China expects that the US will be able to resolve its debt-ceiling impasse without triggering a default, advisers to the central bank and government say.

　　中國政府及央行的顧問們表示，中國預(yù)期美國將能夠解決債務(wù)上限僵局，不致引發(fā)違約。

　　As the biggest foreign creditor to the US, China stands to lose the most from any delayed payment of interest on Treasury debt or from a downgrading of the US sovereign rating that hurts the dollar.

　　如果美國推遲支付國債利息，或美國主權(quán)信用評級遭到調(diào)降、導(dǎo)致美元走低，中國作為美國的最大外國債權(quán)人，將遭受最大的損失。

　　Despite the apparent deadlock in budget negotiations between Democrat and Republican lawmakers before an August 2 deadline, Chinese advisers expressed confidence that a crisis would be averted.

　　盡管美國民主黨和共和黨議員們在8月2日這一截止日期之前的預(yù)算談判顯然僵持不下，但中方的顧問們表示相信，危機將得到避免。

　　“If they don’t raise the debt ceiling, will the American economy be able to go on? The two parties are just playing political games,” Xia Bin, who holds an academic seat on the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, told the Financial Times. “The chance that they don’t raise the ceiling is very small.”

　　“如果他們不提高債務(wù)上限，美國經(jīng)濟還能維持下去嗎？兩黨只是在玩政治游戲，”中國央行貨幣政策委員會委員夏斌對英國《金融時報》表示。“他們不提高債務(wù)上限的幾率很小。”

　　Nevertheless, Mr Xia said that China still needed to speed up the diversification of its foreign currency investments away from US assets because the dollar was set to decline in coming decades.

　　但夏斌表示，中國仍需要加速本國外匯投資的多元化，從美元轉(zhuǎn)向其它貨幣，因為未來幾十年里美元勢將走低。

　　His view was echoed by Zhang Ming, a researcher in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank in Beijing.

　　夏斌的觀點得到中國社科院研究員張明的呼應(yīng)。社科院是中國的官方智庫，位于北京。

　　“Before August 2, there will be quite a satisfactory solution, at least in the short term. The risk is very low of a sudden US debt default,” he said. “So buying US debt is not a short-term risk. It’s more medium term, because of the potential for big dollar depreciation or for US inflation.”

　　“8月2日之前會有一個相當(dāng)令人滿意的解決方案，至少是短期的解決方案。美國突然發(fā)生債務(wù)違約的風(fēng)險很小，”他表示。“因此，購買美國債務(wù)不是一個短期風(fēng)險。風(fēng)險在更大程度上是中期的，因為美元有可能大幅貶值，美國的通脹也可能上揚。”

　　China officially held $1,152bn in US Treasuries at the end of April, about one-quarter of all US government debt in foreign hands, according to US data.

　　根據(jù)美國的數(shù)據(jù)，中國官方在4月底持有1.152萬億美元美國國債，占海外投資者所持美國政府債務(wù)總量的大約四分之一。

　　Standard Chartered Bank said last month that there was evidence that China had stepped up the pace of its reserve diversification this year by investing about three-quarters of its new foreign exchange holdings in non-US dollar assets.

　　渣打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)上月表示，有證據(jù)表明，今年中國已經(jīng)加快了外匯儲備多元化的進程，將大約四分之三的新增外匯儲備投入非美元資產(chǎn)。

　　But no one is talking about China cutting its stockpile of US Treasuries, only adding to it at a slower rate.

　　但是，沒有人在說中國要減持其所持的巨額美國國債，中國只是在以較慢的速度增持這種資產(chǎn)。

　　With Chinese foreign exchange reserves increasing by $350bn in the first half alone, Beijing had little choice but to put its misgivings to one side and buy more US Treasuries, the largest and most liquid market for foreign exchange investments, Mr Zhang said. The key for China was to slow its accumulation of currency reserves by, for example, letting the renminbi appreciate more quickly.

　　張明表示，鑒于中國外匯儲備僅在今年上半年就增加3500億美元，北京方面沒有什么選擇，只能把自己的疑慮放在一邊，購買更多的美國國債——對外匯儲備投資而言，美國國債市場是規(guī)模最大、流動性最好的市場。對中國來說，關(guān)鍵是想辦法放慢外匯儲備累積的速度，比如說讓人民幣更快地升值。

　　Chinese officials have so far remained circumspect about the debt negotiations in the US even as Standard & Poor’s followed Moody’s last week in putting the country’s triple-A credit rating on review for possible downgrade.

　　中國官員迄今對美國國內(nèi)的債務(wù)談判仍態(tài)度謹(jǐn)慎，盡管標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor’s)追隨穆迪(Moody’s)上周的舉動，將美國的AAA信用評級列入負(fù)面觀察名單。

　　Asked last week about the Moody’s warning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman gave a one-sentence response, saying he hoped that the US government would adopt responsible policies and protect the interests of investors.

　　上周，在被問及穆迪有關(guān)美國評級的警告時，中國外交部發(fā)言人給出了一句話的簡短答復(fù)，表示他希望美國政府采取負(fù)責(zé)任的政策，保護投資者利益。