Two years ago， bankers and policymakers were arguing heatedly over whether New York or London was the world's premier financial centre. Amid the post-crisis rubble that covers both cities， those arguments now look terribly passe.

　　兩年前，銀行家和政策制定者還在激烈爭(zhēng)論，世界上最重要的金融中心是紐約還是倫敦。在兩個(gè)城市都受到波及的后危機(jī)時(shí)期，這些爭(zhēng)論現(xiàn)在看起來(lái)已嚴(yán)重過(guò)時(shí)。

　　Financial services will still bring good jobs， revenues and vitality to cities that can attract them. Moreover， history shows that great financial centres confer significant global influence on the countries where they are located. Competition among these business hubs will thus remain intense.

　　對(duì)于能夠吸引它們的城市，金融服務(wù)仍會(huì)帶來(lái)好的工作、收入和活力。此外，歷史表明，重要的金融中心會(huì)讓所在國(guó)擁有重大的全球影響力。因此，這些金融中心之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)仍然非常激烈。

　　Once the global recovery begins， however， New York and London might be vying less with one another than with a new competitor in the form of a partnership between Hong Kong and Shanghai - call it “shangkong” - a highly consequential shift of financial gravity to the east.

　　然而，一旦全球經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇，紐約和倫敦或許會(huì)減少彼此間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而加強(qiáng)與以香港和上海（稱(chēng)之為滬港，即Shangkong）合作形式出現(xiàn)的新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)——這是具有重大意義的金融重心向東方的傾斜。

　　Both New York and London will be nursing serious wounds for years. In both cases， budget deficits will be gigantic， resulting in higher taxes and cutbacks in public investment in the kind of services - transportation， education， even culture - that attract talent. In each city we can expect a big increase in financial regulation， not to mention ad hoc government interventions， adding to the cost and unpredictability of doing business. Controversies about financial remuneration will cause many professionals to seek other types of employment.

　　紐約和倫敦都將需要很多年來(lái)恢復(fù)元?dú)?。在兩座城市，預(yù)算赤字都將非常龐大，導(dǎo)致增加稅賦，削減交通、教育乃至文化等吸引人才的服務(wù)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的公共投資。預(yù)計(jì)兩座城市都將加強(qiáng)金融監(jiān)管，更不用提政府隨意的干預(yù)，從而增加了在這兩座城市做生意的成本和不可預(yù)測(cè)性。關(guān)于金融報(bào)酬的爭(zhēng)論將促使許多專(zhuān)業(yè)人士尋求其它形式的就業(yè)。

　　The status of New York will also be undercut by the emergence of another big financial centre on the east coast： Washington DC， now the world's largest sovereign wealth fund and soon to be the epicentre of world financial regulatory reform. The increased intermingling of politics and finance will create new risks in the US financial system. On the other hand， China will be the world's largest creditor for decades. When Great Britain and the US each held this position， they were the price global financial centres.

　　東海岸另一個(gè)大型金融中心的興起，也將削弱紐約的地位。這就是華盛頓特區(qū)。它如今是世界上最大的主權(quán)財(cái)富基金所在地，很快還會(huì)成為全球金融監(jiān)管改革的中心。政治和金融聯(lián)系日益密切，將為美國(guó)金融體系帶來(lái)新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另一方面，未來(lái)幾十年，中國(guó)都將是世界上最大的債權(quán)國(guó)。在英美各自承擔(dān)這個(gè)角色的時(shí)候，它們是全球主要的金融中心。

　　China owns several of the world's largest banks，all well capitalised. It has a large reservoir of big companies and up-and-coming ones that will be going public on the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges. It has a rapidly growing middle class with enormous savings that will encourage the development of a bigger and more sophisticated financial services sector. Its growth rate is still above 6 per cent （compared with negative rates in the Us and UK） and it will emerge from the financial crisis far stronger that either America or Britain.

　　中國(guó)擁有數(shù)家世界上規(guī)模最大的銀行，資本都很充足。中國(guó)還擁有許多大型企業(yè)和即將在香港和上海交易所上市的新銳企業(yè)。中國(guó)迅速發(fā)展的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)擁有龐大的儲(chǔ)蓄，將鼓勵(lì)金融服務(wù)業(yè)向著更龐大、更復(fù)雜的方向發(fā)展。中國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)率仍高于6%（而美英是負(fù)增長(zhǎng)），在擺脫金融危機(jī)后，將較美國(guó)或英國(guó)更為強(qiáng)大。

　　China lacks the sophistication of Wall Street or the City， but given the mess that complex and opaque securities have caused， a simpler system has its virtues. China will need to free up its currency in global markets， but this has been happening as the renminbi has risen 16 per cent against the dollar in the past year and Beijing has recently allowed several countries to hold the renminbi in the reserves.

　　中國(guó)沒(méi)有華爾街或倫敦金融城那么復(fù)雜，但考慮到復(fù)雜和不透明證券產(chǎn)品導(dǎo)致的混亂，一個(gè)更為簡(jiǎn)單的體系有其自身的優(yōu)勢(shì)。中國(guó)需要在全球市場(chǎng)上放開(kāi)其貨幣，但這種情況已經(jīng)發(fā)生——過(guò)去一年人民幣兌美元升值了16%，而北京最近允許多個(gè)國(guó)家將人民幣作為其儲(chǔ)備貨幣。

　　How could China make a big， dramatic leap？ It could begin by strengthening the links between Hong Kong and Shanghai， and transferring financial know-how from the former colony. The two cities are 750 miles apart， not an insurmountable distance in this age of rapid transit and internet communications. The connections are already being made： Beijing has just declared that Shanghai will be a major global financial centre in the next decade and co-operation between Hong Kong and Shanghai is growing， as shown by recent agreements to work together between key exchanges in both cities. Beijing could declare that Shanghai and Hong Kong will have a common set of regulations and recruit some of the world's best financiers to bolster its regulatory structure - perhaps luring them with an advantageous tax regime no longer possible in the west.

　　中國(guó)如何才能實(shí)現(xiàn)引人注目的大步跨越呢？它可以從加強(qiáng)香港與上海的聯(lián)系入手，向前英國(guó)殖民地學(xué)習(xí)金融知識(shí)。兩座城市相距750英里，在當(dāng)前交通便利、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)溝通快捷的時(shí)代，這并非一個(gè)不可跨越的距離。兩地的聯(lián)系已經(jīng)開(kāi)始：北京剛剛宣布，上海將在今后10年內(nèi)建成一個(gè)主要的國(guó)際金融中心。正如上海和香港交易所最近簽署的合作協(xié)議所顯示的那樣，兩地的合作在不斷加強(qiáng)。北京可以宣布，上海和香港將實(shí)施一套共同的監(jiān)管措施，并將招募一些全球最好的金融家支持其監(jiān)管架構(gòu)——或許用西方國(guó)家不再可能提供的有利稅收制度來(lái)吸引他們。

　　Besides that， if China continues to raise questions about the dominance of the US dollar and the need for an alternative montary system，other countries may have no choice but to listen - and gradually act. An eclipse of the dollar would be mirrored by a rise in the use of renminbi. That would guarantee Shangkong's prominence.

　　除此之外，如果中國(guó)繼續(xù)質(zhì)疑美元的主導(dǎo)地位，認(rèn)為有必要換一種貨幣體系，其它國(guó)家可能別無(wú)選擇，只能聽(tīng)從并逐步采取行動(dòng)。美元衰落將映射出人民幣走強(qiáng)。這將保障滬港的突出地位。

　　The US and UK must understand that， as they rebuild banking system， the vitality of their financial centres is important to growth and prosperity， and also to geopolitical influence. This entails looking at regulation， taxes and quality-of-life infrastructure with an eye towards keeping the most talented people. Unfortunately， powerful political forces are moving in the opposite direction. The Us and the UK could paying a steep price for many years into the future.

　　美英兩國(guó)必須明白，當(dāng)它們重建銀行體系之時(shí)，金融中心的活力對(duì)增長(zhǎng)和繁榮以及地緣政治影響力至關(guān)重要。這需要關(guān)注監(jiān)管、稅收和生活質(zhì)量基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，同時(shí)還要著眼于留住最優(yōu)秀的人才。不幸地是，強(qiáng)大的政治力量正作用于相反方向。美英在未來(lái)的許多年可能將付出高昂代價(jià)。

　　作者：美國(guó)耶魯大學(xué)教授杰弗里·加滕為英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》撰稿