美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)很快將不能從有利的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)中獲得增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力了。

　　美國(guó)商務(wù)部（Commerce Department）將于周三上午公布6月份貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們估計(jì)，美國(guó)6月份的貿(mào)易逆差將從5月份的260億美元增加到287億美元，這主要是受石油進(jìn)口價(jià)格不斷增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)。

　　雖然這仍遠(yuǎn)低于上年同期602億美元的貿(mào)易逆差，但卻標(biāo)志著過去四個(gè)月中有三個(gè)月貿(mào)易逆差出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)。這更加證實(shí)了許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家早前的懷疑，即去年秋季以來美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差迅速收窄的局面已經(jīng)結(jié)束。

　　進(jìn)口石油的價(jià)格在去年夏天不斷下跌之后，最近一直在持續(xù)上漲。更重要的是，有跡象顯示，占美國(guó)進(jìn)口商品大多數(shù)的非石油產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口，在經(jīng)歷了一段時(shí)間的下跌后已經(jīng)觸底。去年秋天美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)惡化導(dǎo)致進(jìn)口量下降。

　　大和證券美國(guó)公司（Daiwa Securities Americas）的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家墨蘭（Michael Moran）將財(cái)政部的關(guān)稅數(shù)據(jù)視為一個(gè)反映美國(guó)非石油產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口情況的不太理想指標(biāo)。他說，這一數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)季節(jié)性因素調(diào)整后6月份增長(zhǎng)了6.4%，這暗示非石油產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)口也在逐漸增加。

　　隨著美國(guó)企業(yè)重建被消化的庫(kù)存以及美國(guó)消費(fèi)者支出的觸底，美國(guó)對(duì)非石油類進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的需求應(yīng)不斷增長(zhǎng)。

　　雖然這表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況在改善，但也意味著最近幾個(gè)季度推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)主要?jiǎng)恿⒉粡?fù)存在。

　　貿(mào)易逆差縮小有利于GDP的增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)檫@意味著美國(guó)的出口增速快于進(jìn)口增速。

　　自從本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退開始以來，對(duì)外貿(mào)易一直對(duì)美國(guó)的GDP起著巨大的推升作用。有兩個(gè)季度，外貿(mào)因素甚至使美國(guó)GDP實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長(zhǎng)。而在其他幾個(gè)季度，對(duì)外貿(mào)易也減輕了美國(guó)GDP的惡化程度。以今年第一季度為例，雖然美國(guó)的GDP下降了6.4%，但如果沒有對(duì)外貿(mào)易的貢獻(xiàn)，GDP降幅會(huì)達(dá)到9%.

　　如果消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的樂觀情緒上升導(dǎo)致美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差增加，短期而言是個(gè)好跡象。

　　但美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期健康則有賴于消費(fèi)者放棄過度舉債和過度消費(fèi)的生活方式，正是美國(guó)人的這種生活方式導(dǎo)致美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差增大。

　　The U.S. economy soon will need to move ahead without help from favorable trade data.

　　The Commerce Department releases June trade data Wednesday morning. Economists estimate the U.S. trade deficit widened to $28.7 billion from $26 billion in May， driven largely by the rising price of imported oil.

　　Such a gap would still be much narrower than the $60.2 billion deficit a year earlier. But it would mark the third time in the past four months that the deficit has widened， and it would add to many economists' sneaking suspicions that the rapid diminution of the trade gap since last fall has ended.

　　The price of imported oil has been rising lately after falling last summer. More important， there are signs that nonpetroleum imports —— the bulk of trade —— may have bottomed after sinking when the economy worsened last fall.

　　Michael Moran， chief economist at Daiwa Securities Americas， watches Treasury Department customs duties as an imperfect gauge of nonpetroleum imports. They rose by a seasonally adjusted 6.4% in June， according to Mr. Moran， suggesting nonpetroleum imports edged higher as well.

　　As U.S. businesses rebuild spent inventories and as consumer spending finds a floor， demand for nonpetroleum imports should keep rising.

　　That signals a healthier economy， but will mean that a major prop for gross domestic product in recent quarters will go away.

　　In the accounting of GDP， a shrinking trade gap bolsters growth because foreign customers are buying what the U.S. makes at a faster rate than Americans are buying foreign-made stuff.

　　Since the recession began， trade's contribution to overall GDP has been huge. In two quarters， it was big enough to turn GDP positive. In most other quarters， it kept a bad GDP print from being much worse. In the first quarter， for example， GDP fell 6.4%， but would have been down 9% without the benefit of trade.

　　If a wider trade gap is driven by consumers and businesses feeling friskier， that is a good sign for the short term.

　　The economy's long-term health， however， depends on consumers resisting the excessive borrowing-and-spending ways that widened the trade gap in the first place.