日本打響了應(yīng)對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)日?qǐng)A之戰(zhàn)，也由此加入了其他許多面臨同樣匯率問題的亞洲政府陣營(yíng)，這個(gè)問題就是與中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

　　當(dāng)人們的注意力集中在日?qǐng)A兌美元匯率創(chuàng)下15年高點(diǎn)，進(jìn)而令日本周三開始干預(yù)匯市的同時(shí)，日?qǐng)A兌人民幣匯率也快要達(dá)到十年來(lái)的高位。

　　考慮到人民幣的問題，這使得日本這個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體與韓國(guó)、泰國(guó)和臺(tái)灣這些依賴出口的經(jīng)濟(jì)體有了同樣的處境，這些與中國(guó)既是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)關(guān)系又是貿(mào)易關(guān)系的經(jīng)濟(jì)體認(rèn)為有必要對(duì)匯市進(jìn)行日常干預(yù)以調(diào)整它們的匯率。

　　野村證券(Nomura)駐新加坡的外匯策略負(fù)責(zé)人弗林特(Simon Flint)說，中國(guó)是共有的特性，因?yàn)樗莵喼拮畲蟮母?jìng)爭(zhēng)者，在某些情況下還是亞洲最大的貿(mào)易伙伴。

　　當(dāng)中國(guó)允許人民幣升值時(shí)，正如過去幾天的那樣，這給其他亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)匯率走高的容忍度留下了空間。美元兌人民幣周四在上海市場(chǎng)上收于6.7248元，這是自1994年人民幣開始交易以來(lái)的最高收盤水平，此前中國(guó)央行制定的人民幣匯率中間價(jià)已連續(xù)五天創(chuàng)出新高。自6月份以來(lái)人民幣兌美元已經(jīng)上漲了1.5%。

　　實(shí)際上，鑒于對(duì)中國(guó)匯率走勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)而非應(yīng)對(duì)，中國(guó)之外亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的幣種匯率上揚(yáng)。自6月19日中國(guó)表示將對(duì)其外匯政策進(jìn)行調(diào)整之后，投資者將資金投入了其他亞洲幣種，希望從這輪匯率走勢(shì)中獲得更大利潤(rùn)，即便多數(shù)時(shí)候人民幣仍在原地踏步。

　　自中國(guó)6月份宣布的匯改以來(lái)，韓國(guó)、泰國(guó)和新加坡貨幣兌人民幣的匯率都上漲了3%左右，加重了它們對(duì)其出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的擔(dān)憂。這三國(guó)加上臺(tái)灣都活躍于外匯市場(chǎng)，買入美元，推動(dòng)外匯儲(chǔ)備達(dá)到或接近創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平。中國(guó)之外的亞洲國(guó)家擁有2.9萬(wàn)億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備，中國(guó)一國(guó)擁有2.5萬(wàn)億美元。

　　這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體決定進(jìn)行干預(yù)，據(jù)分析師說部分原因是因?yàn)槿绻贿@么做，它們的貨幣將會(huì)升值，從而使其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力不及中國(guó)。就日本來(lái)說，中國(guó)和美國(guó)是它最重要的貿(mào)易伙伴，分別占據(jù)著日本出口的18%和16%。盡管過去以來(lái)日本一直遵照七國(guó)集團(tuán)間的總體協(xié)議對(duì)匯市不予干預(yù)，但在有些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家看來(lái)，干預(yù)匯市是日本為保護(hù)脆弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇而擁有的為數(shù)不多的方法之一。

　　過去十年里，亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)依靠低匯率支撐的出口型增長(zhǎng)而實(shí)現(xiàn)蓬勃發(fā)展。一些亞洲國(guó)家正準(zhǔn)備采取行動(dòng)，刺激國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)，降低對(duì)出口的依賴，但是成效有限，盡管各國(guó)廣泛認(rèn)為這種經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式的轉(zhuǎn)變是必要的。

　　弗林特說，匯率的確影響競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。他說，就亞洲整體而言，出口型增長(zhǎng)模式十分成功，很難忽略這個(gè)制勝之道。

　　中國(guó)還通過減持美元、增持鄰國(guó)貨幣促使其外匯儲(chǔ)備更加多元化，這也對(duì)亞洲國(guó)家的匯率決策造成了一定影響。雖然中國(guó)對(duì)其外匯儲(chǔ)備的構(gòu)成口風(fēng)很嚴(yán)，但是近幾月韓國(guó)和日本稱中國(guó)突然大幅增持它們的國(guó)債。

　　中國(guó)的增持給日?qǐng)A和韓圓帶來(lái)了升值壓力，也進(jìn)一步加劇了亞洲緊張的政治局面。

　　渣打銀行(Standard Chartered PLC)負(fù)責(zé)匯市研究的全球負(fù)責(zé)人亨德森(Callum Henderson)在一份研究報(bào)告中表示，中國(guó)增持日本國(guó)債可能助長(zhǎng)了日?qǐng)A的升值。他說，雖然中國(guó)的人民幣匯率機(jī)制更加靈活，人民幣也有所升值，但是通過購(gòu)買日本國(guó)債，中國(guó)已揭開了與各國(guó)外交和金融關(guān)系的新篇章。

　　匯豐控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)外匯策略師耶特森加(Richard Yetsenga)認(rèn)為，其它亞洲國(guó)家的央行像中國(guó)一樣，利用曾經(jīng)干預(yù)匯市時(shí)積累的外匯儲(chǔ)備買入日?qǐng)A，而不是買入美元，這在某種程度上讓整個(gè)亞洲地區(qū)展開了干預(yù)匯市的火炬接力。他說，干預(yù)匯市在國(guó)家間會(huì)產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。

　　不過日本的干預(yù)可能不像其它亞洲國(guó)家那么成功。國(guó)際清算銀行認(rèn)為，考慮到日?qǐng)A市場(chǎng)日成交量5680億美元，是全球成交量最大的匯市之一，日本干預(yù)匯市的任務(wù)更加艱巨。

　　弗林特說，日本以外的亞洲國(guó)家干預(yù)匯市之所以能夠行之有效，是因?yàn)樗鼈兊膮R市力量相對(duì)較小，流通性不是特別高，所以央行的干預(yù)反而可以產(chǎn)生較大影響。

　　In launching its fight against the strong yen, Japan has joined a slew of other Asian governments facing a common currency predicament: competition with China.

　　While attention was focused on the yen's 15-year high against the dollar as Japan began currency intervention Wednesday, the yen was also near its highest point against the Chinese yuan in a decade.

　　That puts Japan--an advanced economy--in the same boat as such export-dependent economies as South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan, which compete and trade with China and find it necessary to routinely intervene in currency markets to adjust their currencies, taking the yuan into account.

　　'China is the common denominator in that it's the largest competitor and in some cases the largest trading partner in Asia,' said Simon Flint, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura in Singapore.

　　When China allows its currency to appreciate, as it has in the past few days, that gives room to other Asian economies to tolerate currency rises. The yuan ended trading Thursday in Shanghai at 6.7248 per dollar, its strongest close since the currency began trading in 1994, after China's central bank set the reference rate for daily trading at a fresh high for the fifth straight day. The yuan has risen 1.5% against the dollar since June.

　　In reality, Asia's economies outside China have seen their currencies rise in anticipation of, rather than in reaction to, China's currency moves. Since China signaled a change in its foreign-exchange policy on June 19, investors have sent money into other Asian currencies, hoping to ride the currency wave higher, even as the yuan has stayed mostly still.

　　South Korea, Thailand and Singapore have all seen their currencies rise about 3% against the yuan since the June announcement, exacerbating worries about export competitiveness. All three, in addition to Taiwan, have been active in currency markets, buying dollars and pushing their reserves to record or near-record levels. Asian countries outside China hold $2.9 trillion in reserves. China has $2.5 trillion.

　　These countries have decided to intervene, according to analysts, in part because not doing so would cause their currencies to rise and make them less competitive in relation to China. In Japan's case, China and the U.S. are the most important trade partners, with China receiving 18% of its exports while the U.S. accounts for 16%. While Japan had been staying out of currency intervention in line with general agreement among Group of Seven countries, some economists see it as one of Tokyo's few options to protect its fragile economic recovery.

　　Asia thrived over the past decade by relying on export-oriented growth aided by depressed exchange rates. Moves are under way in some Asian countries to boost domestic demand and reduce their reliance on exports, but the impact is still limited despite widespread agreement that such a shift is necessary.

　　'Relative exchange rates do matter for competitiveness,' Flint said. 'In Asia in general, export-led growth has been very successful, and it's difficult to ignore a winning formula.'

　　China has also affected Asian countries' currency-policy decisions by accelerating the diversification of is currency reserves out of the dollar and into the currencies of its neighbors. While China keeps a tight wrap on the composition of its holdings, South Korea and Japan have reported in recent months sharply increased buying by China of government debt in their currencies.

　　That's put pressure on those currencies to rise, and raised the political temperature in Asia.

　　'Inflows from China's accumulation of Japanese government debt have likely contributed to yen appreciation,' Callum Henderson, global head of Standard Chartered PLC's (STAN.LN) foreign-exchange research, wrote in a research note. He said while China has become more flexible on the yuan and allowed some appreciation, by moving into Japanese bonds, China has opened 'a new chapter in the countries' diplomatic and financial relationship.'

　　HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) currency strategist Richard Yetsenga figures other Asian central banks have, like China, moved reserves accumulated during currency intervention from dollars into yen, in a way passing the intervention torch around the region. 'Intervention from one country is begetting intervention in another,' he said.

　　Japan may not be as successful as other Asian interventionists, however. It has a much bigger fight on its hands given that the yen market is among the world's largest, with daily turnover of $568 billion, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

　　'The reason intervention is reasonably effective in Asia outside Japan is because of relative market power. They are not particularly liquid markets, so central bank intervention can have a disproportionately large impact,' said Nomura's Flint.