The great China growth slowdown is coming. If history is any guide, and if economists Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin have read the numbers right, the sustainable Chinese growth rate is set to decline by at least two percentage points some time around 2015.

　　中國經(jīng)濟增長大減速即將到來。如果歷史可以作為參考，如果經(jīng)濟學家Barry Eichengreen、Donghyun Park和Kwanho Shin對數(shù)據(jù)的解讀是正確的，那么中國經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)的增長率將在2015年前后下降至少兩個百分點。

　　In a paper, the trio identified 58 growth tipping points at which the long term growth rate of gross domestic product drops by at least that amount. For developing countries like China the slowdown generally came when GDP per capita was in the $13,000-$18000 range. The median was $15,058.

　　上述三名經(jīng)濟學家在一篇論文中指出了一個“58%”的增長臨界點（譯者注：即一國的人均收入達到領(lǐng)先國家的58%）。到達這個臨界點時，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的長期增速至少會下降兩個百分點。對于中國這樣的發(fā)展中國家，通常當人均GDP到達1.3萬美元至1.8萬美元的區(qū)間（中值水平為15058美元）時，增長就會放緩。

　　The precision is spurious, but the idea is sound. The easy and fastest phase of growth lasts as long as unskilled workers can be hooked into a rudimentary industrial economy. The next phase involves less dramatic changes in industrial productivity and a shift towards less productive service businesses. Japan’s economy grew by 9.5 per cent a year from 1963 to 1970; in the following decade the growth rate slowed to 5 per cent a year. In South Korea, the slowdown was from 8.7 to 5.8 per cent.

　　這些數(shù)字的精確度并不可信，但中心理念是可取的。只要非技術(shù)工人仍能被初級產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟所吸收，輕松而高速的經(jīng)濟增長階段就能持續(xù)下去。在接下來的一個階段，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的變化就不那么驚人了，經(jīng)濟會轉(zhuǎn)為倚重生產(chǎn)率較低的服務(wù)性行業(yè)。從1963年到1970年，日本經(jīng)濟以每年9.5%的速度增長；而在接下來的十年里，年均增速放緩至5%。韓國的經(jīng)濟增速則從8.7%降至5.8%。

　　Although Chinese incomes are still four years away from reaching the average tipping point, the government seems to be getting ready, lowering the planned growth rate to 7 per cent (down from the current planned 7.5 and the actual almost-10 per cent). There is also more talk of relatively low-growth goals such as improving the welfare net and reducing pollution.

　　盡管中國人的收入水平要達到平均臨界點還需要4年時間，但中國政府似乎正在為此做準備——將把經(jīng)濟增長率目標下調(diào)至7%（眼下的目標是7.5%，而實際增幅接近10%）。對改善社會福利、減少污染等導致相對低增長的目標，相關(guān)討論也多了起來。

　　If all goes well, the slowdown could be almost painless. A 5-6 per cent GDP growth rate is still fast enough to improve lifestyles quickly. But the change of gear could be very tough on the financial system if too many lenders and investors are counting on more. Even more worrying, fast growth can be followed by almost no growth, if conflicts (war, internal discord) or weak institutions (corruption) prove to be obstacles. Many countries in Latin America and the Middle East spent a generation or more stuck in a social-economic rut. Some have not yet emerged.

　　如果一切順利，經(jīng)濟減速的過程幾乎可以毫無痛苦。5%到6%的GDP增速依然足以迅速改善生活方式。但如果有太多的貸款機構(gòu)和投資者要仰仗更高的GDP增速，那么這一減速可能會給金融系統(tǒng)帶來很大的挑戰(zhàn)。更令人擔憂的是，如果沖突（戰(zhàn)爭、內(nèi)亂）或是制度乏力（例如腐?。?gòu)成障礙，快速增長過后可能會出現(xiàn)一個近乎零增長的階段。在拉丁美洲與中東的許多國家，有近30年的時間都陷在社會和經(jīng)濟的泥潭里，其中一些國家至今都沒有走出來。