The Federal Reserve is likely to begin closing a wide-open credit spigot this week─but faces a major decision: when to start draining the excess credit out of the economy by raising interest rates.

　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)可能會(huì)在本周開始關(guān)緊大開的信貸龍頭，同時(shí)也面臨著一個(gè)重大決定：什么時(shí)候開始通過加息回籠經(jīng)濟(jì)體中的過量信貸資金。

　　Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday are expected to signal that in June they plan to end their controversial strategy of buying $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to spur the economy. That would mark a milestone in the historic efforts by the central bank to stimulate economic growth.

　　預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員將在周三暗示，他們通過收購(gòu)6,000億美元國(guó)債來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的爭(zhēng)議性策略將在6月份結(jié)束。這將標(biāo)志著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而采取的這種歷史性措施出現(xiàn)重要轉(zhuǎn)折。

　　While analysts and investors debate whether the end to the bond-buying effort will have a significant impact on financial markets, the Fed is contemplating when and how to begin draining the credit it pumped into the economy during and after the global financial crisis. That tightening of credit still looks at least several months off, if not longer, and could take a while to unfold.

　　分析師和投資者在爭(zhēng)論債券收購(gòu)的結(jié)束是否會(huì)對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生重大影響，而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)則在思考什么時(shí)候、通過什么方式開始回籠全球金融危機(jī)期間及過后向經(jīng)濟(jì)體注入的信貸資金。這種收緊信貸之舉看起來至少也是幾個(gè)月之后的事情，其實(shí)施過程可能也會(huì)需要一段時(shí)間。

　　Most Fed officials, as well as many economists and investors, think the end of the Fed's two major bond-buying efforts─often called ”quantitative easing“ or dubbed QE and QE2─will pass without any significant disruptions to markets or the economy.

　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)多位官員，以及很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和投資者都認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)兩輪大規(guī)模債券收購(gòu)行動(dòng)（通常稱為“定量寬松”，簡(jiǎn)稱QE和QE2）的結(jié)束不會(huì)給市場(chǎng)或經(jīng)濟(jì)造成任何較大的擾亂。

　　Laurence Kantor, head of research at Barclays Capital, argues that markets already reflect the widespread understanding that the Fed will stop buying bonds and will then hang on to its portfolio for some time. Its portfolio currently amounts to more than $2 trillion of securities, when counting Treasury bonds and mortgage debt.

　　巴克萊資本公司(Barclays Capital)研究部門負(fù)責(zé)人坎托(Laurence Kantor)說，從市場(chǎng)行情已經(jīng)可以看出，投資者普遍認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將停止購(gòu)買債券，然后其資產(chǎn)組合將有一段時(shí)間保持不變。如果將美國(guó)國(guó)債和房貸債券包括在內(nèi)，目前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)持有的資產(chǎn)就是超過2萬(wàn)億美元的證券。

　　Holding on to the securities the Fed has bought, the thinking goes, should keep markets stable. ”It's not the beginning of the Fed tightening, it's the end of the Fed easing,“ Mr. Kantor says.

　　Getty Images美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)這種想法認(rèn)為，持有美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)購(gòu)買的證券應(yīng)當(dāng)會(huì)讓市場(chǎng)保持穩(wěn)定。坎托說，這不是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊的開始，而是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)寬松政策的結(jié)束。

　　Many believe such low interest rates will keep driving investors into assets that bring higher returns than Treasurys─pushing up stocks, commodities and other riskier assets.

　　很多人相信，目前的低利率將繼續(xù)鼓勵(lì)投資者買入回報(bào)高于美國(guó)國(guó)債的資產(chǎn)，從而推高股票、大宗商品和其他高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格。

　　But a tame market response isn't certain. Some big investors worry that interest rates will rise when the Fed stops its purchases, which have amounted to 85% of all government debt sold by Treasury since the program started in November. In this view, when such a big buyer disappears, the markets are bound to feel the absence.

　　但市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)不一定是溫和可控的。一些大投資者擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)停止收購(gòu)時(shí)利率將會(huì)上升。自收購(gòu)國(guó)債的計(jì)劃在去年11月啟動(dòng)以來，美國(guó)財(cái)政部發(fā)行的全部國(guó)債中有85%被美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收購(gòu)。如此看來，當(dāng)這么大的一個(gè)買家消失之后，市場(chǎng)肯定會(huì)有反應(yīng)。

　　"When QE2 ends in June, then $1.5 trillion worth of check-writing per year basically disappears," says William Gross, who oversees the $1.2 trillion portfolio of Pacific Investment Management Co. "It will be a big event."

　　太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 1.2萬(wàn)億美元投資的管理人格羅斯(William Gross)說，當(dāng)QE2在6月份結(jié)束時(shí)，每年價(jià)值1.5萬(wàn)億美元的購(gòu)買量就消失了；這將是一件大事。

　　As investors adjust to the new dynamic, the transition away from the bond-buying strategy could mean an end to the roaring rally experienced by stocks, commodities and riskier bonds and currencies, and introduce a period of volatility.

　　隨著投資者努力適應(yīng)新的環(huán)境，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)棄用收購(gòu)債券的策略可能使股市、大宗商品和高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)債券與貨幣經(jīng)歷的飆升行情告一段落，然后進(jìn)入一段波動(dòng)時(shí)期。

　　Although Fed officials are almost certain to discuss the nature and timing of what they call their "exit strategy" at this week's two-day meeting, they aren't expected to give much firm guidance in their end-of-meeting statement or in the press conference that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold Wednesday afternoon.

　　雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員幾乎肯定要在本周為時(shí)兩天的會(huì)議期間討論所謂“退出策略”的性質(zhì)和時(shí)間，但在會(huì)后聲明或美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)周三下午舉行的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)當(dāng)中，預(yù)計(jì)他們不會(huì)給出多少明確的指引。

　　The keys to the timing of the Fed's exit are the health of the U.S. economy and level of inflation. The Fed expects unemployment to remain high and inflation to recede, but both are uncertain right now.

　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)退出，關(guān)鍵在于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康狀況和通脹水平。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)失業(yè)率繼續(xù)高企、同時(shí)通貨膨脹減弱，但兩方面目前都不確定。

　　Economic forecasters expect the U.S. Commerce Department to report Friday that the economy grew less than 2% in the first quarter, on an inflation-adjusted annual rate. Most blame bad weather, higher energy costs and the effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. They anticipate a rebound to 3% growth for the rest of the year.

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)商務(wù)部會(huì)在周五公布，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)第一季度經(jīng)通脹因素調(diào)整后按年率計(jì)算增長(zhǎng)了不到2%。大多數(shù)人將其歸咎于惡劣的天氣、能源成本上升以及日本地震和海嘯的沖擊。他們預(yù)計(jì)今年后三個(gè)季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增幅會(huì)反彈至3%。

　　Inflation, meanwhile, has been pushed up by rising commodity prices. Top Fed officials have signaled that they expect this to be transitory. But if it persists, or if the public becomes more convinced inflation is on the rise, the Fed's patience could be tested.

　　與此同時(shí)，不斷上漲的大宗商品價(jià)格一直在推高通脹。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)高級(jí)官員已經(jīng)表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)這種局面是暫時(shí)的。但如果這種狀況持續(xù)下去，或者公眾開始更確信通脹在升級(jí)，那么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的耐心就要接受考驗(yàn)了。

　　Fed officials on Wednesday will disclose their updated economic forecasts. They are likely to show higher 2011 inflation forecasts and could show a slight downgrade to the near-term growth outlook; the 2012 outlook might not change much.

　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員周三將發(fā)布最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，2011年通脹預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)更高，短期增長(zhǎng)前景展望可能會(huì)略有下調(diào)，2012年的展望可能不會(huì)有多大變化。

　　Some Fed officials are ready to get on with tightening credit either by raising short-term interest rates or selling off some of the Fed's portfolio of securities. But Mr. Bernanke and his closest lieutenants─Janet Yellen and William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, which makes major interest-rate decisions─have indicated they aren't in a rush.

　　一些聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員準(zhǔn)備通過上調(diào)短期利率或出售聯(lián)儲(chǔ)部分證券組合繼續(xù)收緊信貸。但貝南克及其最親密的副手耶倫（Janet Yellen）和達(dá)德利（William Dudley）已經(jīng)表示他們并不急于這樣做。達(dá)德利是紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）行長(zhǎng)和聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)（FOMC）副主席，而FOMC負(fù)責(zé)做出重大的利率決定。

　　Markets currently anticipate the Fed will move to tighten credit at the very end of this year or early next. The economy, in other words, will remain awash in cheap credit.That view has helped to power the stock market recently.

　　目前市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)在今年年末或明年年初收緊信貸。也就是說，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)依然會(huì)充滿廉價(jià)信貸。這種觀點(diǎn)最近助推了股市上漲。

　　In the view of many Fed officials, the second round of bond-buying─QE2─ fulfilled most of its goals: It chased away the threat of deflation, or falling consumer prices, and it sent investors into stocks and other assets riskier than Treasury debt, enlarging the net worth of stock investors and cheering business executives. In addition, though the Fed wasn't explicit about this objective, it nudged down the value of the dollar, giving U.S. exports a lift by making them more affordable in foreign-currency terms.

　　在許多聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員看來，第二輪債券購(gòu)買行動(dòng)（也就是第二輪量化寬松）實(shí)現(xiàn)了大部分目標(biāo)：驅(qū)除了通貨緊縮或消費(fèi)者價(jià)格下跌的威脅，讓投資者涌入股市或其他比國(guó)債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的資產(chǎn)，增大了股票投資者的凈值，并讓企業(yè)高管歡欣鼓舞。此外，盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)沒有明說，但這一政策確實(shí)導(dǎo)致了美元貶值，讓美國(guó)出口商品折算成外幣更便宜，從而提振了美國(guó)出口。

　　Critics say the Fed's actions also chased up commodities prices, draining household buying power. Fed officials counter that the commodity-price run has been driven by demand in developing countries combined with supply shortages.

　　批評(píng)人士說，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的行動(dòng)還推高了大宗商品價(jià)格，削弱了家庭的購(gòu)買力。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員反駁稱，大宗商品全線漲價(jià)是由發(fā)展中國(guó)家需求增加和供應(yīng)不足兩方面原因造成的。

　　Starting essentially last year on Aug. 27─the day Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke laid the groundwork for QE2─investors have flocked to riskier investments. Since Aug. 26 the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained 28%. Smaller, generally riskier stocks have done even better, with the small-company Russell 2000 Index gaining 41%. It stands just 1.15 shy of its all-time high set in 2007.

　　自去年8月27日開始，也就是聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席貝南克為QE2奠定基礎(chǔ)那天開始，投資者紛紛涌向風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的投資。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500股指從8月26日以來攀升了28%。而成分股市值更小、總體而言投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的羅素2000指數(shù)漲了41%，只比2007年創(chuàng)下的歷史最高水平低1.15點(diǎn)。

　　Corporate bonds have rallied and commodity prices have risen sharply, too. Gold is up 22% since Aug. 26 and silver is up 143%, both hitting nominal record highs. Even subprime mortgage securities, which were largely blamed for causing the financial crisis, are back in demand.

　　公司債券的價(jià)格也出現(xiàn)回升，大宗商品價(jià)格大幅上揚(yáng)。金價(jià)自8月26日以來上漲22%，銀價(jià)上漲143%，二者名義價(jià)格均創(chuàng)歷史新高。就連被廣泛指責(zé)造成此次金融危機(jī)的次級(jí)抵押貸款證券，其市場(chǎng)需求也在回升。

　　The biggest loser has been the U.S. dollar, the consequence of the Fed essentially printing more of them to buy bonds. The Fed's index of the value of the dollar against a broad basket of currencies is down 7.9% since Aug. 26.

　　美元一直是最大的輸家，這是聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)際上印制更多鈔票購(gòu)買債券造成的。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)用以跟蹤美元兌一籃子貨幣匯率的指數(shù)自8月26日以來跌了7.9%。