瑞士信貸集團(tuán)（Credit Suisse Group）確認(rèn)了自己的地位——金融危機(jī)中的贏家之一。

　　瑞信第二季度基本收入較前一季度增長62%，同時(shí)公布基本股權(quán)收益為27.4%，這一水平是投資銀行在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期杠桿極高的情況下才能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。

　　Bloomberg News/Landov瑞士信貸第二季度業(yè)績不錯(cuò)，但在保持頂尖投行地位上將面臨挑戰(zhàn)。保持這樣的水平將會(huì)是個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)。瑞信本身的長期股權(quán)收益目標(biāo)為20%.而隨著競爭重新加劇，股權(quán)等業(yè)務(wù)的利潤率也承受著壓力。

　　但市場份額的增加可能更具可持續(xù)性。以機(jī)構(gòu)經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)為例。瑞信已經(jīng)進(jìn)入全球前三名，對沖基金一旦復(fù)蘇，瑞信就將受益。

　　瑞信早就調(diào)整了業(yè)務(wù)模式，縮減了杠桿、降低了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、退出了波動(dòng)性強(qiáng)的資本密集型業(yè)務(wù)，將重點(diǎn)集中在委托業(yè)務(wù)方面。投資銀行和私人銀行業(yè)務(wù)的整合也取得了成效。

　　瑞信目前擁有十分堅(jiān)實(shí)的資本狀況，第一級(jí)資本比率為15.5%，信貸敞口也在可掌控的范圍內(nèi)。與大多數(shù)歐洲同行的做法不同，瑞信并未將資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到銀行帳戶內(nèi)，而是按市值計(jì)價(jià)。結(jié)果是，瑞信甚至還得以留出更多現(xiàn)金，用于可能的增加派息。

　　沒錯(cuò)，大部分好消息是在價(jià)格方面。其股價(jià)為有形帳面價(jià)值2.5倍。但隨著投資者越來越重視市盈率，同時(shí)分析師可能上調(diào)收益預(yù)期，瑞信股價(jià)還可能繼續(xù)上漲。

　　摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的預(yù)測遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)先于其他機(jī)構(gòu)，其預(yù)計(jì)瑞信2010年市盈率僅為9倍。

　　Credit Suisse Group has confirmed its position as one of the winners from the financial crisis.

　　In the second quarter， underlying earnings rose 62% from the previous quarter and the Swiss bank reported an underlying return on equity of 27.4%， the sort of level investment banks only managed in the boom with massive leverage.

　　Sustaining this will be a challenge. Credit Suisse itself has a long-term ROE target of 20%. And margins already are coming under pressure in businesses such as equities as competition returns.

　　But market-share gains may be more sustainable. Take prime brokerage. Credit Suisse has entered the global top three， positioning it to benefit from any hedge-fund revival.

　　Credit Suisse was early to adapt its business model by cutting leverage， reducing risk， exiting volatile and capital-intensive businesses and focusing on client business. The integration between the investment bank and private bank also is paying off.

　　Credit Suisse now boasts a robust capital position， with a Tier 1 ratio of 15.5%， and manageable credit exposures. Unlike most of its European peers， it didn't transfer assets to its banking book but marked them to market. The result： Credit Suisse has even been able to set aside more cash for a possible increased dividend.

　　True， much good news is in the price. The shares trade at 2.5 times tangible book value. But with investors increasingly focused on earnings multiples and with analyst earnings upgrades likely， the shares could run further.

　　Morgan Stanley， whose forecasts are well ahead of others， reckons the shares trade at just nine times 2010 earnings.