韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)第二季度表現(xiàn)出色，創(chuàng)下了5年多來的最快增速；外界由此預(yù)計(jì)，亞洲第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體韓國的復(fù)蘇是可持續(xù)的。

　　但韓國央行警告稱，鑒于韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)對出口的依賴程度，今年下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢很大程度上仍不明朗。韓國1萬億美元經(jīng)濟(jì)總量中，出口占據(jù)了一半的比重。

　　Associated Press韓國首爾的一家鞋鋪準(zhǔn)備開門營業(yè)，照片攝于2009年4月24日不過，這種強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)以及近期的諸多證據(jù)表明，亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能正在好轉(zhuǎn)，它們在當(dāng)前全球金融危機(jī)中最糟糕的時(shí)刻已經(jīng)過去。中國上周公布了強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)據(jù)。

　　韓國央行周五早間公布，經(jīng)季節(jié)性因素調(diào)整，截至6月30日的3個(gè)月，韓國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）較上一季度增長2.3%.今年第一季度韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速僅為0.1%.

　　這是韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)自2003年第四季度增長2.6%以來的最快增速。

　　韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)第二季度較上年同期下滑2.5%，降幅低于第一季度的4.2%.

　　韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)當(dāng)季表現(xiàn)與韓國央行本月早些時(shí)候公布的初步預(yù)計(jì)一致，基本符合道瓊斯通訊社（Dow Jones Newswires）的調(diào)查預(yù)期。該調(diào)查預(yù)計(jì)，第二季度韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)較上季度增長2.4%，較上年同期下滑2.5%.

　　韓國央行經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)部門負(fù)責(zé)人Kim Myung-kee在新聞發(fā)布會上表示，今年第二季度產(chǎn)品出口明顯回升，而國內(nèi)需求開始積聚動能。

　　當(dāng)季出口較上季度增長14.7%，第一季度為下滑3.4%.私人支出增長3.3%，增速快于第一季度的0.4%.

　　資本投資增長8.4%，同樣推動了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，第一季度為下滑11.2%.

　　韓國央行表示，增長前景很大程度上取決于出口表現(xiàn)。

　　Kim表示，國內(nèi)就業(yè)市場依然脆弱，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然面臨著雙重下挫。出口增長將在很大程度上決定韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇步伐。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)的評估較為樂觀。

　　摩根士丹利負(fù)責(zé)研究的副總裁林琰（Sharon Lam）表示，隨著全球需求繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，韓國出口很有可能復(fù)蘇步伐快于其他國家。他說，韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)將從中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇中受益，因?yàn)轫n國是中國第二大進(jìn)口來源。

　　中國上周公布，第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)較上年同期增長7.9%，增速快于第一季度的6.1%.去年韓國GDP中，對中國的出口占到了12%.

　　韓國政府將今年將近65%的預(yù)算投在了上半年，意在提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

　　韓國央行已經(jīng)連續(xù)五個(gè)月將基準(zhǔn)利率維持在2%的歷史低位。去年10月至今年2月，韓國央行累積減息了325個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

　　大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，今年余下時(shí)間韓國央行會維持政策利率不變。

　　韓國央行本月早些時(shí)候表示，預(yù)計(jì)2009年韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)將收縮1.6%，此前預(yù)期為收縮2.4%.韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)去年增長了2.2%.

　　The South Korean economy roared back to life in the second quarter to put up its best quarterly performance in more than five years， raising hopes that the recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy is sustainable.

　　The central bank， however， cautioned that the outlook for the second half of the year is largely uncertain， given the country's reliance on exports， which account for half of the $1-trillion economy.

　　Still， the performance added to recent evidence that Asian economies may be turning the corner and past their worst point of the current global financial downturn. Last week， China unveiled stellar growth figures for its economy.

　　Earlier Friday， the Bank of Korea said that gross domestic product in the three months ended June 30 rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3% from a quarter earlier. That compares with growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter.

　　The performance was the best since the fourth quarter of 2003， when GDP grew 2.6% from a quarter earlier.

　　From a year earlier， the economy shrank 2.5% after contracting 4.2% on year in the first quarter.

　　The performance matched the central bank's initial estimate earlier this month and was also largely in line with a Dow Jones Newswires poll that had predicted a 2.4% on-quarter rise and 2.5% on-year decline.

　　'Exports of goods rebounded significantly， while domestic demand began gaining momentum in the second quarter，' Kim Myung-kee， a director-general at the central bank's Economic Statistics Department， said at a media briefing.

　　Export volume jumped 14.7% on quarter， following a 3.4% decline in the first quarter. Private spending gained 3.3%， accelerating from a gain of 0.4% in the quarter earlier.

　　A 8.4% increase in capital investment - reversing a 11.2% decline in the first quarter - also contributed to growth.

　　Going forward， the central bank said that much would depend on export performance.

　　'The domestic jobs market is fragile and the U.S. economy still faces a double dip，' said Kim. 'Growth in exports will largely determine the pace of a rebound in the Korean economy.'

　　Economists seemed more upbeat in their assessment of the economy.

　　'As global demand continues to improve……Korea's exports are well positioned to recover faster than others……，' said Sharon Lam， Vice President， Research， at Morgan Stanley. 'Korea stands to benefit from any strong rebound in China， as it is China's second-largest import source.'

　　Last week， China said its economy grew 7.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier， accelerating from growth of 6.1% in the first quarter. Exports to China accounted for 12% of Korea's GDP last year.

　　The South Korean government has frontloaded almost 65% of its main budget in the first half of this year to boost the economy.

　　For its part， the central bank has kept its key interest rate steady at a record low of 2% for five months now. It slashed the rate by 325 basis points between October and February.

　　Most economists expect the central bank to stand pat on the policy rate for the rest of the year.

　　Earlier this month， the BOK said it expects the economy to contract 1.6% for the whole of 2009， compared with an earlier forecast for a shrinkage of 2.4%. The economy grew 2.2% last year.