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中國(guó)并非歐洲的白衣騎士(雙語(yǔ))

來源: 互聯(lián)網(wǎng) 編輯: 2011/09/15 10:52:54  字體:

  A new way for indebted European governments to relieve the pressure: Hint that China will ride to the rescue with its mountain of foreign-exchange reserves.

  債務(wù)纏身的歐洲政府緩解壓力的一個(gè)新方法是:暗示中國(guó)將用自己的巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備出手相救。

  Rome is the latest to hope that Beijing will save it from the monsters in the bond market. Officials from its finance ministry are in discussions with China over a significant purchase of Italian bonds. They follow a long line of Spanish, Greek and Hungarian hopefuls who have trumpeted an increase in Chinese purchases.

  羅馬是最新一個(gè)希望北京將把它從債市妖魔手中拯救出來的歐洲政府。意大利財(cái)政部的官員們正在與中國(guó)就大量購(gòu)買意大利國(guó)債舉行會(huì)談。在意大利政府之前,有希望得到救助的西班牙、希臘和匈牙利政府都曾大肆宣揚(yáng)中國(guó)會(huì)增持其國(guó)債。

  China certainly has the funds to make a difference. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange manages $3.19 trillion in reserves, with $274 billion to spend in the first half of 2011. A similar amount in the second half would allow China to cover the cost of redeeming all the debt the Italian finance ministry has falling due.

  中國(guó)無疑擁有可以帶來巨大不同的資金。中國(guó)國(guó)家外匯管理局管理著3.19萬(wàn)億美元外匯儲(chǔ)備,其中2011年上半年將用掉2,740億美元。下半年的類似數(shù)額將使中國(guó)有能力買下意大利財(cái)政部即將到期的全部債務(wù)。

  China hasn't been shy about claiming credit for supporting Europe in its hour of need. Beijing has also extracted substantial value from side deals, snapping up strategic assets at bargain basement prices. A Greek port leased by state-owned shipping giant Cosco was the most visible. But evidence of a genuine increase in purchases of distressed European sovereign debt is lacking.

  中國(guó)一直不避諱自稱是在危難時(shí)刻向歐洲提供支持的功臣。北京還從附帶的交易中獲得了相當(dāng)大的價(jià)值,以極低的價(jià)格收購(gòu)了戰(zhàn)略性資產(chǎn)。中國(guó)國(guó)有航運(yùn)巨頭中國(guó)遠(yuǎn)洋租賃的一個(gè)希臘港口是最明顯的例證。不過,卻缺乏證據(jù)證明中國(guó)確實(shí)增持了陷入困境的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)。

  Consider press reports in July 2010 that SAFE had purchased upward of $500 million in Spanish 10-year debt. That was seen as a vote of confidence in Europe. But any positive impact on sentiment was short-lived. Yields edged down slightly from 4.6% the day the news broke, but by the end of November they had climbed to 5.5%.

  想想2010年7月媒體報(bào)道的國(guó)家外匯管理局購(gòu)買了逾5億美元的10年期西班牙國(guó)債。當(dāng)時(shí)此舉被視為是對(duì)歐洲投了信任票。但對(duì)投資者信心的正面影響卻是短暫的。收益率較消息出爐日的4.6%小幅走低,但去年11月底前收益率攀升至5.5%。

  Greece had little more luck. In October 2010, Premier Wen Jiabao made a much-publicized visit in which he promised unwavering support. But if China was buying Greek debt in large volumes, it wasn't evident in the markets. The yield on Greek 10-year debt dipped slightly from 10.1% at the beginning of October, but by the end of the year, it had reached 12.4% and is now at 21.3%.

  希臘的運(yùn)氣也沒好多少。2010年10月,中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院總理溫家寶高調(diào)訪問希臘,期間他承諾堅(jiān)決提供支持。不過,如果中國(guó)大量購(gòu)買了希臘國(guó)債,在市場(chǎng)上卻沒有體現(xiàn)出來。10年期希臘國(guó)債收益率較10月初的10.1%小幅下滑,但截至年底前收益率達(dá)到了12.4%,目前則高達(dá)21.3%。

  Stepping back from the detail, it makes little sense for China to increase its purchases of high-risk European debt. Beijing is concerned enough about the risk of default from the U.S. after the unseemly squabbling over the debt ceiling. They are hardly likely to solve the problem by piling into even riskier assets.

  姑且不談這些細(xì)節(jié),中國(guó)增持高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的歐洲國(guó)債幾乎毫無道理。在美國(guó)有失顏面的債務(wù)上限論戰(zhàn)后,北京已經(jīng)很擔(dān)心美國(guó)違約的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他們不太可能買進(jìn)更加危險(xiǎn)的資產(chǎn)來解決這個(gè)問題。

  For embattled politicians in Italy and elsewhere, hinting that China is riding to the rescue provides a temporary respite from the steady increase in debt financing pressure. Cozying up to China might also encourage Germany and other neighbors to offer more of a helping hand. But countries hoping for anything more will have an additional cause for distress.

  對(duì)于意大利等國(guó)四面楚歌的政界人士來說,暗示中國(guó)將出手相救,這可以在債務(wù)融資壓力穩(wěn)步增加時(shí)提供暫時(shí)喘息的機(jī)會(huì)。向中國(guó)示好還可能促使德國(guó)和其他鄰國(guó)更多地伸出援手。但那些希望獲得除此之外更多東西的國(guó)家只會(huì)自添煩惱。

我要糾錯(cuò)】 責(zé)任編輯:Nocy
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