The Federal Reserve is likely to begin closing a wide-open credit spigot this week─but faces a major decision: when to start draining the excess credit out of the economy by raising interest rates.

　　美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)可能會在本周開始關(guān)緊大開的信貸龍頭，同時也面臨著一個重大決定：什么時候開始通過加息回籠經(jīng)濟體中的過量信貸資金。

　　Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday are expected to signal that in June they plan to end their controversial strategy of buying $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to spur the economy. That would mark a milestone in the historic efforts by the central bank to stimulate economic growth.

　　預計美聯(lián)儲官員將在周三暗示，他們通過收購6,000億美元國債來刺激經(jīng)濟的爭議性策略將在6月份結(jié)束。這將標志著美聯(lián)儲為刺激經(jīng)濟增長而采取的這種歷史性措施出現(xiàn)重要轉(zhuǎn)折。

　　While analysts and investors debate whether the end to the bond-buying effort will have a significant impact on financial markets, the Fed is contemplating when and how to begin draining the credit it pumped into the economy during and after the global financial crisis. That tightening of credit still looks at least several months off, if not longer, and could take a while to unfold.

　　分析師和投資者在爭論債券收購的結(jié)束是否會對金融市場產(chǎn)生重大影響，而美聯(lián)儲則在思考什么時候、通過什么方式開始回籠全球金融危機期間及過后向經(jīng)濟體注入的信貸資金。這種收緊信貸之舉看起來至少也是幾個月之后的事情，其實施過程可能也會需要一段時間。

　　Most Fed officials, as well as many economists and investors, think the end of the Fed's two major bond-buying efforts─often called ”quantitative easing“ or dubbed QE and QE2─will pass without any significant disruptions to markets or the economy.

　　美聯(lián)儲多位官員，以及很多經(jīng)濟學家和投資者都認為，美聯(lián)儲兩輪大規(guī)模債券收購行動（通常稱為“定量寬松”，簡稱QE和QE2）的結(jié)束不會給市場或經(jīng)濟造成任何較大的擾亂。

　　Laurence Kantor, head of research at Barclays Capital, argues that markets already reflect the widespread understanding that the Fed will stop buying bonds and will then hang on to its portfolio for some time. Its portfolio currently amounts to more than $2 trillion of securities, when counting Treasury bonds and mortgage debt.

　　巴克萊資本公司(Barclays Capital)研究部門負責人坎托(Laurence Kantor)說，從市場行情已經(jīng)可以看出，投資者普遍認為美聯(lián)儲將停止購買債券，然后其資產(chǎn)組合將有一段時間保持不變。如果將美國國債和房貸債券包括在內(nèi)，目前美聯(lián)儲持有的資產(chǎn)就是超過2萬億美元的證券。

　　Holding on to the securities the Fed has bought, the thinking goes, should keep markets stable. ”It's not the beginning of the Fed tightening, it's the end of the Fed easing,“ Mr. Kantor says.

　　Getty Images美聯(lián)儲主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)這種想法認為，持有美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)購買的證券應當會讓市場保持穩(wěn)定。坎托說，這不是美聯(lián)儲收緊的開始，而是美聯(lián)儲寬松政策的結(jié)束。

　　Many believe such low interest rates will keep driving investors into assets that bring higher returns than Treasurys─pushing up stocks, commodities and other riskier assets.

　　很多人相信，目前的低利率將繼續(xù)鼓勵投資者買入回報高于美國國債的資產(chǎn)，從而推高股票、大宗商品和其他高風險資產(chǎn)的價格。

　　But a tame market response isn't certain. Some big investors worry that interest rates will rise when the Fed stops its purchases, which have amounted to 85% of all government debt sold by Treasury since the program started in November. In this view, when such a big buyer disappears, the markets are bound to feel the absence.

　　但市場的反應不一定是溫和可控的。一些大投資者擔心美聯(lián)儲停止收購時利率將會上升。自收購國債的計劃在去年11月啟動以來，美國財政部發(fā)行的全部國債中有85%被美聯(lián)儲收購。如此看來，當這么大的一個買家消失之后，市場肯定會有反應。

　　"When QE2 ends in June, then $1.5 trillion worth of check-writing per year basically disappears," says William Gross, who oversees the $1.2 trillion portfolio of Pacific Investment Management Co. "It will be a big event."

　　太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 1.2萬億美元投資的管理人格羅斯(William Gross)說，當QE2在6月份結(jié)束時，每年價值1.5萬億美元的購買量就消失了；這將是一件大事。

　　As investors adjust to the new dynamic, the transition away from the bond-buying strategy could mean an end to the roaring rally experienced by stocks, commodities and riskier bonds and currencies, and introduce a period of volatility.

　　隨著投資者努力適應新的環(huán)境，美聯(lián)儲棄用收購債券的策略可能使股市、大宗商品和高風險債券與貨幣經(jīng)歷的飆升行情告一段落，然后進入一段波動時期。

　　Although Fed officials are almost certain to discuss the nature and timing of what they call their "exit strategy" at this week's two-day meeting, they aren't expected to give much firm guidance in their end-of-meeting statement or in the press conference that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold Wednesday afternoon.

　　雖然美聯(lián)儲官員幾乎肯定要在本周為時兩天的會議期間討論所謂“退出策略”的性質(zhì)和時間，但在會后聲明或美聯(lián)儲主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)周三下午舉行的新聞發(fā)布會當中，預計他們不會給出多少明確的指引。

　　The keys to the timing of the Fed's exit are the health of the U.S. economy and level of inflation. The Fed expects unemployment to remain high and inflation to recede, but both are uncertain right now.

　　美聯(lián)儲何時退出，關(guān)鍵在于美國經(jīng)濟的健康狀況和通脹水平。美聯(lián)儲預計失業(yè)率繼續(xù)高企、同時通貨膨脹減弱，但兩方面目前都不確定。

　　Economic forecasters expect the U.S. Commerce Department to report Friday that the economy grew less than 2% in the first quarter, on an inflation-adjusted annual rate. Most blame bad weather, higher energy costs and the effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. They anticipate a rebound to 3% growth for the rest of the year.

　　經(jīng)濟分析師預計，美國商務部會在周五公布，美國經(jīng)濟第一季度經(jīng)通脹因素調(diào)整后按年率計算增長了不到2%。大多數(shù)人將其歸咎于惡劣的天氣、能源成本上升以及日本地震和海嘯的沖擊。他們預計今年后三個季度的經(jīng)濟增幅會反彈至3%。

　　Inflation, meanwhile, has been pushed up by rising commodity prices. Top Fed officials have signaled that they expect this to be transitory. But if it persists, or if the public becomes more convinced inflation is on the rise, the Fed's patience could be tested.

　　與此同時，不斷上漲的大宗商品價格一直在推高通脹。美聯(lián)儲高級官員已經(jīng)表示，他們預計這種局面是暫時的。但如果這種狀況持續(xù)下去，或者公眾開始更確信通脹在升級，那么美聯(lián)儲的耐心就要接受考驗了。

　　Fed officials on Wednesday will disclose their updated economic forecasts. They are likely to show higher 2011 inflation forecasts and could show a slight downgrade to the near-term growth outlook; the 2012 outlook might not change much.

　　美聯(lián)儲官員周三將發(fā)布最新的經(jīng)濟預測數(shù)據(jù)，2011年通脹預測數(shù)據(jù)可能會更高，短期增長前景展望可能會略有下調(diào)，2012年的展望可能不會有多大變化。

　　Some Fed officials are ready to get on with tightening credit either by raising short-term interest rates or selling off some of the Fed's portfolio of securities. But Mr. Bernanke and his closest lieutenants─Janet Yellen and William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, which makes major interest-rate decisions─have indicated they aren't in a rush.

　　一些聯(lián)儲官員準備通過上調(diào)短期利率或出售聯(lián)儲部分證券組合繼續(xù)收緊信貸。但貝南克及其最親密的副手耶倫（Janet Yellen）和達德利（William Dudley）已經(jīng)表示他們并不急于這樣做。達德利是紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）行長和聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）副主席，而FOMC負責做出重大的利率決定。

　　Markets currently anticipate the Fed will move to tighten credit at the very end of this year or early next. The economy, in other words, will remain awash in cheap credit.That view has helped to power the stock market recently.

　　目前市場預測美聯(lián)儲會在今年年末或明年年初收緊信貸。也就是說，美國經(jīng)濟依然會充滿廉價信貸。這種觀點最近助推了股市上漲。

　　In the view of many Fed officials, the second round of bond-buying─QE2─ fulfilled most of its goals: It chased away the threat of deflation, or falling consumer prices, and it sent investors into stocks and other assets riskier than Treasury debt, enlarging the net worth of stock investors and cheering business executives. In addition, though the Fed wasn't explicit about this objective, it nudged down the value of the dollar, giving U.S. exports a lift by making them more affordable in foreign-currency terms.

　　在許多聯(lián)儲官員看來，第二輪債券購買行動（也就是第二輪量化寬松）實現(xiàn)了大部分目標：驅(qū)除了通貨緊縮或消費者價格下跌的威脅，讓投資者涌入股市或其他比國債風險更高的資產(chǎn)，增大了股票投資者的凈值，并讓企業(yè)高管歡欣鼓舞。此外，盡管美聯(lián)儲沒有明說，但這一政策確實導致了美元貶值，讓美國出口商品折算成外幣更便宜，從而提振了美國出口。

　　Critics say the Fed's actions also chased up commodities prices, draining household buying power. Fed officials counter that the commodity-price run has been driven by demand in developing countries combined with supply shortages.

　　批評人士說，美聯(lián)儲的行動還推高了大宗商品價格，削弱了家庭的購買力。美聯(lián)儲官員反駁稱，大宗商品全線漲價是由發(fā)展中國家需求增加和供應不足兩方面原因造成的。

　　Starting essentially last year on Aug. 27─the day Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke laid the groundwork for QE2─investors have flocked to riskier investments. Since Aug. 26 the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained 28%. Smaller, generally riskier stocks have done even better, with the small-company Russell 2000 Index gaining 41%. It stands just 1.15 shy of its all-time high set in 2007.

　　自去年8月27日開始，也就是聯(lián)儲主席貝南克為QE2奠定基礎那天開始，投資者紛紛涌向風險更高的投資。標準普爾500股指從8月26日以來攀升了28%。而成分股市值更小、總體而言投資風險更高的羅素2000指數(shù)漲了41%，只比2007年創(chuàng)下的歷史最高水平低1.15點。

　　Corporate bonds have rallied and commodity prices have risen sharply, too. Gold is up 22% since Aug. 26 and silver is up 143%, both hitting nominal record highs. Even subprime mortgage securities, which were largely blamed for causing the financial crisis, are back in demand.

　　公司債券的價格也出現(xiàn)回升，大宗商品價格大幅上揚。金價自8月26日以來上漲22%，銀價上漲143%，二者名義價格均創(chuàng)歷史新高。就連被廣泛指責造成此次金融危機的次級抵押貸款證券，其市場需求也在回升。

　　The biggest loser has been the U.S. dollar, the consequence of the Fed essentially printing more of them to buy bonds. The Fed's index of the value of the dollar against a broad basket of currencies is down 7.9% since Aug. 26.

　　美元一直是最大的輸家，這是聯(lián)儲實際上印制更多鈔票購買債券造成的。美聯(lián)儲用以跟蹤美元兌一籃子貨幣匯率的指數(shù)自8月26日以來跌了7.9%。