美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在走出自大蕭條以來(lái)程度最嚴(yán)重、歷時(shí)最長(zhǎng)的衰退。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，但其他人則認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇雖然會(huì)是持續(xù)的，但也是有氣無(wú)力的。一些人甚至說(shuō)，這兩種看法都不對(duì)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在短暫反彈后將再度陷入蕭條。

　　對(duì)飽受近兩年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之苦的美國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō)，此次經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的具體形式將決定有多少人會(huì)繼續(xù)失業(yè)，那些被削減了的公共服務(wù)是否能夠恢復(fù)，以及自己的儲(chǔ)蓄和投資能以多快的速度增值。

　　試圖對(duì)此次經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的形態(tài)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們都在考察以往歷次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的軌跡。但始于2007年12月的本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退兼具了以往多次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退各自不同的特征。

　　它像上世紀(jì)70和80年代的衰退那樣，經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出大幅下降，而那些年代在衰退結(jié)束后經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出都出現(xiàn)了大幅反彈。伴隨本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的信貸危機(jī)，也讓人回想起上世紀(jì)90年代初那些程度較為溫和的信貸風(fēng)波，它們?cè)鴮⒁粓?chǎng)相對(duì)短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退轉(zhuǎn)變成了一場(chǎng)歷時(shí)多年的緩慢經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

　　但將本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退與大多數(shù)以往衰退區(qū)別開(kāi)來(lái)的是一場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重的信貸收縮，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，其影響預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)持續(xù)多年。

　　無(wú)論本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出何種架構(gòu)，許多消費(fèi)者都無(wú)法從自己的周邊環(huán)境中體察出這一復(fù)蘇。失去的就業(yè)崗位是如此眾多，以致于當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始反彈時(shí)失業(yè)率仍將維持在高位。就在總體經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)開(kāi)始改善之際，大量仍在失業(yè)的美國(guó)人卻將耗盡他們的遣散費(fèi)和失業(yè)救濟(jì)金，從而面臨更加緊張的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。就算消費(fèi)者找到新工作，如果他們未來(lái)幾年中將再度失業(yè)，屆時(shí)其已經(jīng)耗盡的積蓄會(huì)使他們更不容易渡過(guò)難關(guān)。

　　美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇走到關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正逐步走出自上世紀(jì)大蕭條以來(lái)最漫長(zhǎng)、最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但是復(fù)蘇之路并不平坦。Sudeep Reddy認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇有三種可能。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的某些領(lǐng)域以及美國(guó)的某些地區(qū)有可能率先復(fù)蘇。例如，制造業(yè)和住房業(yè)都已經(jīng)歷了如此嚴(yán)重的萎縮，它們預(yù)計(jì)很快就將開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇。但陷入困境的金融業(yè)仍在不斷萎縮，原因是銀行業(yè)正在改善自己的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債狀況，從而延緩了金融業(yè)的復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程。

　　由于誰(shuí)也說(shuō)不準(zhǔn)本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的具體形式，因此美國(guó)人的心態(tài)也千差萬(wàn)別，從非常樂(lè)觀到極度擔(dān)憂，不一而足。最近幾個(gè)月，投資者似乎對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)將迅速反彈充滿了希望，他們推動(dòng)股市較3月份時(shí)低點(diǎn)上漲了40%以上?！度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》最新一次調(diào)查顯示，民間預(yù)測(cè)人士認(rèn)為，雖然美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正開(kāi)始擴(kuò)張，但明年只能緩慢或溫和增長(zhǎng)2%-3%.大多數(shù)企業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景依然心存疑慮，認(rèn)為明年仍將是艱難的一年。

　　深度下滑之后是快速反彈

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)歷了一場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重萎縮之后最常見(jiàn)的道路就是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)大幅反彈。在衰退最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期，雇主通常大規(guī)模裁員、減產(chǎn)以自保，消費(fèi)者則推遲了很多重大消費(fèi)支出項(xiàng)目，以致于經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸增長(zhǎng)會(huì)伴隨著劇烈的擴(kuò)張。

　　上世紀(jì)70-80年代的深度衰退之后，企業(yè)活動(dòng)反彈，幾個(gè)月內(nèi)，雇主就重新開(kāi)始迅速地招兵買馬。巴克萊旗下Barclays Capital首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬奇（Dean Maki）說(shuō)，沒(méi)有哪一場(chǎng)深度衰退之后是溫和復(fù)蘇的。事實(shí)證明，在以往的深度衰退結(jié)束時(shí)，大部分預(yù)測(cè)人士都過(guò)于悲觀了。他說(shuō)，很少有人期望能實(shí)現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)的增長(zhǎng)，即使增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)就明明白白地?cái)[在那里。

　　持強(qiáng)勁反彈觀點(diǎn)的預(yù)測(cè)人士預(yù)計(jì)，今年年底前，經(jīng)濟(jì)的年增長(zhǎng)速度將有3%-5%，為啟動(dòng)長(zhǎng)期復(fù)蘇提供所需的動(dòng)力。

　　企業(yè)將增產(chǎn)、招人，恢復(fù)為新的電腦和設(shè)備安排資金預(yù)算。股市的上漲將幫助恢復(fù)消費(fèi)者信心，刺激在汽車和家用電器等大件商品上的更多支出。一些消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)把重要的消費(fèi)支出項(xiàng)目推遲得很久，最終當(dāng)他們看到商店里有好買賣時(shí)，肯定會(huì)開(kāi)始購(gòu)買。房屋建設(shè)也觸底反彈，給了建筑業(yè)比過(guò)去三年更多一點(diǎn)兒的希望。

　　在自然反彈3到6個(gè)月后，政府財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃的大部分將會(huì)起作用。這將幫助在今年年底到2010年初保持住經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的勢(shì)頭，將經(jīng)濟(jì)完全推出低迷。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)焦慮令增長(zhǎng)緩慢

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)或許會(huì)反彈，不過(guò)在迅速反彈的道路上橫著很多障礙。支出和放貸的問(wèn)題可能會(huì)使復(fù)蘇步伐緩慢。

　　隨著失業(yè)率的上升（盡管升速較以前有所放緩），消費(fèi)者信心下降。房主在房?jī)r(jià)嚴(yán)重下滑后重新安排財(cái)務(wù)。家庭比這十年來(lái)大部分時(shí)間都更多地儲(chǔ)蓄。這會(huì)遏制消費(fèi)支出，而消費(fèi)支出占了經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)量的七成。

　　信貸危機(jī)對(duì)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的損害可能會(huì)持續(xù)多年。在銀行收縮資產(chǎn)負(fù)債規(guī)模的情況下，企業(yè)輕松獲得貸款的可能降低。對(duì)房主來(lái)說(shuō)也是如此，他們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)更難獲得新的貸款，而且需要付更高的首付。此外，隨著房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的暴跌，現(xiàn)有房主用作抵押的房子的價(jià)值不如以前高了。

　　Global Insight首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家高爾特（Nigel Gault）說(shuō)，經(jīng)濟(jì)還將在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)繼續(xù)面臨信貸壓力。

　　他說(shuō)，這是不要指望強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇將來(lái)自消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的一個(gè)原因。這并不意味著消費(fèi)支出不會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，而是它不會(huì)像以前的擴(kuò)張那樣發(fā)揮巨大的引領(lǐng)作用。

　　因此持增長(zhǎng)緩慢觀點(diǎn)的人認(rèn)為，在快速反彈之后，明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)更有可能以1%至2%的速度增長(zhǎng)，遠(yuǎn)低于在深度衰退后拉動(dòng)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)所需的4%至5%的增速。與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為遏制通貨膨脹而大幅加息相反，近期的房地產(chǎn)崩潰等泡沫破裂所造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退看來(lái)會(huì)帶來(lái)失業(yè)居高不下的復(fù)蘇。

　　企業(yè)正在想法設(shè)法充分利用現(xiàn)有的資源，而不是預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。

　　短暫復(fù)蘇過(guò)后是新一輪的蕭條

　　美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月很可能會(huì)因生產(chǎn)的回升而順其自然地受到提振。在此之后，它會(huì)在今年底和明年初得到財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃的一些推動(dòng)。

　　但之后又會(huì)怎樣呢？

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)是如此的疲弱，消費(fèi)者多年都不會(huì)看到有意義的加薪，他們通過(guò)借款驅(qū)動(dòng)支出的能力也會(huì)下降。因此，消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)進(jìn)行一些推遲良久的大宗采購(gòu)，然后捂好自己錢包，繼續(xù)省吃儉用。

　　恐慌期過(guò)后，企業(yè)對(duì)嚴(yán)重衰退后的大幅開(kāi)支仍會(huì)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。由于稅收的直線下降，州和地方政府可能繼續(xù)削減支出。銀行業(yè)的麻煩也未結(jié)束。隨著壞賬的增加，止贖現(xiàn)象仍在上升。

　　一旦來(lái)自聯(lián)邦政府的刺激效應(yīng)減弱，經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)缺乏諸如消費(fèi)開(kāi)支或企業(yè)投資這種主要的推動(dòng)力量，有可能再度回到收縮階段。1980年，在經(jīng)過(guò)短短6個(gè)月的衰退后，經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，但隨后又在一年內(nèi)再度陷入衰退。通貨膨脹率的飆升迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將利率提高到兩位數(shù)的水平，進(jìn)一步推高了借貸成本，引發(fā)了痛苦而漫長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。上世紀(jì)40年代末和50年代時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退就是在之前的衰退結(jié)束僅僅3年后又卷土重來(lái)的。這是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)可以從戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)等危機(jī)中反彈，但后來(lái)又發(fā)現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇無(wú)法持久。

　　美國(guó)政府的巨額支出加劇了目前的擔(dān)憂。部分經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家擔(dān)心，巨額赤字將推高利率，由此而提升消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的借貸成本。

　　The U.S. economy is pulling out of its deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression. Some economists expect a powerful recovery， others a sustained but muted one. Some even say it will be neither： a fleeting rebound quickly followed by a second slump.

　　For Americans beleaguered by almost two years of economic pain， the contours of the recovery will determine how many people linger without jobs， whether cutbacks to public services are restored and how quickly savings and investments gain value.

　　Economists trying to predict the shape of the recovery look for parallels in previous recessions. But the current downturn， which started in December 2007， has echoes from a multitude of economic slowdowns.

　　It featured the same kind of deep dive in economic output of the 1970s and 1980s recessions， which were followed by sharp rebounds. The credit shock from the latest downturn also recalls the milder credit headwinds of the early 1990s， which turned a relatively short recession into a slow multiyear recovery.

　　But what distinguishes this recession from most others before it is a severe credit contraction whose effects， some economists believe， are likely to linger for years.

　　Whatever the structure of the recovery， many consumers won't detect a change in their own circumstances. So many jobs have been lost that the unemployment rate will remain high when the economy begins to rebound. Large swaths of still-jobless Americans will have exhausted their severance payments and unemployment benefits， putting them under further strain even as the overall economy picks up again. And once consumers find new work， their depleted savings will leave them more vulnerable if they were to face another job loss in the next few years.

　　Some sectors of the economy —— and regions of the country —— are likely to recover earlier than others. The manufacturing and housing sectors， for instance， have contracted so deeply that they are likely to start recovering soon. But the troubled financial sector still is in the process of contracting as banks reshape their balance sheets， putting its recovery further down the road.

　　Facing a range of potential recovery scenarios， Americans are displaying everything from strong optimism to anxious caution. In recent months， investors have seemed hopeful about the prospects for a robust recovery， pushing stocks up more than 40% from their recession lows in March. Private-sector forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey say the economy is starting to expand， but to expect slow to modest growth of between 2% and 3% next year. Most businesses remain hesitant， bracing for a painful year ahead.

　　A Sharp Rebound

　　The most common path for the economy after a severe contraction has been a huge rebound in economic activity. Employers usually slashed their payrolls and output so sharply to protect themselves， and consumers postponed so many major purchases during the worst of the downturn， that a return to growth came with a fierce expansion.

　　After the deep recessions of the 1970s and 1980s， business activity rebounded and within several months employers were rapidly rebuilding their payrolls. 'You can't find a single deep recession that has been followed by a moderate recovery，' said Dean Maki， chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital. And most forecasters proved to be too pessimistic as prior deep recessions ended. 'Very few people were looking for the kind of growth numbers that were actually printed，' he said.

　　Forecasters who support the strong-rebound view expect the economy to grow at a 3% to 5% annual rate through the end of this year and provide the power needed to spark a longer-term recovery.

　　Businesses would ramp up output and hiring， restoring capital budgets for new computers and equipment. Rising stock values would help restore consumer confidence and spur additional spending for major goods such as cars and appliances. Some consumers put off key purchases for so long that eventually they must come around when they see good deals on store shelves. Housing construction also is coming off rock-bottom levels， giving the construction sector a bit more hope than it has had for the past three years.

　　After the natural rebound for three to six months， the bulk of the government's fiscal stimulus program would kick in. That would help sustain activity at the turn of the year and in early 2010， fully propelling the economy out of the downturn.

　　Economic Anxiety Keeps Growth Slow

　　The economy may bounce back， but plenty of barriers block the path to a sharp rebound. Trouble with spending and lending could potentially make the recovery a slog.

　　Consumer confidence is falling as job losses mount —— albeit at a slower pace than before —— and homeowners reshape their finances after severe declines in home values. Households are saving more than they have for most of this decade. That's suppressing consumer spending， the engine for 70% of economic output.

　　The credit shock is likely to impair the business and consumer sectors for years. Businesses are less likely to get easy loans as banks shrink their balance sheets. That's also true for homebuyers who are finding it harder to get new loans and would need to offer up larger downpayments. And， as real estate prices have tumbled， existing homeowners can't borrow against the value of their homes as they once did.

　　The credit headwinds 'will continue to hang over the economy for a long time，' said Nigel Gault， chief U.S. economist at Global Insight.

　　'It is one reason not to expect a strong recovery coming from the consumer side. It doesn't mean consumer spending won't grow， but it won't be a big leader the way it has been in previous expansions.'

　　So after a quick bounce， proponents of the slow-growth view say the economy is more likely to expand at a 1% to 2% rate over the next year —— well below the 4% to 5% that's necessary to heal the labor market after a deep downturn. Recessions caused by bursting bubbles like the recent housing collapse —— as opposed to sharp rate increases by the Federal Reserve to thwart inflation —— seem to be followed by jobless recoveries.

　　Businesses are finding ways to stretch their existing resources rather than expect a rebound.

　　A Brief Rebound，Then a New Slump

　　The economy is likely to see a natural boost in the coming months from a rebound in production. After that， it will get some help from the bulk of the fiscal stimulus program late this year and early next year.

　　But then what？

　　The slack in the economy is so large that consumers won't see meaningful raises for years， and they will have less borrowing power to drive their spending. So consumers could make some of the big purchases they have been postponing and then close their wallets to save more.

　　Businesses， after a frightening period， could remain cautious about ramping up after a severe downturn. State and local governments could continue to cut back as tax revenue plummets. And the troubles aren't over for the banking sector. Foreclosures are still shooting up as loans go bad.

　　Once the boost from the federal government diminishes， the economy could still be without a major driving force such as consumer spending or business investment to push it forward —— risking a return to its contractionary phase. After a brief six-month recession in 1980， the economy recovered but then relapsed within a year. Soaring inflation forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to double-digit levels， pushing borrowing costs higher and spurring a painful and lengthy recession. The late 1940s and 1950s each saw recessions return just three years after the prior downturns ended. That is because businesses can bounce back from crises —— such as wars —— but then find that the recoveries aren't durable.

　　Today's fear is compounded by the heavy federal spending. Some economists worry high deficits will push interest rates —— and borrowing costs —— higher for consumers and businesses.