China has for the first time revealed the estimated size of its copper inventories, shedding light on one of the commodity market’s biggest mysteries.

　　中國首次披露其銅庫存的估計規(guī)模，由此揭開了大宗市場最大謎團(tuán)之一的面紗。

　　Chinese copper inventories stood at 1.9m tonnes at the end of 2010, more than the US consumes in a year, according to estimates by the state-backed China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association. The estimate is significantly higher than the 1.0m-1.5m tonnes range that foreign executives have assumed in the past.

　　根據(jù)政府支持的中國有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會(CNIA)的估算，2010年底，中國銅庫存為190萬噸，超過美國一年的消費量。這一估算遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于外國高管此前猜想的100萬至150萬噸。

　　The estimates, which were announced at a recent meeting of the International Copper Study Group but have not been made public, imply that real Chinese copper demand may have been lower than thought in recent years.

　　上述估算數(shù)據(jù)是最近在國際銅業(yè)研究組織(ICSG)的一次會議上宣布的，但尚未對外公布。這些數(shù)據(jù)意味著，近年中國的實際銅需求可能低于人們此前所認(rèn)為的水平。

　　Movements in Chinese inventories are one of the most important price drivers for the global copper market. A buying spree in early 2009 by the country, which now accounts for about 40 per cent of global copper demand, helped trigger a price rally from the lows of the financial crisis to new records this year above $10,000 a tonne.

　　中國庫存的動向，是全球銅市場最重要的價格驅(qū)動因素之一。目前中國約占全球銅需求的40%。中國方面在2009年早期的大舉買入，幫助引發(fā)了一輪價格漲勢，使得銅價從金融危機期間的低點，反彈至今年每噸逾1萬美元的新高。

　　The new stock estimates were presented at the last meeting of the ICSG, a group representing the governments of large copper-producing countries and consumers, in Lisbon at the end of September, according to several people who attended.

　　國際銅業(yè)研究組織代表大型產(chǎn)銅國和消費國政府。據(jù)多名在場的人士表示，上述中國銅庫存估算數(shù)據(jù)，是在該組織9月底在葡萄牙里斯本舉行的最近一次會議上提出來的。

　　According to people who were present at the ICSG meeting, the CNIA estimated that Chinese copper stocks, not including those kept at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses stood, at 1.768m tonnes at the end of 2010, up from 1.218m in 2009 and 282,000 in 2008. SHFE inventories were 132,000 tonnes in 2010, putting China’s total stocks at 1.9m tonnes.

　　與會人士稱，中國有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會估計，不包括在上海期貨交易所(SHFE)倉庫的庫存，中國2010年底的銅庫為176.8萬噸，高于2009年的121.8萬噸和2008年的28.2萬噸。上海期貨交易所的庫存在2010年達(dá)到13.2萬噸，使中國的銅庫存總規(guī)模達(dá)到190萬噸。

　　Other than exchange stocks, copper is held as working inventory by China’s manufacturing sector as well as by merchants, investors and the State Reserve Bureau, Beijing’s stockpiling agency. However, analysts, investors and traders are sceptical, noting that the world’s largest copper importer and consumer has an interest in inflating the size of its stockpiles, which could push prices down. The CNIA declined to comment.

　　除了期貨交易所的庫存外，中國的銅庫存都是作為即時儲備，保存單位包括中國的制造業(yè)企業(yè)、商家、投資者，以及國家物資儲備局(State Reserve Bureau)。不過，分析師、投資者和交易員們紛紛表示懷疑，他們指出，對全球最大的銅進(jìn)口國和消費國來說，夸大庫存是符合其利益的，因為這有可能壓低銅價。中國有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會拒絕置評。

　　“Whatever the Chinese say that stocks are, in the end they still need copper,” said George Cheveley, metals and mining portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management.

　　“無論中國方面說自己有多少庫存，到頭來他們還是需要銅，”天達(dá)資產(chǎn)管理公司(Investec Asset Management)金屬及礦業(yè)投資組合經(jīng)理喬治?切維利(George Cheveley)表示。

　　The ICSG has yet to incorporate the new estimates into its supply and demand data. “The decision by the members was to defer using the new stock data pending more detailed confirmation of its source and content,” said Daniel Edelstein, chair of the ICSG’s statistical committee.

　　國際銅業(yè)研究組織尚未將新的估算值納入其供需數(shù)據(jù)。“成員國決定推遲采用新的庫存數(shù)據(jù)，以便對其來源和內(nèi)容進(jìn)行更為詳盡的核實，”該組織統(tǒng)計委員會主席丹尼爾·埃德爾斯坦(Daniel Edelstein)表示。

　　Beijing releases only sketchy information about its supply, demand and inventories, creating a statistical vacuum that is contributing to price volatility.

　　中國對本國的供應(yīng)、需求和庫存情況僅發(fā)布零碎的信息，由此形成了一個統(tǒng)計真空，從而加劇了價格波動。