ACCA考試08年6月P1試題答案（3）

　?。╟）Assessment of three risks

　　Disruption and resistance by Stop-the-dam. Stop-the-dam seems very determined to delay and disrupt progress as much as possible. The impact of its activity can be seen on two levels. It is likely that the tunnelling and other ‘human’disruption will cause a short-term delay but the more significant impact is that of exposing the lenders. In terms of probability，the case says that it ‘would definitely be attempting to resist the Giant Dam Project when it started’ but the probability of exposing the lenders is a much lower probability event if the syndicate membership is not disclosed.

　　Impact/hazard：low

　　Probability/likelihood：high

　　The risk to progress offered by First Nation can probably be considered to be low impact/hazard but high probability. The case says that it ‘would be unlikely to disrupt the building of the dam’，meaning low impact/hazard，but that ‘it was highly likely that they would protest’，meaning a high level of probability that the risk event would occur.

　　Impact： low

　　Probability： high

　　There are financing risks as banks seems to be hesitant when it comes to lending to R&M for the project. Such a risk event，if realised，would have a high potential for disruption to progress as it may leave R&M with working capital financing difficulties. The impact would be high because the bank may refuse to grant or extend loans if exposed （subject to existing contractual terms）. It is difficult to estimate the probability. Perhaps there will be a range of attitudes by the lending banks with some more reticent than others （perhaps making it a ‘medium’ probability event）。

　　Impact： medium to high （depending on the reaction of the bank）

　　Probability： low to medium （depending on how easy it would be to discover the lender）

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