When an industry is this reliant on government subsidies, the last thing it needs is a dose of market forces. The industry is renewable energy. The market force is China.

　　當(dāng)一個(gè)行業(yè)如此依賴政府補(bǔ)貼時(shí)，它最不需要的就是一劑市場(chǎng)力量的強(qiáng)心針。這個(gè)行業(yè)就是可再生能源業(yè)，市場(chǎng)力量就是中國(guó)。

　　The paradox of wind and solar power is that they are too expensive to compete properly with conventional fuels like natural gas, yet lower equipment prices from competition can prove fatal to manufacturers. Last week, U.S. solar panel maker Evergreen Solar went bankrupt. Despite shifting its factory to China, from a state-supported facility in Massachusetts, it couldn't compete.

　　Agence France-Presse/Getty ImageseSolar Sierra SunTower電廠全景，該電廠位于加利福尼亞州蘭卡斯特的莫哈韋沙漠中。風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能的悖論是，它們價(jià)格過高，無(wú)法和天然氣等傳統(tǒng)燃料開展正常競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而競(jìng)爭(zhēng)所導(dǎo)致的設(shè)備降價(jià)對(duì)這些設(shè)備的生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)可能是致命的。上周，美國(guó)太陽(yáng)能電池板制造商Evergreen Solar申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)。盡管該公司把工廠從政府提供補(bǔ)貼的美國(guó)馬薩諸塞州遷到了中國(guó)，但它仍在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中落敗。

　　China figures large in renewable energy's future. It already is the world's largest market for new wind turbines.

　　中國(guó)對(duì)于可再生能源的未來(lái)起著重要作用。這個(gè)國(guó)家已經(jīng)是世界上最大的新裝風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)市場(chǎng)。

　　In solar, China's share of global demand is set to rise to 13% in 2015 from 7% this year, says Barclays Capital.

　　而在太陽(yáng)能領(lǐng)域，據(jù)巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）說(shuō)，中國(guó)在全球需求方面所占的份額將從今年的7%提高到2015年的13%。

　　Moreover, if renewable technologies are to wean themselves off state subsidies, the sort of deflation imposed by the expansion of Chinese competitors is necessary.

　　此外，如果可再生能源技術(shù)想不依靠政府補(bǔ)貼而獨(dú)立生存，那么中國(guó)相關(guān)企業(yè)擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能導(dǎo)致的產(chǎn)品降價(jià)將是必需的。

　　Chinese demand for renewables is underpinned by economic development and government backing─handy when cash-strapped European governments are cutting subsidies. But Beijing isn't interested in helping Western suppliers. In wind power, for instance, foreign manufacturers' share of the Chinese market has collapsed from 80% in 2004 to less than 15% today.

　　中國(guó)對(duì)可再生能源的需求得到了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和政府支持措施的支撐，當(dāng)缺乏資金的歐洲國(guó)家政府削減對(duì)可再生能源的補(bǔ)貼之際，中國(guó)在這方面的補(bǔ)貼資金卻是唾手可得。但北京對(duì)幫助西方供應(yīng)商并不感興趣。以風(fēng)力發(fā)電領(lǐng)域?yàn)槔?，外?guó)的設(shè)備制造商在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的占有率已經(jīng)從2004年的80%驟降至目前的不足15%。

　　Having conquered their home market, Chinese wind manufacturers aren't content to stay at home. Four Chinese companies made BTM Consult's top 10 list of wind turbine suppliers last year, up from two in 2008. Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, No. 2 in China by shipments, has recently won orders in the U.S. and aims to derive 30% of gross profit overseas by 2015.

　　在占領(lǐng)了國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)之后，中國(guó)的風(fēng)電設(shè)備制造商并不滿足于只留在國(guó)內(nèi)。BTM咨詢公司（BTM Consult）評(píng)出的去年全球10大風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)供應(yīng)商中，有四家是中國(guó)企業(yè)，高于2008年時(shí)的兩家。中國(guó)風(fēng)電設(shè)備出貨量第二高的新疆金風(fēng)科技股份有限公司（Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology）最近從美國(guó)贏得了訂單，它希望2015年之前能實(shí)現(xiàn)公司30%的毛利潤(rùn)來(lái)自海外。

　　And Chinese suppliers make formidable competitors. Sanford C. Bernstein reckons Chinese turbines shipped to the U.S. and Europe are, on average, 20% cheaper than those built locally, and the gap could hit 30% next year.

　　中國(guó)供應(yīng)商是強(qiáng)有力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者。據(jù)美國(guó)投行Sanford C. Bernstein計(jì)算，中國(guó)出口到美國(guó)和歐洲的風(fēng)電設(shè)備，其價(jià)格平均比美歐當(dāng)?shù)氐漠a(chǎn)品便宜20%，明年將會(huì)便宜30%。

　　If anything, Western solar equipment firms face an even bigger challenge, especially as they compete in a much more fragmented industry. This helped cut average solar module prices by more than half between 2006 and 2010.

　　如果說(shuō)中國(guó)的太陽(yáng)能設(shè)備生產(chǎn)企業(yè)和西方同行有什么分別的話，那就是后者面臨著甚至更大的挑戰(zhàn)，太陽(yáng)能設(shè)備制造業(yè)群雄爭(zhēng)霸的局面使這種挑戰(zhàn)變得更為嚴(yán)峻。激烈的業(yè)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)使太陽(yáng)能電池組件的價(jià)格在2006至2010年期間下降了50%以上。

　　Chinese expansion will accelerate this trend. Credit Suisse reckons China's GCL-Poly Energy, for example, could have production capacity equal to two-thirds of the entire global solar panel market in 2012. What's more, by then it could be churning out panels at a lower all-in cost than current cost leader First Solar, an American firm.

　　中國(guó)的產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張將加速這一趨勢(shì)。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，據(jù)瑞信（Credit Suisse）預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)保利協(xié)鑫能源控股有限公司（GCL-Poly Energy）的太陽(yáng)能電池板生產(chǎn)能力有可能達(dá)到全球市場(chǎng)2012年總需求的三分之二。更何況，屆時(shí)該公司所產(chǎn)太陽(yáng)能電池板包括一切費(fèi)用的成本可能比目前業(yè)內(nèi)成本最低的美國(guó)公司First Solar還要低。

　　Solar power needs lower costs: Bernstein estimates it costs $142 per megawatt hour─multiples of current U.S. wholesale electricity costs─and that's with tax benefits included. But achieving lower costs means lower equipment prices. So while new solar installations in 2012 are forecast to be 25% above 2010's level by volume, the revenue pool will be 23% smaller, reckons Commerzbank.

　　太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電需要降低成本：Bernstein估計(jì)，用太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電每千度的成本是142美元，為美國(guó)目前批發(fā)電價(jià)的好幾倍，而且這還是把稅收優(yōu)惠算進(jìn)去后的結(jié)果。但成本的降低就意味著設(shè)備價(jià)格的下降。因此，據(jù)德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行（Commerzbank）預(yù)計(jì)，雖然2012年新安裝的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電裝置在數(shù)量上預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)比2010年多25%，但那一年的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電設(shè)備銷售收入?yún)s會(huì)比2010年低23%。

　　Better technology offers one way to resist the competitive pressure. William Blair & Co. analyst Nick Heymann highlights Siemens. The German industrial group is taking substantial market share in the growing offshore wind market, where there is less competition. Siemens can also bundle transmission networks with its turbines, a critical piece of equipment Chinese competitors don't supply typically.

　　提升技術(shù)水平是抵抗這種價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力的途徑之一。券商William Blair & Co.的分析師海曼（Nick Heymann）看好西門子公司（Siemens）。這家德國(guó)的工業(yè)集團(tuán)正在不斷增長(zhǎng)的海外風(fēng)電市場(chǎng)上攫取大量份額，那些市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)程度要低一些。西門子還能將輸電網(wǎng)與其風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)捆綁在一起銷售，中國(guó)的風(fēng)電設(shè)備生產(chǎn)商通常不提供輸電網(wǎng)這一重要設(shè)備。

　　Western competitors will have to work hard to differentiate themselves in this way. Chinese rivals are following a well-worn path of conquering their home market and then expanding aggressively abroad, helped by generous domestic credit. An industry reliant on subsidies and needing to drive down costs anyway can hardly complain much. But don't be surprised if this most politicized of technologies becomes a flashpoint for protectionism.

　　西方企業(yè)要想靠提升技術(shù)水平這條路在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中脫潁而出，他們必須付出艱苦努力。中國(guó)的可再生能源設(shè)備企業(yè)正在走其他行業(yè)中國(guó)企業(yè)的老路：先是占領(lǐng)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，然后再在慷慨的國(guó)內(nèi)貸款支持下向海外市場(chǎng)大舉擴(kuò)張。對(duì)于目前仍需依賴政府補(bǔ)貼并且急需把成本降下來(lái)的可再生能源設(shè)備業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，對(duì)中國(guó)這種做法幾乎沒資格抱怨太多。不過，如果這些最具政治色彩的可再生能源技術(shù)變?yōu)橐l(fā)保護(hù)主義的導(dǎo)火索，也別感到意外。