China's Roadmap
中國(guó)繪制經(jīng)濟(jì)路線圖
1. China is about to adopt its 11th five-year plan, setting the stage for the continuation of probably the most remarkable economic transformation in history. while improving the well-being of almost a quarter of the world's population. Never before has the world seen such sustained growth; never before has there been so much poverty reduction.
1、中國(guó)即將實(shí)施第十一個(gè)五年規(guī)劃。這是旨在造福于世界近1／4的人口，為或許是歷史上最為可觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的持續(xù)發(fā)展所做的準(zhǔn)備。在世界范圍內(nèi)這樣可持續(xù)的發(fā)展前所未見(jiàn)，如此大規(guī)模的脫貧亦史無(wú)前例。
2. Part of the key to China's long-run success has been its almost unique combination of pragmatism and vision. While much of the rest of' the developing world, following the Washington Consensus, has been directed at a quixotic quest for higher GDP, China has once again made clear that it seeks sustainable and more equitable increases in real living standards.
2、中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期的成功發(fā)展，部分原因在于其近乎無(wú)可比擬地將遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)卓識(shí)與腳踏實(shí)地合而為一。華盛頓共識(shí)形成后，在其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家都不切實(shí)際地致力于提高國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值時(shí)，中國(guó)再次重申，人民實(shí)際生活水平的持續(xù)、均衡提高，才是其追求的目標(biāo)。
3. China realizes that it has entered a phase of economic growth that is imposing enormous—and unsustainable—demands on the environment. Unless there is a change in course, living standards will eventually be compromised. That is why the new five-year plan places great emphasis on the environment.
3、 中國(guó)意識(shí)到其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展已進(jìn)入了給環(huán)境造成沉重負(fù)擔(dān)的階段，這個(gè)負(fù)擔(dān)甚至讓發(fā)展難以為繼。除非改變做法，否則將最終危及人民生活水平的提高。這也是新的五年規(guī)劃把環(huán)境問(wèn)題當(dāng)作重中之重的原因所在。
4. Even many of the more backward parts of China have been growing at a pace that would be a marvel, were it not for the fact that other parts of the country are growing even more rapidly. While this has reduced poverty, inequality has been increasing, with growing disparities between cities and rural areas, and between coastal regions and the interior.
4、即使中國(guó)許多更為落后的地區(qū)在以令人驚異的速度發(fā)展，也不能就此忽視這個(gè)國(guó)家的其他地區(qū)發(fā)展速度更為迅捷的事實(shí)。隨著城市和農(nóng)村、沿海和內(nèi)地差距的增大，在削減貧窮的同時(shí)，不平等也在加劇。
5. This year's World Bank World Development Report explains why inequality, not just poverty, should be a concern, and China's 11th five-year plan attacks the problem head-on. The government has for several years talked about a more harmonious society, and the plan describes ambitious programs for achieving this.
5、今年《世界銀行的世界發(fā)展報(bào)告》說(shuō)明了人們?yōu)楹胃撽P(guān)注不平等問(wèn)題，而不光是貧窮問(wèn)題。中國(guó)第十一個(gè)五年規(guī)劃，也著手正面解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。近年來(lái)政府一直宣傳建立更和諧社會(huì)，第十一個(gè)五年規(guī)劃則描述了實(shí)現(xiàn)和諧社會(huì)的宏圖大計(jì)。
6. China recognizes, too, that what separates less developed from more developed countries is not only a gap in resources, but also a gap in knowledge. So it has laid out bold plans not only to reduce that gap, but to create a basis for independent innovation.
6、中國(guó)也認(rèn)識(shí)到，落后國(guó)家和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家不僅在資源上存在著差距，在知識(shí)上也同樣有相當(dāng)距離。因此中國(guó)制定了大膽的計(jì)劃，不僅要縮小這個(gè)差距，還要為獨(dú)立創(chuàng)新奠定基礎(chǔ)。
7. China's role in the world and the world's economy has changed, and the plan reflects this, too. Its future growth will have to be based more on domestic demand than on exports, which will require increases in consumption. Indeed, China has a rare problem: excessive savings. People save partly because of weaknesses in government social-insurance programs; strengthening social security （pensions） and public health and education will simultaneously reduce social inequalities, increase citizens' sense of well-being, and promote current consumption.
7、中國(guó)在全球和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演的角色已經(jīng)改變，這一點(diǎn)在五年規(guī)劃中也有所反映。中國(guó)未來(lái)的發(fā)展將不得不更多地依靠國(guó)內(nèi)需求而非出口，這就需要擴(kuò)大國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)。的確，中國(guó)面對(duì)的問(wèn)題十分罕見(jiàn)：那就是儲(chǔ)蓄過(guò)多。人們大量?jī)?chǔ)蓄的部分原因在于政府的社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃存在缺陷，強(qiáng)化社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)（養(yǎng)老金）、公共衛(wèi)生和教育之際，亦將減少社會(huì)不平等，增強(qiáng)人們的幸福感并促進(jìn)時(shí)下消費(fèi)。
8. If successful—and, so far, China has almost always surpassed even its own high expectations—these adjustments may impose enormous strains on a global economic system that is already unbalanced by the US' huge fiscal and trade deficits. If China saves less—and if, as officials have announced, it pursues a more diversified policy of investing its reserves—who will finance the US trade deficit of more than US$2 billion a day? This is a topic for another day, but that day may not be far off.
8、一直以來(lái)，中國(guó)幾乎每次都能夠超額完成自己設(shè)定的最高日標(biāo)。眼下的目標(biāo)如果實(shí)現(xiàn)，這些調(diào)整可能會(huì)給因美國(guó)的巨額財(cái)政和貿(mào)易赤字導(dǎo)致本已失衡的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系帶來(lái)巨大壓力。如果中國(guó)的儲(chǔ)蓄減少，如果像其官方公布的，中國(guó)實(shí)行—種更多樣的儲(chǔ)蓄投資政策，那么誰(shuí)將認(rèn)購(gòu)美國(guó)一天20多億美元的貿(mào)易赤字?這個(gè)問(wèn)題目前似乎并非迫在眉睫，但我們距離那天已為時(shí)不遠(yuǎn)。
9. With such a clear vision of the future, the challenge will be implementation. China is a large country, and it could not have succeeded as it has without widespread decentralization. But decentralization raises problems of its own.
9、中國(guó)對(duì)未來(lái)具有如此明確的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)卓識(shí)，挑戰(zhàn)則在寸：如何貫徹落實(shí)。中國(guó)幅員遼闊，沒(méi)有廣泛的分權(quán)不會(huì)成功。但權(quán)力分散又會(huì)產(chǎn)生相應(yīng)的問(wèn)題。
10. Greenhouse gases, for example, are global problems. While the US says that it cannot afford to do anything about it, China's senior officials have acted more responsibly. Within a month of the adoption of the plan, new environmental taxes on cars, gasoline, and wood products were imposed: China was using market-based mechanisms to address its and the world's environmental problems.
10、例如，溫室氣體排放是個(gè)全球性的問(wèn)題。在美國(guó)宣稱對(duì)此無(wú)能為力之時(shí)，中國(guó)高級(jí)官員表現(xiàn)了更負(fù)責(zé)任的行為。在規(guī)劃被采納后的一個(gè)月內(nèi)，中國(guó)政府就對(duì)汽車、汽油和木制品征收了新的環(huán)境稅：中國(guó)正利用市場(chǎng)機(jī)制解決其自身和世界的環(huán)境問(wèn)題。
11. But the pressures on local government officials to deliver economic growth and jobs will be enormous. They will be sorely tempted to argue that, "If the US cannot afford to produce in a way that preserves our planet, how can we?" To translate its vision into action, the Chinese government will need strong policies, such as the environmental taxes already imposed.
11、但這對(duì)要發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的地方官員造成巨大的壓力。他們會(huì)很自然地辯解說(shuō)：“如果美國(guó)不能以環(huán)保方式生產(chǎn)，我們又怎么能夠做到?”為了把遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)變成行動(dòng)，中國(guó)政府需要推行強(qiáng)有力的政策，已經(jīng)開(kāi)始征收的環(huán)境稅即為一例。
12. As China has moved towards a market economy, it has developed some of the problems that have plagued the developed countries: special interests that clothe self-serving arguments behind a thin veil of market ideology.
12、隨著中國(guó)向市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)渡，一直困擾發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的問(wèn)題也在中國(guó)顯現(xiàn)：在薄薄的市場(chǎng)意識(shí)的面紗后，隱藏著有自私自利企圖的特殊利益集團(tuán)。
13. Some will argue for trickle-down economics: Don't worry about the poor, eventually everybody will benefit from growth. And some will oppose competition policy and strong corporate governance laws: Let Darwinian survival work its wonders. Growth arguments will be advanced to counter strong social and environmental policies: Higher gasoline taxes, for example, will kill our nascent auto industry.
13、有些人可能主張滴入式經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)；不必為窮人擔(dān)心，每個(gè)人最終都會(huì)從經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中獲益。有些人可能會(huì)反對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)政策，反對(duì)強(qiáng)有力的企業(yè)監(jiān)管法律，主張讓達(dá)爾文進(jìn)化論的適者生存顯現(xiàn)奇效。反對(duì)強(qiáng)化社會(huì)與環(huán)保政策的言論會(huì)日漸突出，比如有人會(huì)說(shuō)，高額的燃油稅會(huì)扼殺我們新生的汽車工業(yè)。
14. Such allegedly pro-growth policies would not only fail to deliver growth; they would threaten the entire vision of China's future. There is only one way to prevent this: open discussion of economic policies in order to expose fallacies and provide scope for creative solutions to the many challenges facing China today. US President George W. Bush has shown the dangers of excessive secrecy and confining decision-making to a narrow circle of sycophants. Most people outside China do not fully appreciate the extent to which its leaders, by contrast, have engaged in extensive deliberations and broad consultations （even with foreigners） as they strive to solve the enormous problems they face.
14、然而，這些所謂的主張發(fā)展的政策不僅不能帶來(lái)發(fā)展，還會(huì)威脅到事關(guān)中國(guó)未來(lái)的完整的遠(yuǎn)景規(guī)劃。阻止的辦法只有一個(gè)：那就是公開(kāi)探討經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。只有這樣才能揭穿謬論，有可能為當(dāng)今中國(guó)所面臨的諸多挑戰(zhàn)制定有創(chuàng)意的解決方案。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬治·W·布什暗箱操作，把決策權(quán)交給一小部分拍馬逢迎之徒的做法，已彰顯其害。相比這下，絕大多數(shù)外國(guó)人并不完全了解中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在努力解決所面對(duì)的重大問(wèn)題時(shí)，如何廣泛協(xié)商并多方聽(tīng)取意見(jiàn)（甚至包括外國(guó)人的意見(jiàn)）。
15. Market economies are not self-regulating. They cannot simply be left on autopilot, especially if one wants to ensure that their benefits are shared widely. But managing a market economy is no easy task. It is a balancing act that must constantly respond to economic changes. China's 11th five-year plan provides a roadmap for that response. The world watches in awe, and hope, as the lives of 1.3 billion people continue to be transformed.
15、市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)并非自我調(diào)整，不可以掛上自動(dòng)檔就放手不管。如果想確保大部分人都能分享市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的好處，就更不能放任自流。但管理市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)不是輕松的任務(wù)，它是一種必須按照經(jīng)濟(jì)變化隨時(shí)進(jìn)行調(diào)整的平衡之舉。中國(guó)第十一個(gè)五年規(guī)劃的藍(lán)圖，是對(duì)調(diào)整的適當(dāng)回應(yīng)。全世界以驚奇、期望的目光關(guān)注著13億中國(guó)人的生活持續(xù)發(fā)生的變化。
