The Earth's Learning Curve
人類的學(xué)習(xí)曲線
1. Imagine a chart that begins when man first appeared on the planet and tracks the economic growth of societies from then forward. It would be a long, fiat line until the late 16th or early 17th century, when it would start trending upward. Before then the fruits of productive labor were limited to a few elites—princes, merchants and priests. For most of humankind life was as the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes famously described it in 1651—"solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short." But as Hobbes was writing those words, the world around him was changing. Put simply, human beings were getting smarter.
1、想象一下，如果從人類首次在地球上出現(xiàn)開始畫一條曲線，追蹤在此之后人類社會(huì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展軌跡，那么會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)16世紀(jì)晚期或17世紀(jì)初期之前，是一條長長的沒有多少起伏的線條，之后這條線才開始上揚(yáng)。在此之前，生產(chǎn)勞動(dòng)的成果限制在少數(shù)上層人士—王子、商人和神職人員—手中。大多數(shù)人的生活就像英國哲學(xué)家托馬斯·霍布斯1651年所作的著名描述那樣：“孤獨(dú)、貧窮、骯臟、粗野、淺薄�！钡蔷驮诨舨妓箤懴逻@些的時(shí)候，他周圍的世界正在發(fā)生改變。簡(jiǎn)而言之，人類正變得越來越聰明。
2. People have always sought knowledge, of course, but in Western Europe at that time, men like Galileo, Newton and Descartes began to search systematically for ways to understand and control their environment. The scientific revolution, followed by the Enlightenment, marked a fundamental shift. Humans were no longer searching for ways simply to fit into a natural or divine order; they were seeking to change it. Once people found ways to harness energy—using steam engines—they were able to build machines that harnessed far more power than any human or horse could ever do. And people could work without ever getting tired. The rise of these machines drove the Industrial Revolution, and created a whole new system of life. Today the search for knowledge continues to produce an ongoing revolution in the health and wealth of humankind.
2、當(dāng)然，人們一直都在探索知識(shí)，但是在當(dāng)時(shí)的西歐，像伽利略、牛頓和笛卡爾這樣的人開始系統(tǒng)地尋求了解和支配周圍環(huán)境的方式�？茖W(xué)革命以及隨后出現(xiàn)的啟蒙運(yùn)動(dòng)標(biāo)志著一次根本性的轉(zhuǎn)變。人類不再只是尋求適應(yīng)自然法則或神的指示，他們正想方設(shè)法改變這一切。人類在找到駕馭能源—使用蒸氣機(jī)—的方式后，他們便得以制造出機(jī)器，而這些機(jī)器產(chǎn)生的力量遠(yuǎn)比任何人或馬所產(chǎn)生的力量大。這樣一來，人們工作起來就不再覺得累了。這些機(jī)器的出現(xiàn)帶動(dòng)了工業(yè)革命，創(chuàng)造了一種全新的生活方式。如今，對(duì)知識(shí)的探尋繼續(xù)在人類的健康和財(cái)富領(lǐng)域帶來一場(chǎng)持續(xù)不斷的革命。
3. If the rise of science marks the first great trend in this story, the second is its diffusion. What was happening in Britain during the Industrial Revolution was not an isolated phenomenon. A succession of visitors to Britain would go back to report to their countries on the technological and commercial innovations they saw there. Sometimes societies were able to learn extremely fast, as in the United States. Others, like Germany, benefited from starting late , leapfrogging the long-drawn-out process that Britain went through.
3、如果科學(xué)的興起是這一歷程中第一個(gè)偉大的動(dòng)向，那么第二個(gè)偉大的動(dòng)向就是科學(xué)的傳播。工業(yè)革命期間英國發(fā)生的一切并不是孤立的現(xiàn)象。接連不斷的到訪英國的人回國后描述了他們?cè)谀抢锟吹降目萍己蜕虡I(yè)上的創(chuàng)新。有時(shí)，某些社會(huì)能夠以極快的速度學(xué)習(xí)，正如美國那樣。另外一些社會(huì)—比如德國—因起步晚而受益，因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)竭^了英國所經(jīng)歷的漫長過程。
4. This diffusion of knowledge accelerated dramatically in recent decades. Over the last 30 years we have watched countries like Japan, Singapore, South Korea and now China grow at a pace that is three times that of Britain or the United States at the peak of the Industrial Revolution. They have been able to do this because of their energies and exertions, of course, but also because they cleverly and perhaps luckily adopted certain ideas about development that had worked in the West—reasonably free markets, open trade, a focus on science and technology, among them.
4、近幾十年來，知識(shí)的傳播速度大大加快。在最近30年里，我們目睹了日本、新加坡、韓國以及當(dāng)今中國取得的飛速發(fā)展，其發(fā)展速度是英國或美國在工業(yè)革命巔峰時(shí)發(fā)展速度的3倍。它們之所以能夠做到這一點(diǎn)，當(dāng)然是由于它們的能力與努力，不過也是由于它們明智地而且可能也是幸運(yùn)地采納了在西方行之有效的一些關(guān)于發(fā)展的理念—其中包括相當(dāng)自由的市場(chǎng)、開放的貿(mào)易和對(duì)科技的關(guān)注。
5. The diffusion of knowledge is the dominant trend of our time and goes well beyond the purely scientific. Consider the cases of Turkey and Brazil. If you had asked an economist 20 years ago how to think about these two countries, he would have explained that they were classic basket-case, Third World economies, with triple-digit inflation, soaring debt burdens, a weak private sector and snail's-pace growth. Today they are both remarkably well managed, with inflation in single digits and growth above 5 percent. And this shift is happening around the world. From Thailand to South Africa to Slovakia to Mexico, countries are far better managed economically than they have ever been. Even in cases where political constraints make it difficult to push far-reaching reforms, as in Brazil, Mexico or India, governments still manage their affairs sensibly, observing the Hippocratic oath not to do any harm.
5、知識(shí)的傳播是我們這個(gè)時(shí)代的主流，而且遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超越了單純的科技領(lǐng)域。想想土耳其和巴西的情況。如果你在20年前問一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家如何看待這兩個(gè)國家，他會(huì)說它們是典型的瀕臨崩潰的國家，第三世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體，通貨膨脹率達(dá)到3位數(shù)，債臺(tái)高筑，經(jīng)濟(jì)中的私營部分薄弱，增長速度極為緩慢。如今，它們?nèi)脊芾碛蟹�，通貨膨脹率降�?位數(shù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率則達(dá)到了5%以上。而且這種改變?cè)谑澜绺鞯囟荚诎l(fā)生。從泰國、南非、斯洛伐克到墨西哥，各國在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)比過去要好。就連像巴西、墨西哥及印度這樣的因政治限制難以推行全面改革的國家，政府仍然能夠明智地處理事務(wù)，恪守著不做任何有害之事的希波克拉底誓。
6. We are sometimes reluctant to believe in progress. But the evidence is unmistakable. The management of major economies has gotten markedly better in the last few years. Careful monetary policy has tempered the boom-and-bust economic cycles of the industrial world, producing milder recessions and fewer shocks. Every day one reads of a new study comparing nations in everything from Internet penetration to inflation. All these studies and lists are symbols of a learning process that is accelerating, reinforcing the lessons of success and failure. Call it a best-practice world.
6、我們有時(shí)不愿相信取得了進(jìn)步。但是證據(jù)是確鑿的。一些重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)體在過去幾年里管理水平明顯提高。謹(jǐn)慎的貨幣政策緩和了工業(yè)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮與蕭條循環(huán)交替的局面，讓經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退顯得較為和緩，造成較少的沖擊。每天，人們都會(huì)讀到對(duì)比各國狀況的新的研究結(jié)果，對(duì)比內(nèi)容涉及方方面面，從因特網(wǎng)的普及程度到通貨膨脹率的高低。這些研究和羅列標(biāo)志著一種不斷加速的學(xué)習(xí)過程，強(qiáng)化了成功的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和失敗的教訓(xùn)。這是一個(gè)崇尚最佳實(shí)踐方法的世界。
7. I realize that the world I am describing is the world of the winners. There are billions of people, locked outside global markets, whose lives are still accurately described by Hobbes's cruel phrase. But even here, there is change. The recognition of global inequalities is more marked today than ever before, and this learning is forcing action. There is more money being spent on vaccines and cures for diseases in Africa and Asia today than ever before in history. Foreign-aid programs face constant scrutiny and analysis. When things don't work, we learn that, too, and it puts a focus either on the aid program or on local governments to improve.
7、我意識(shí)到我在描述的這個(gè)世界是屬于勝利者的世界。還有數(shù)以十億計(jì)的人們被擋在全球市場(chǎng)的大門之外，霍布斯的那些殘酷用語仍然可以準(zhǔn)確地描述他們的生活。但是就連在這樣的地方也出現(xiàn)了變化。如今，人們比過去更加清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到全球不平等狀況，而且這種認(rèn)識(shí)正在促使人們采取行動(dòng)。如今，用在非洲與亞洲注射疫苗和治愈一些疾病上的錢比以往任何時(shí)候都要多。外國援助計(jì)劃經(jīng)常受到仔細(xì)審查與分析。如果采取的措施沒有發(fā)揮作用，我們會(huì)了解到這一點(diǎn)，這讓援助計(jì)劃和地方政府都成為關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，從而促使它們不斷改進(jìn)。
8. This may sound overly optimistic. There are losers in every race, but let not the worries over who is winning and losing the knowledge race obscure the more powerful underlying dynamic: knowledge is liberating. It creates the possibility for change and improvement everywhere. It can create amazing devices and techniques, save lives, improve living standards and spread information. Some will do well on one measure, others on another. But on the whole, a knowledge-based world will be a healthier and richer world.
8、這聽起來可能過于樂觀了。每場(chǎng)競(jìng)賽都有輸家，但是不要讓對(duì)于這場(chǎng)知識(shí)競(jìng)賽中誰輸誰贏的擔(dān)憂掩蓋更為重要的根本態(tài)勢(shì)：知識(shí)正在釋放出來。它可以創(chuàng)造出令人驚嘆的設(shè)備和技術(shù)，拯救生命，改善生活水準(zhǔn)，傳播信息。有些知識(shí)會(huì)在這個(gè)方面有效，另外一些知識(shí)在別的方面有效。不過總體說來，以知識(shí)為基礎(chǔ)的世界會(huì)是一個(gè)更為興旺和富足的世界。
9. The caveat I would make is not about one or another country's paucity of engineers or computers. These problems can be solved. But knowledge is not the same thing as wisdom. Knowledge can produce equally powerful ways to destroy life, intentionally and unintentionally. It can produce hate and seek destruction. Knowledge does not by itself bring any answer to the ancient Greek question "What is a Good Life?" It does not produce good sense, courage, generosity and tolerance. And most crucially, it does not produce the farsightedness that will allow us all to live together—and grow together—on this world without causing war, chaos and catastrophe. For that we need wisdom.
9、我想給出的告誡不是這個(gè)或那個(gè)國家缺少工程師或計(jì)算機(jī)。這樣的問題能夠解決。但是知識(shí)與智慧不是一回事。知識(shí)同樣能夠產(chǎn)生毀滅人類的強(qiáng)大手段，不管這種做法是蓄意的還是無意的。它能產(chǎn)生仇恨，讓人們想方設(shè)法實(shí)施毀滅行為。知識(shí)本身并不能回答那個(gè)古老的希臘問題：“什么樣的生活是好的生活?”它不能產(chǎn)生明智、勇氣、慷慨和寬容。最重要的是，它不能產(chǎn)生可以讓我們?cè)谶@個(gè)世界上不引發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、混亂和災(zāi)難而共同生活—共同發(fā)展—的遠(yuǎn)見。要想做到這一點(diǎn)，我們需要智慧。
