就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的狀況可能不久就會(huì)改善了。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)計(jì)，這種改善并不會(huì)體現(xiàn)在周五公布的7月份就業(yè)報(bào)告中。他們估計(jì)7月份的非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)減少了275，000人，這個(gè)月的失業(yè)率升至9.7%.

　　即使7月份的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)出人意料，但它對(duì)就業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的影響也不會(huì)很大。如果這個(gè)月的非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)減少450，000人，將會(huì)令華爾街感到苦惱，也意味著美國總的就業(yè)人數(shù)減少了0.3%.而如果7月份的非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)只減少150，000人，令市場(chǎng)感到欣慰，則意味著美國就業(yè)總?cè)藬?shù)下降0.1%.0.3%和0.1%的差距說明不了什么問題。

　　而從某些角度看，就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)則有明顯改善。每周首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)的四周移動(dòng)平均值目前已比6月底下降了10% .據(jù)High Frequency Economics的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家謝弗德森（Ian Shepherdson）估計(jì)，這意味著每個(gè)月少失業(yè)約20萬人。

　　在此前一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張中，美國雇主實(shí)際上并沒有大量增雇人手，這意味著當(dāng)本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退2007年12月開始時(shí)，非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)可能已處于相對(duì)緊缺狀態(tài)。若果真如此，當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)增長時(shí)，雇主們可能需要迅速填補(bǔ)一些因恐慌性裁員而空出的崗位。

　　德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家拉弗格納（Joseph LaVorgna）最近寫道，非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)未來幾個(gè)月出人意料大幅增加的可能性提高了。

　　但就業(yè)狀況改善不應(yīng)與就業(yè)市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)活力混為一談。大多數(shù)證據(jù)依然顯示，中、長期內(nèi)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)仍將處于疲弱狀態(tài)。

　　如果此前兩輪經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張中那種債務(wù)推動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長今后永遠(yuǎn)無法完全再現(xiàn)，那么市場(chǎng)對(duì)就業(yè)者的需求量將會(huì)下降。加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家德?。˙rad DeLong）說，就像以往兩輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退那樣，雇主有可能利用經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷之機(jī)用科技手段永久性取代工人的位置，或是將就業(yè)崗位遷至美國以外。

　　舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco）的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，與以往的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退相比，本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的失業(yè)者中，臨時(shí)性被裁者所占的比例下降了，這意味著與以往的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇相比，本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中重返以往工作崗位的人可能也會(huì)減少。

　　股票市場(chǎng)將解決失業(yè)問題的希望寄托在美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)（Fed）有可能將低利率水平保持更長一段時(shí)間上。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)這種做法眼下可能會(huì)令投資者欣慰，但如果股市在資金推動(dòng)下上漲至經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面所無力支撐的高度，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的這種做法將為日后造成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　The job market might start producing better numbers soon.

　　Economists don't expect them to show up in the July employment report Friday. They estimate nonfarm payrolls shed 275，000 jobs and unemployment rose to 9.7%.

　　If the figures do surprise， it won't be in a statistically significant way. A payroll decline of 450，000， which would mortify Wall Street， would mean a 0.3% decline in total payrolls. A market-friendlier decline of 150，000， on the other hand， would represent a 0.1% decline. Percentagewise， the difference is a crapshoot.

　　At some point， jobs data should improve meaningfully. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims is down 10% from late June. That translates into about 200，000 fewer job cuts a month， estimates High Frequency Economics economist Ian Shepherdson.

　　Employers didn't exactly gorge on workers in the previous expansion， meaning payrolls may have been relatively lean when the downturn started in December 2007. If so， employers might need to quickly undo some panicky layoffs when growth returns.

　　‘The risk of a substantial upward surprise on payrolls over the next few months has risen，' Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna wrote recently.

　　Still， improvement shouldn't be confused with vigor. Most evidence still suggests an anemic job market longer term.

　　If some portion of the debt-fueled growth of the past two expansions is gone forever， then there will be less demand for workers. As in the past couple of recessions， employers will likely use the downturn to permanently replace workers with technology or send jobs outside the U.S.， suggests economist Brad DeLong of the University of California， Berkeley.

　　The percentage of unemployed workers on temporary layoff is lower than in past recessions， according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco， meaning fewer workers might get called back to work than in past recoveries.

　　The stock-market silver lining of stubborn unemployment is that the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates low for longer. That might make investors happy now， but it raises risks down the road if liquidity-pumped markets outpace fundamentals.