The scale of human tragedy caused by an earthquake and tsunami that has left so many thousands dead or missing can't be quantified. Economists, however, are doing their best to gauge just how much the destruction will cost both Japan and the world in economic growth.

　　地震和海嘯導致數(shù)千人死亡或失蹤，其對人類造成的破壞程度是無法被量化的。然而，經(jīng)濟學家正在竭盡全力衡量這次災難在多大程度上會影響日本及世界的經(jīng)濟增長。

　　Harder to estimate is how irrational fears could upend those calculations.

　　更難估計的是，非理性恐懼會如何改寫這些預測和推算。

　　The financial damages will be enormous: Goldman Sachs puts the losses in buildings and production facilities at 16 trillion yen, or $193 billion, some 3.3% of the country's gross domestic product. In coming months, power shortages and supply-chain problems will slash the country's production of cars, electronics, machinery and other goods. The hit to tourism could last even longer.

　　Bloomberg News高盛（Goldman Sachs）認為建筑和生產(chǎn)設施的損失達16萬億日圓（1930億美元），約占日本國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的3.3%。經(jīng)濟上的損失將是巨大的：高盛（Goldman Sachs）認為建筑和生產(chǎn)設施的損失達16萬億日圓（1930億美元），約占日本國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的3.3%。未來幾個月，供電短缺和供應鏈問題將減少汽車、電子產(chǎn)品、機械等商品的生產(chǎn)。旅游業(yè)遭受的打擊可能會歷時更長。

　　Yet the overall cost to Japan's growth, measured in GDP, should be minimal. As with past disasters such as the Kobe earthquake in 1995, a massive reconstruction effort will later push up spending on buildings, factories and even furniture and home appliances lost in the rubble, all of which could offset a slowdown in output.

　　然而，如果以GDP為衡量指標，日本的經(jīng)濟增長所付出的整體代價應該會極小。如同1995年阪神大地震等過去的災難一樣，大規(guī)模災后重建會推動被毀的建筑、工廠、甚至家具家電的開支，這些都會抵消經(jīng)濟總量的減少。

　　"We expect by the fourth quarter, Japan will be on a clear economic recovery track," says Tomo Kinoshita, deputy head of Asian economics at Nomura. The Japanese bank has revised down its 2011 GDP forecast for the country by a mere 0.4 percentage points to 0.9%.

　　野村（Nomura）亞洲經(jīng)濟部副主管木下智夫（Tomo Kinoshita）說，我們預計到第四季度，日本會走上明顯的經(jīng)濟復蘇軌道。這家日本銀行只將其對日本2011年的GDP預測數(shù)據(jù)降低了0.4個百分點，至0.9%。

　　For the rest of the world, a loss like that amounts to a rounding error. Bank of America Merrill Lynch figures even no growth at all in Japan this year would knock only a tenth of a percentage point off global GDP growth, to 4.2%.

　　對世界其他各國來說，這種降幅相當于四舍五入的誤差。認為日本今年甚至不會取得增長的美國銀行-美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）僅將全球GDP增長率下調(diào)了10個基點，至4.2%。

　　A shift in manufacturing and tourism away from Japan could benefit its neighbors, too. Taiwan hotel shares rose Friday in expectation that evacuees and travelers from nearby Japan would provide a new source of business. A shortage of Hondas for sale could prompt more people to buy Hyundais.

　　制造業(yè)和旅游業(yè)從日本轉(zhuǎn)移也可能惠及它的鄰國。由于預期日本的撤離人員和游客會提供新的商業(yè)來源，臺灣的酒店股周五上漲。本田（Honda）汽車供應短缺可能會使更多人買現(xiàn)代（Hyundai）汽車。

　　The problem is that what should happen isn't always what will happen. There are still too many unknowns. Lasting power shortages could cripple manufacturing and inflict worse damage on Japan's exports. Supply-chain disruptions may prove harder than expected to surmount, hurting not just the Japanese but importers of their machinery and high-tech goods in China, Taiwan and South Korea.

　　問題在于，應該發(fā)生的事并非總會如期而至。依然有太多的不確定性。供電短缺可能使制造業(yè)受損，對日本出口造成更嚴重的損失。供應鏈中斷可能會比想象中更難克服，不僅會傷及日本人，還會傷及從日本進口機械和高科技產(chǎn)品的中國、臺灣和韓國商人。

　　Of course, even worse is the risk that the efforts to repair damaged nuclear facilities fail to contain radioactive contamination, with enormous consequences to public health. The likelihood of that outcome appears to be diminishing as authorities make progress restoring power to cooling systems that prevent nuclear fuel from overheating.

　　當然，更糟糕的是，修復受損核電站的努力存在無法抑制輻射污染的風險，會對公眾健康造成嚴重后果。隨著當局對用于阻止核燃料過熱的冷卻系統(tǒng)的恢復供電工作取得進展，出現(xiàn)這種結(jié)果的可能性似乎在逐漸降低。

　　But that doesn't eliminate the danger of panic.

　　但這并未消除恐慌的危險。

　　Frightened shoppers across China, including Hong Kong, last week emptied their supermarkets of iodized salt in the sadly misplaced belief that it would offer protection against radiation sickness, or that irradiated seawater would contaminate future salt supplies. Signs that produce from around the nuclear-disaster zone contain low levels of radiation could spark broader food scares and result in unexpected shortages.

　　上周，因誤信碘鹽能夠防輻射病或受到輻射的海水會污染今后的食鹽供應，包括香港在內(nèi)的一些中國城市的消費者將超市的碘鹽搶購一空。核泄漏災區(qū)周圍的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品含有低水平輻射的跡象可能引發(fā)更大范圍的食品恐慌，并導致某些商品意外短缺。

　　It's not hard to imagine how panic might spread in the financial arena as well. In a report last week, Wells Fargo Securities warned of "psychological damage" that could lead to a selloff in the stock markets. "A full-blown financial contagion can not be ruled out," it added.

　　不難想象恐慌情緒會在金融領域如何蔓延。在上周的一份報告中，富國證券（Wells Fargo Securities）警告說，“心理傷害”可能會引發(fā)股市拋售潮。它還說，不能排除全面金融危機傳染的可能性。

　　When markets freeze up, so does economic activity, as consumers hoard their savings and companies rethink their investment plans. This is what creates recessions.

　　當市場凍結(jié)時，經(jīng)濟活動也就停止了，因為消費者會積累儲蓄，公司會重新考慮投資計劃。這樣就會造成衰退。

　　If we're not careful, fear, not logic, will create the reality that determines the outcome of events. Should that be the case, savvy investors might spot an opportunity to snap up cheap assets. For everyone else, the Japan's tsunami would end up leaving a wider swath of destruction than the spreadsheets are predicting.

　　如果我們不小心，恐懼將會左右現(xiàn)實，而不是邏輯。若果真如此，精明的投資者可能會注意到一個搶購廉價資產(chǎn)的機會。對其他人來說，日本的海嘯最終會帶來比經(jīng)濟學家所預測的更廣泛的破壞。