The last time US unemployment hit double figures was in the early 1980s, when one of the hit films was Red Dawn, a tale of a frustrated Soviet invasion of Colorado that played on the economic insecurity of the time.

　　上次美國(guó)失業(yè)率達(dá)到兩位數(shù)水平是在上世紀(jì)80年代初，當(dāng)時(shí)有部熱映影片《赤色黎明》(Red Dawn)，講述的是蘇聯(lián)入侵科羅拉多遭遇失敗的故事，反映了人們的經(jīng)濟(jì)不安全感。

　　With the number of people out of work hovering around the same level again, Red Dawn is being dusted off for a remake. Except this time it is the Chinese, not the Soviets, who are the baddies. The film begins with the Chinese army taking over Detroit.

　　隨著美國(guó)失業(yè)率再度徘徊在兩位數(shù)水平，人們把《赤色黎明》翻了出來(lái)重拍。只是這次反派人物從蘇聯(lián)人換成了中國(guó)人。在影片開頭，中國(guó)軍隊(duì)占領(lǐng)了底特律。

　　In such a climate it should come as no surprise that China’s currency is becoming a hot-button political issue again.

　　在這樣的環(huán)境下，中國(guó)匯率再度成為熱門政治議題就不足為奇了。

　　Barack Obama, president, recently intensified his calls for China to revalue its currency, arguing that more exports to Asia would mean “hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of jobs here in the US”.

　　美國(guó)總統(tǒng)巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)最近以更強(qiáng)硬姿態(tài)呼吁中國(guó)讓人民幣升值，他提出，對(duì)亞洲的出口增加，將意味著“美國(guó)幾十萬(wàn)，甚至幾百萬(wàn)的就業(yè)崗位”。

　　An estimate by the Peterson Institute of International Economics that the renminbi is undervalued by 41 per cent against the dollar was widely picked up in the US, adding to the popular view that China has a large and unfair advantage coming out of the crisis.

　　彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute of International Economics)估計(jì)，人民幣兌美元匯率被低估了41%。這個(gè)數(shù)字在美國(guó)得到廣泛認(rèn)可，增強(qiáng)了以下流行觀點(diǎn)：中國(guó)在擺脫危機(jī)時(shí)擁有巨大的不公平優(yōu)勢(shì)。

　　Financial markets are also buzzing with speculation that China is about to make a currency move. Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist and “Brics” guru, caused a stir last week when he said “something is brewing in Beijing”.

　　金融市場(chǎng)也在風(fēng)傳，中國(guó)即將采取匯率行動(dòng)。高盛(Goldman Sachs)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、“金磚四國(guó)”權(quán)威吉姆?奧尼爾(Jim O’Neill)上周表示，“北京正在醞釀著什么”。此言引起了轟動(dòng)。

　　This is not the place to rehearse the arguments about appreciation, other than to say that they are becoming stronger as Chinese inflation rises. And the Peterson Institute was not actually recommending a 41 per cent appreciation, but only trying to put a number on the level of undervaluation. Most economists expect only a very modest increase in the value of the renminbi.

　　這里不是要再排演一場(chǎng)升值辯論，而只是說(shuō)，隨著中國(guó)通脹上升，升值的理由正變得越來(lái)越充足。彼得森研究所也不是真的建議升值41%，而只是試圖用數(shù)字來(lái)表示低估的程度。多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，人民幣只會(huì)非常小幅度地升值。

　　Yet it is worth pointing out that a revaluation of that level would actually exacerbate the very fears behind a film such as the new Red Dawn. Aimed at levelling the playing field, it could instead change the way many people think about China.

　　 但是值得指出的是，如果人民幣升值41%，實(shí)際上會(huì)加重潛藏在新《赤色黎明》等影片背后的恐慌。讓人民幣升值本意是為了營(yíng)造公平的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境，但結(jié)果反而可能改變很多人看待中國(guó)的目光。

　　The Chinese economy is currently the third largest in the world measured in dollar terms, just behind Japan. A 41 per cent appreciation in the renminbi would catapult China way beyond Japan and leave it half the size of the US. When Mr O’Neill forecast that China would overtake the US by 2027, some scoffed. All of a sudden those guestimates would start to look a lot more on the money.

　　按美元計(jì)算，中國(guó)目前是全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，僅次于日本。如果人民幣升值41%，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將驟增至美國(guó)的一半，遙遙領(lǐng)先于日本。奧尼爾當(dāng)初預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)到2027年將超過(guò)美國(guó)時(shí)，一些人嗤之以鼻。突然之間，這些推測(cè)將開始更加注重人民幣匯率的因素。

　　The US dwarfs China in spending on research and on its military and will do so for years to come. But after a big revaluation, China’s budgets in these areas would be equivalent to about a quarter of those in the US – enough to seem like a real competitive threat.

　　美國(guó)的研發(fā)和軍事開支讓中國(guó)相形見絀，在今后許多年內(nèi)，這種狀況不會(huì)改變。但如果人民幣大幅升值，中國(guó)在這些方面的預(yù)算將相當(dāng)于美國(guó)的四分之一左右——看上去足以構(gòu)成真正的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅。

　　One of the things that would not change is the value of China’s mammoth foreign exchange reserves, which have been the subject of so much misplaced angst about Beijing becoming the US’s banker. But what about China’s commercial banks? ICBC was already the biggest bank in the world last year by market capitalisation: after a 40 per cent currency appreciation its mainland shares would give it a market value double that of JPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank. PetroChina would be one and a half times the size of ExxonMobil. No prizes for guessing what US investment bankers would be telling Chinese companies.

　　有一件事不會(huì)改變，那就是中國(guó)巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備的價(jià)值。這些儲(chǔ)備引發(fā)了對(duì)于中國(guó)將成為美國(guó)財(cái)產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)蓄機(jī)構(gòu)的不必要擔(dān)憂。但中國(guó)的商業(yè)銀行呢？中國(guó)工商銀行(ICBC)去年就已是全球市值最大的銀行。如果人民幣升值41%，該行在中國(guó)內(nèi)地的股份將使其市值達(dá)到美國(guó)最大銀行摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的兩倍。中石油(PetroChina)的市值將是埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)的1.5倍。不用猜也知道美國(guó)投資銀行家會(huì)跟中國(guó)企業(yè)說(shuō)些什么。

　　By this stage, economists are probably grumbling that exchange rates only reflect relative prices and that a big appreciation would not give the Chinese government a single renminbi more to spend on scientists or soldiers.

　　在現(xiàn)階段，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們大概會(huì)說(shuō)，匯率只反映相對(duì)價(jià)格，即使人民幣大幅升值，中國(guó)政府也不會(huì)在科學(xué)家或士兵身上多花一塊錢。

　　But there is a bigger point. When some of the more extravagant claims about “China’s century” are made, plenty of people – myself included – often point to the many obstacles ahead and stress how poor a country China still is. Yet maybe the fact that the currency has been kept so artificially low has obscured just how far China has already come.

　　但還有更重要的一點(diǎn)。當(dāng)一些有關(guān)“中國(guó)世紀(jì)”的更宏大猜測(cè)出爐時(shí)，包括我在內(nèi)的許多人常常會(huì)提到未來(lái)面臨的諸多障礙，以及中國(guó)仍是一個(gè)多么貧窮的國(guó)家。然而，人民幣被人為大幅低估的事實(shí)，或許掩蓋了中國(guó)真正的崛起程度。

　　The revamped Red Dawn says something about the anxieties that China is already provoking. With a stronger currency China would loom even larger in the US consciousness. It would reinforce the perception that China is not just a rival for the distant future but is swiftly becoming an economic and military match for the US.

　　翻拍的《赤色黎明》體現(xiàn)了中國(guó)已經(jīng)造成的焦慮。隨著人民幣走強(qiáng)，中國(guó)在美國(guó)的意識(shí)中將進(jìn)一步放大。它也將加強(qiáng)人們的以下觀點(diǎn)：對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)不僅是遙遠(yuǎn)未來(lái)的對(duì)手，而且中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事實(shí)力正在迅速趕上美國(guó)。

　　The phrase “be careful what you ask for” works as well in Chinese as in English.

　　英文警句“當(dāng)心你想要的成了真”(Be careful what you ask for)，放在中文里也同樣適用。