When an industry is this reliant on government subsidies, the last thing it needs is a dose of market forces. The industry is renewable energy. The market force is China.

　　當一個行業(yè)如此依賴政府補貼時，它最不需要的就是一劑市場力量的強心針。這個行業(yè)就是可再生能源業(yè)，市場力量就是中國。

　　The paradox of wind and solar power is that they are too expensive to compete properly with conventional fuels like natural gas, yet lower equipment prices from competition can prove fatal to manufacturers. Last week, U.S. solar panel maker Evergreen Solar went bankrupt. Despite shifting its factory to China, from a state-supported facility in Massachusetts, it couldn't compete.

　　Agence France-Presse/Getty ImageseSolar Sierra SunTower電廠全景，該電廠位于加利福尼亞州蘭卡斯特的莫哈韋沙漠中。風能和太陽能的悖論是，它們價格過高，無法和天然氣等傳統(tǒng)燃料開展正常競爭，而競爭所導致的設(shè)備降價對這些設(shè)備的生產(chǎn)商來說可能是致命的。上周，美國太陽能電池板制造商Evergreen Solar申請破產(chǎn)。盡管該公司把工廠從政府提供補貼的美國馬薩諸塞州遷到了中國，但它仍在競爭中落敗。

　　China figures large in renewable energy's future. It already is the world's largest market for new wind turbines.

　　中國對于可再生能源的未來起著重要作用。這個國家已經(jīng)是世界上最大的新裝風力發(fā)電機市場。

　　In solar, China's share of global demand is set to rise to 13% in 2015 from 7% this year, says Barclays Capital.

　　而在太陽能領(lǐng)域，據(jù)巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）說，中國在全球需求方面所占的份額將從今年的7%提高到2015年的13%。

　　Moreover, if renewable technologies are to wean themselves off state subsidies, the sort of deflation imposed by the expansion of Chinese competitors is necessary.

　　此外，如果可再生能源技術(shù)想不依靠政府補貼而獨立生存，那么中國相關(guān)企業(yè)擴大產(chǎn)能導致的產(chǎn)品降價將是必需的。

　　Chinese demand for renewables is underpinned by economic development and government backing─handy when cash-strapped European governments are cutting subsidies. But Beijing isn't interested in helping Western suppliers. In wind power, for instance, foreign manufacturers' share of the Chinese market has collapsed from 80% in 2004 to less than 15% today.

　　中國對可再生能源的需求得到了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和政府支持措施的支撐，當缺乏資金的歐洲國家政府削減對可再生能源的補貼之際，中國在這方面的補貼資金卻是唾手可得。但北京對幫助西方供應(yīng)商并不感興趣。以風力發(fā)電領(lǐng)域為例，外國的設(shè)備制造商在中國市場的占有率已經(jīng)從2004年的80%驟降至目前的不足15%。

　　Having conquered their home market, Chinese wind manufacturers aren't content to stay at home. Four Chinese companies made BTM Consult's top 10 list of wind turbine suppliers last year, up from two in 2008. Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, No. 2 in China by shipments, has recently won orders in the U.S. and aims to derive 30% of gross profit overseas by 2015.

　　在占領(lǐng)了國內(nèi)市場之后，中國的風電設(shè)備制造商并不滿足于只留在國內(nèi)。BTM咨詢公司（BTM Consult）評出的去年全球10大風力發(fā)電機供應(yīng)商中，有四家是中國企業(yè)，高于2008年時的兩家。中國風電設(shè)備出貨量第二高的新疆金風科技股份有限公司（Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology）最近從美國贏得了訂單，它希望2015年之前能實現(xiàn)公司30%的毛利潤來自海外。

　　And Chinese suppliers make formidable competitors. Sanford C. Bernstein reckons Chinese turbines shipped to the U.S. and Europe are, on average, 20% cheaper than those built locally, and the gap could hit 30% next year.

　　中國供應(yīng)商是強有力的競爭者。據(jù)美國投行Sanford C. Bernstein計算，中國出口到美國和歐洲的風電設(shè)備，其價格平均比美歐當?shù)氐漠a(chǎn)品便宜20%，明年將會便宜30%。

　　If anything, Western solar equipment firms face an even bigger challenge, especially as they compete in a much more fragmented industry. This helped cut average solar module prices by more than half between 2006 and 2010.

　　如果說中國的太陽能設(shè)備生產(chǎn)企業(yè)和西方同行有什么分別的話，那就是后者面臨著甚至更大的挑戰(zhàn)，太陽能設(shè)備制造業(yè)群雄爭霸的局面使這種挑戰(zhàn)變得更為嚴峻。激烈的業(yè)內(nèi)競爭已經(jīng)使太陽能電池組件的價格在2006至2010年期間下降了50%以上。

　　Chinese expansion will accelerate this trend. Credit Suisse reckons China's GCL-Poly Energy, for example, could have production capacity equal to two-thirds of the entire global solar panel market in 2012. What's more, by then it could be churning out panels at a lower all-in cost than current cost leader First Solar, an American firm.

　　中國的產(chǎn)能擴張將加速這一趨勢。舉例來說，據(jù)瑞信（Credit Suisse）預計，中國保利協(xié)鑫能源控股有限公司（GCL-Poly Energy）的太陽能電池板生產(chǎn)能力有可能達到全球市場2012年總需求的三分之二。更何況，屆時該公司所產(chǎn)太陽能電池板包括一切費用的成本可能比目前業(yè)內(nèi)成本最低的美國公司First Solar還要低。

　　Solar power needs lower costs: Bernstein estimates it costs $142 per megawatt hour─multiples of current U.S. wholesale electricity costs─and that's with tax benefits included. But achieving lower costs means lower equipment prices. So while new solar installations in 2012 are forecast to be 25% above 2010's level by volume, the revenue pool will be 23% smaller, reckons Commerzbank.

　　太陽能發(fā)電需要降低成本：Bernstein估計，用太陽能發(fā)電每千度的成本是142美元，為美國目前批發(fā)電價的好幾倍，而且這還是把稅收優(yōu)惠算進去后的結(jié)果。但成本的降低就意味著設(shè)備價格的下降。因此，據(jù)德國商業(yè)銀行（Commerzbank）預計，雖然2012年新安裝的太陽能發(fā)電裝置在數(shù)量上預計會比2010年多25%，但那一年的太陽能發(fā)電設(shè)備銷售收入?yún)s會比2010年低23%。

　　Better technology offers one way to resist the competitive pressure. William Blair & Co. analyst Nick Heymann highlights Siemens. The German industrial group is taking substantial market share in the growing offshore wind market, where there is less competition. Siemens can also bundle transmission networks with its turbines, a critical piece of equipment Chinese competitors don't supply typically.

　　提升技術(shù)水平是抵抗這種價格競爭壓力的途徑之一。券商William Blair & Co.的分析師海曼（Nick Heymann）看好西門子公司（Siemens）。這家德國的工業(yè)集團正在不斷增長的海外風電市場上攫取大量份額，那些市場的競爭程度要低一些。西門子還能將輸電網(wǎng)與其風力發(fā)電機捆綁在一起銷售，中國的風電設(shè)備生產(chǎn)商通常不提供輸電網(wǎng)這一重要設(shè)備。

　　Western competitors will have to work hard to differentiate themselves in this way. Chinese rivals are following a well-worn path of conquering their home market and then expanding aggressively abroad, helped by generous domestic credit. An industry reliant on subsidies and needing to drive down costs anyway can hardly complain much. But don't be surprised if this most politicized of technologies becomes a flashpoint for protectionism.

　　西方企業(yè)要想靠提升技術(shù)水平這條路在競爭中脫潁而出，他們必須付出艱苦努力。中國的可再生能源設(shè)備企業(yè)正在走其他行業(yè)中國企業(yè)的老路：先是占領(lǐng)國內(nèi)市場，然后再在慷慨的國內(nèi)貸款支持下向海外市場大舉擴張。對于目前仍需依賴政府補貼并且急需把成本降下來的可再生能源設(shè)備業(yè)來說，對中國這種做法幾乎沒資格抱怨太多。不過，如果這些最具政治色彩的可再生能源技術(shù)變?yōu)橐l(fā)保護主義的導火索，也別感到意外。