China’s trade balance swung to a deficit of $7.3bn in February as exports slowed during the Lunar New Year holidays.

　　由于春節(jié)長假期間出口增長放緩，2月份中國出現(xiàn)73億美元貿(mào)易逆差。

　　Although China is often criticised by US politicians for running a large trade surplus, this is the second time in the past 12 months that Chinese data have revealed imports outstripping exports. As the world’s largest consumer of commodities, China’s imports have ballooned in value as prices for raw materials rise.

　　中國經(jīng)常因巨額貿(mào)易順差而受到美國政界人士的指責(zé)，但在過去一年里，這已經(jīng)是中國第二次進(jìn)口超過出口。作為全球最大的大宗商品消費(fèi)國，由于原材料價格上漲，中國進(jìn)口額出現(xiàn)了激增。

　　With many Chinese factories closing for up to a month during the holidays, the Customs Bureau cited Lunar New Year as a key factor in keeping exports low, a view echoed by analysts.

　　鑒于春節(jié)期間許多工廠都放了長假，有的甚至放了一個月，中國海關(guān)總署表示，春節(jié)是2月份出口額較低的關(guān)鍵因素。分析師也都認(rèn)同這一觀點(diǎn)。

　　“I think we’re going to see a returned surplus in the near future,” says Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight. “None of the structural factors have changed, so [this trade deficit] is more likely to be a blip than a new normal.”

　　“我認(rèn)為，中國貿(mào)易在近期內(nèi)將回歸順差。”IHS Global Insight分析師阿利斯泰爾•桑頓(Alistair Thornton)表示，“所有結(jié)構(gòu)性因素都沒有改變，因此貿(mào)易逆差更有可能是暫時現(xiàn)象，而不會成為新的常態(tài)。”

　　While Chinese export data are typically read as an informal barometer of the strength of the global economy, economists said the weak numbers – export growth fell to 2.4 per cent year-on-year in spite of some forecasts that it would be as high as 27.1 per cent – should not be taken at face value.

　　一般說來，人們會把中國出口數(shù)據(jù)當(dāng)作全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的非正式晴雨表進(jìn)行解讀，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，不能從表面金額來看待最新的疲軟數(shù)據(jù)。中國2月份出口同比增速降至2.4%，遠(yuǎn)低于一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測的27.1%。

　　“During the several weeks following the Lunar New Year holiday, distortions affect exports much more than imports because exporters have a much greater tendency to take extended holidays,” said Yu Song, China economist at Goldman Sachs.

　　“在春節(jié)假期之后的幾周內(nèi)，出口受到的影響遠(yuǎn)大于進(jìn)口，因?yàn)槌隹谄髽I(yè)更傾向于延長實(shí)際假期。”高盛(Goldman Sachs)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家宋宇表示。

　　The Shanghai Composite index closed down 1.5 per cent on Thursday, as bourses across Asia weakened on concerns about unrest in Libya.

　　上證指數(shù)周四收盤下跌1.5%，其他亞洲股市也普遍走低，主要是利比亞動亂引起投資者不安。

　　High prices of commodities such as iron ore and oil – which together accounted for more than $21bn of China’s imports last month – also play a big role in tipping the trade balance toward imports. In terms of volume, China’s imports of these commodities were relatively weak in February, but in value terms the imports still soared.

　　鐵礦石和石油等大宗商品價格高企，是導(dǎo)致中國國際貿(mào)易收支轉(zhuǎn)為逆差的另一大因素。以數(shù)量計(jì)算，2月份中國大宗商品的進(jìn)口量并不高，但換作進(jìn)口額就出現(xiàn)了激增。其中，鐵礦石和石油兩項(xiàng)的進(jìn)口額超過210億美元。

　　Some economists suggested that the February data might be too distorted to be worth considering alone. “The big volatilities are purely a consequence of the holiday,” wrote Ting Lu, China economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Our simple and humble suggestion is to read the two months’ data together. Export and import growth in Jan-Feb came in at 21.3% and 36.0% year-on-year, higher than 17.9% and 25.6% in December.”

　　一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，2月份數(shù)據(jù)可能扭曲得太厲害，不宜孤立解讀。“這么大的波動純粹是假期的結(jié)果。”美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺寫道，“我們建議不妨把兩個月的數(shù)據(jù)放在一起解讀。1-2月出口和進(jìn)口的同比增速分別為21.3%和36.0%，分別高于12月份的17.9%和25.6%。”