Instant messaging applications for mobile devices, such as BlackBerry Messenger, are becoming so popular that use of text messages by 15-24 year olds will fall by a fifth in many large markets including the UK, analysts predict.

　　分析師們預(yù)測(cè)，隨著移動(dòng)設(shè)備上的即時(shí)通訊應(yīng)用如BlackBerry Messenger (BBM)日益流行，在英國(guó)等許多大型市場(chǎng)的15至24歲用戶中，手機(jī)短信的使用量將下降五分之一。

　　Mobile Youth, a consultancy, forecasts that text, or SMS, volumes will drop by 20 percent in the next two years in regions including the UK, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil, where BBM is particularly popular among teenagers and students.

　　咨詢公司Mobile Youth預(yù)計(jì)，手機(jī)短信(SMS)未來(lái)兩年在英國(guó)、印度尼西亞、南非和巴西的總發(fā)送量將下降20%，在這些國(guó)家，BlackBerry Messenger在青少年和學(xué)生當(dāng)中尤為流行。

　　"We’ve seen SMS usage fall among young people and the main driver is BlackBerry,” said Graham Brown, director at Mobile Youth.

　　Mobile Youth公司董事格雷厄姆·布朗(Graham Brown)表示：“我們觀察到年輕人中的手機(jī)短信使用量出現(xiàn)下降，而黑莓(BlackBerry)是主要因素。”

　　BBM usage has exploded in many countries in recent years, with volumes increasing 500 percent.

　　近幾年BBM的使用量在許多國(guó)家出現(xiàn)爆炸式增長(zhǎng)，使用量增幅達(dá)500%。

　　More than 39m people use BBM, according to Research in Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, although it is yet to take off significantly in the US.

　　制造黑莓的Research in Motion (RIM)公司稱，使用BBM的用戶超過(guò)3900萬(wàn)人，盡管這項(xiàng)服務(wù)在美國(guó)尚未大規(guī)模流行。

　　Text messaging has been a cash cow for mobile operators in recent years but instant messaging services allow unlimited mobile chat without needing to pay for each transmission.

　　最近幾年手機(jī)短信一直是移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商的搖錢樹(shù)，但使用即時(shí)通訊服務(wù)可以不受限制地移動(dòng)聊天，而不需要為每條消息付費(fèi)。

　　BBM is free on BlackBerry devices, even for “pay and go” users with no monthly contract, while other smartphone apps such as Beluga and WhatsApp use minimal amounts of data, and charge a small one-off fee.

　　在黑莓手機(jī)上BBM是免費(fèi)的，即使對(duì)沒(méi)有包月費(fèi)的“隨用隨付”用戶也是如此，而其他智能手機(jī)應(yīng)用程序，如Beluga和WhatsApp，會(huì)使用極少量的數(shù)據(jù)流量，并收取少量的一次性費(fèi)用。

　　"Talking to some of the operators, BBM has certainly had an impact on their SMS revenue,” said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys.

　　Canalys公司高級(jí)分析師皮特?坎寧安(Pete Cunningham)表示：“與一些運(yùn)營(yíng)商的交談顯示，BBM肯定對(duì)他們的短信收入造成了影響。”

　　Richard Windsor, mobile analyst at Nomura, has predicted that instant messaging clients could hit SMS, although he has not seen any impact yet.

　　野村證券(Nomura)移動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)分析師理查德·溫莎(Richard Windsor)曾預(yù)測(cè)，即時(shí)通訊客戶端可能打擊手機(jī)短信，不過(guò)迄今他還沒(méi)有觀察到任何影響。

　　"Once it [SMS] starts to decline, I think it could continue to decline until it hits zero,” he said.

　　他說(shuō)：“（手機(jī)短信）一旦開(kāi)始下降，我認(rèn)為它會(huì)一路下降到零。”

　　Operators could stand to benefit in some ways from instant messaging because BBM used their network more efficiently than SMS, saving operating costs, said RIM.

　　RIM稱，即時(shí)通訊服務(wù)在某些方面也會(huì)對(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商有利，因?yàn)橄啾仁謾C(jī)短信，BBM能以更高效率使用運(yùn)營(yíng)商的網(wǎng)絡(luò)，節(jié)省運(yùn)行成本。