──就得到了一定程度的解釋。在投資者擔(dān)憂的事情至少要寫滿兩頁的情況下，困難時(shí)期常被當(dāng)作避風(fēng)港的美元居然沒有明顯走強(qiáng)。

　　Pinning this on China may be misguided. But the euro's resilience is somewhat odd. And two plus two makes at least five in the currencies markets.

　　將此歸因于中國(guó)或許是步入了歧途。但歐元的堅(jiān)挺或多或少地有些奇怪。而在外匯市場(chǎng)，二加二至少會(huì)等于五。