China does not quite fit the classic definition of stagflation: a persistent combination of high inflation with sub-par growth. But prices were still rising in July and growth, if still firm, appears to be fading. A regular reading of activity levels by purchasing managers within the service sector, published by HSBC/Markit on Monday, recorded a series-record low of 50.6 for the month of August. That signals no more than a marginal expansion. Six of the 13 official PMI series tracked by China’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing have dipped below 50, indicating contraction. Even in the world preoccupied by Europe, this should raise concern.

　　嚴(yán)格說來，中國的情況并不符合“滯脹”的經(jīng)典定義：通脹高企，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不振，兩者長期結(jié)合存在。但是，價(jià)格在7月份仍有上漲，而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長即便說仍算得上堅(jiān)挺，其勢(shì)頭似乎也在減弱。匯豐(HSBC)/Markit周一發(fā)表的報(bào)告顯示，8月份中國服務(wù)業(yè)采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)(PMI)降至50.6這一調(diào)查歷史最低值。這個(gè)水平說明業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)充其量僅出現(xiàn)微弱擴(kuò)張。在中國物流與采購聯(lián)合會(huì)編制的13個(gè)官方PMI數(shù)據(jù)系列中，有6個(gè)已降至50以下，說明業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)出現(xiàn)收縮。即便當(dāng)今世界對(duì)歐洲的危機(jī)念念不忘，這也應(yīng)當(dāng)引發(fā)憂慮。

　　China’s policymakers are in a bind. Note that August was the first month this year that was free of increases in either the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates. As the US and Europe once more struggle for economic traction, some factions within the politburo would like to join them in an extended pause in monetary tightening, or even to ease a little. But headline consumer price inflation, politically sensitive in China, will not allow it. July’s CPI was almost unchanged at a three-year high of 6.5 per cent. Local media reports suggest not much change in August’s reading, to be reported this Friday.

　　中國的政策制定者們進(jìn)退兩難。值得注意的是，8月是今年首個(gè)中國官方既沒有上調(diào)銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率又沒有上調(diào)利率的月份。隨著美歐再一次竭力保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，中共中央政治局內(nèi)部某些派別希望像西方一樣，在較長時(shí)間內(nèi)暫停收緊貨幣政策，或者甚至稍微放松一下政策。但是，在中國具有政治敏感性的整體消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)不容許這么做。7月的CPI幾乎沒有變化，仍保持在6.5%的三年高位。中國媒體報(bào)道暗示，定于本周五報(bào)告的8月CPI將不會(huì)有太大變化。

　　The good news is that base effects, if nothing else, will help to tame CPI in the coming months. A rising currency, too, works to take the edge off import prices: August’s 10 per cent annualised rate of gain against the dollar was the biggest since last September. But for now, the tensions are obvious. Writing last week in the policy periodical of the Chinese Communist party, Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed that price stability is the “primary task”, while claiming that signs of slower growth are “at a reasonable level”. Maybe they are. But balancing between jobs and prices has rarely seemed so complex.

　　好消息是，就算沒有其它手段管用的話，基數(shù)效應(yīng)也將在未來幾個(gè)月幫助遏制CPI。人民幣匯率上升也有利于緩解進(jìn)口價(jià)格上漲的影響：8月份，人民幣兌美元匯率出現(xiàn)10%的年化上漲，這是自去年9月以來的最大漲幅。但就目前而言，緊張形勢(shì)仍一目了然。中國總理溫家寶上周在中共政策刊物《求是》撰文重申，穩(wěn)定物價(jià)總水平仍然是宏觀調(diào)控的“首要任務(wù)”。溫家寶同時(shí)稱，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩的各種跡象“處在合理水平”。這話也許沒錯(cuò)。但是，在創(chuàng)造就業(yè)與穩(wěn)定價(jià)格之間尋找平衡的任務(wù)，看上去很少像現(xiàn)在這樣復(fù)雜。