In the midst of the most choppy markets since the global financial crisis, companies seeking to list in Hong Kong have to deal with one more unpredictable factor: the retail investor.

　　在眼下這個(gè)自全球金融危機(jī)以來最動(dòng)蕩的市場上，想要在香港上市的公司還得面對一個(gè)不可預(yù)知的因素：散戶投資者。

　　In May, Milan Station Holdings Ltd., a small Hong Kong company that sells second-hand luxury handbags, captured investors' imagination─and money─with a US$40 million initial public offering whose retail portion was a record 2,179 times oversubscribed. The stock soared 66% on its debut, although it has given up nearly half of those gains since then.

　　AFP/Getty Images位于香港灣仔和金鐘區(qū)的摩天大樓。今年5月，香港一家名為米蘭站控股有限公司（Milan Station Holdings Ltd.，簡稱：米蘭站）的二手奢侈品手袋小型銷售商成功滿足了投資者的想象力，并獲得了他們的資金，其面向散戶投資者的IPO部分獲得了2,179倍的超額認(rèn)購，共計(jì)募集資金4,000萬美元。其上市交易首日股價(jià)飆升66%，但自那之后其股價(jià)跌去了近一半的上述漲幅。

　　But only a few weeks later, retail investors didn't take up all the shares made available to them in the US$2.47 billion IPO of luxury group Prada SpA, despite heavy promotional efforts that included a glitzy fashion show for the city's elite. Shares barely rose on their debut but have since risen steadily and closed Monday up 13% from the HK$39.50 IPO price.

　　僅僅幾周后，在奢侈品集團(tuán)普拉達(dá)（Prada SpA）總額高達(dá)24.7億美元的IPO中，盡管有發(fā)行方密集的推銷攻勢（其中包括一場為香港精英舉辦的令人炫目的時(shí)裝秀），但散戶投資者并沒有悉數(shù)買進(jìn)面向他們發(fā)售的股份。其上市交易首日股價(jià)幾乎沒有上漲，隨后卻穩(wěn)步上升，其周一收盤價(jià)高出39.50港元的IPO發(fā)行價(jià)13%。

　　Mom-and-pop investors are helping to make or break an IPO's reputation as 'hot' in Hong Kong, one of the busiest markets for new listings in the last few years and one that is increasingly attracting companies from outside the city and China.

　　在火熱的香港市場，散戶投資者對一家公司IPO的聲譽(yù)來說，可以說是舉足輕重。過去幾年來，香港是全球新股上市最繁忙的市場之一，香港市場也正日益吸引來自香港和中國內(nèi)地以外的公司。

　　But their presence isn't always welcomed by bankers, who say outsized demand and the tendency of those investors to quickly sell can make their job harder.

　　但這些公司的出現(xiàn)并不總是受到投資銀行家的歡迎。投資銀行家說，過于龐大的需求以及散戶投資者傾向于盡快賣出令他們的工作更加難做。

　　'Retail investors could add more volatility to the deal; the majority of institutional investors tend to hold for a longer term,' said David Suen, co-head, Asia ex-Japan equity capital market of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., one of the banks in charge of Tibet 5100 Water Resources Holdings Ltd.'s recent US$177 million Hong Kong IPO.

　　摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.）亞洲（不含日本）股權(quán)資本市場聯(lián)席主管David Suen說，散戶投資者可能增加交易的波動(dòng)性，多數(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者傾向較長期持有股票。摩根大通是負(fù)責(zé)西藏5100水資源控股有限公司（Tibet 5100 Water Resources Holdings Ltd.，簡稱：西藏5100）在香港1.77億美元IPO的簿記行之一。

　　Part of the power of the retail investor is because local regulators, uniquely, require that 10% of every IPO be set aside for the average investor, unless the issuer applies for a waiver to reduce that amount in favor of institutional investors like mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds.

　　散戶投資者所以能有這樣的“權(quán)力”，部分原因是香港的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)有一個(gè)很獨(dú)特的規(guī)定，即每一宗IPO交易都要留出10%的部分給普通投資者，除非發(fā)行方為了利于共同基金、養(yǎng)老基金和對沖基金等機(jī)構(gòu)投資者申請豁免，才能降低預(yù)留給散戶投資者的認(rèn)購比例。

　　In the U.S., by contrast, a deal could go entirely to institutional investors.

　　相比之下，在美國，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者可以100%認(rèn)購一宗IPO交易所發(fā)行的股份。

　　Moreover, if demand from Hong Kong retail investors exceed certain levels, a rule known as a clawback requires that they be given a greater percentage of the offering. At its most extreme, if retail subscription is 100 times or more the number of shares offered to them, they must then receive half of the offering. According to Dealogic, 29 Hong Kong IPOs in 2010 and 2011 have had so much demand that the maximum clawback was triggered.

　　此外，如果香港散戶投資者的需求超過某一水平，一項(xiàng)名為“回?fù)?rdquo;（clawback）的機(jī)制要求發(fā)行方提高散戶投資者的認(rèn)購比例。在最極端的情況，如果散戶投資者的認(rèn)購量是最初分配給其的股份數(shù)目的100倍及以上，那么散戶投資者必須獲得此次新股發(fā)行數(shù)目的一半。據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)追蹤商Dealogic透露，在2010年和2011年，共有29宗香港市場的IPO出現(xiàn)了散戶踴躍認(rèn)購的情況，以致回?fù)軝C(jī)制被觸發(fā)。

　　Finally, Hong Kong investors have a reputation for being quick to flip stocks. One reason is that they often buy on margin, fronting just 10% of the value and relying on the brokerage to finance the remaining 90%. Investors who receive shares worth more than their 10% deposit may opt to sell shares to avoid stumping up more money.

　　最后，香港投資者也因股票換手率很高而出名。其中一個(gè)原因是，他們往往憑保證金購買股票：投資者只需出占股價(jià)10%的資金，尾款由經(jīng)紀(jì)商墊付。買入股票的投資者只要收益超過其自付的10%的保證金，他們可能會(huì)選擇賣出股票，以避免支付更多的資金。

　　As a result, bankers say they have a harder time picturing how IPOs that get heavy retail demand will do after listing.

　　因此，投資銀行家說，他們更加難以預(yù)測散戶投資者認(rèn)購比例很高的股票在上市交易以后的表現(xiàn)。