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市場(chǎng)的通貨再膨脹預(yù)期減弱(Reflation in Retreat)
道瓊斯工業(yè)股票平均價(jià)格指數(shù)今年高于去年底水平的時(shí)間僅有一天，它現(xiàn)在又在忙著掉頭下行。
或許是八大工業(yè)國(guó)（G8）財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)把本職工作干得太好了。雖然他們?cè)谌涨敖Y(jié)束的會(huì)議上沒(méi)能達(dá)成什么重要協(xié)議，但大多都對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇的樂(lè)觀情緒嗤之以鼻。亞洲和歐洲的股市聞風(fēng)下跌，美國(guó)股市也步了它們的后塵。
雖然這些財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)們幾乎未就匯率問(wèn)題表態(tài)，但美元匯率還是出現(xiàn)了上揚(yáng)。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力的當(dāng)今世界，美國(guó)似乎仍然是最安全的投資避風(fēng)港。美元上揚(yáng)打擊了大宗商品價(jià)格，長(zhǎng)期債券收益率也出現(xiàn)了下跌。換句話說(shuō)，通貨再膨脹交易（譯者注：押注全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將復(fù)蘇，從而推高利率水平和大宗商品價(jià)格）的策略正在失寵，這實(shí)現(xiàn)了八大工業(yè)國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)們的另一個(gè)愿望，至少暫時(shí)是這樣。
牛市的出現(xiàn)需要有更多堅(jiān)實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)跡象才行，更不要說(shuō)通貨再膨脹局面的出現(xiàn)了。僅靠經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的"綠芽"是不足以推動(dòng)股市上漲的。周一公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，紐約州6月份的制造業(yè)狀況相當(dāng)疲弱，這自然無(wú)助于股市上揚(yáng)。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed very little time in positive territory for 2009 （a day） and is now busy working to the downside.
Perhaps the G8 finance ministers did their job too well. While not agreeing on a great deal, most ministers pooh-poohed enthusiasm for a quick global economic recovery. Stocks in Asia and Europe took the hint and the U.S. has followed.
While the finance chiefs said almost nothing about currencies, the dollar shot higher. In a world of lackluster growth, it seems the U.S. remains the least bad place. A rising buck socked commodity prices and long-term bond yields have come down. In other words, the reflation trade is retreating, another wish of the finance ministers coming true, at least for now.
The bull case （not to mention the reflation case） requires more concrete indications of growth. Green shoots alone aren't enough to take stocks higher. This morning's Empire State survey, which came in fairly weak, didn't help matters.
責(zé)任編輯：vivien
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