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"quantity"exercise:Total probability rule
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Questions 1:
An analysis of US share prices determines that there is consistent underpricing by $0.02 with a p-value of 0.0012. Assuming an average transaction cost of $0.05, which statement is most accurate? The underpricing result is:
A、statistically significant and indicates a possible arbitrage opportunity.
B 、not economically meaningful.
C 、not statistically significant.
Questions 2:
The total probability rule is used when an analyst is interested in:
A、 all potential outcomes.
B 、a set of events.
C 、a single outcome.
View answer resolution
【Answer to question 1】B
【analysis】
B is correct. The underpricing result is not economically meaningful when the average transaction cost is taken into consideration.
A is incorrect. As explained in C, the result is statistically significant. However, there is no arbitrage opportunity in this case because the transaction cost is too high (i.e., not economically meaningful).
C is incorrect. The result should be statistically significant as a p-value of 0.0012 is the smallest level of significance that the null hypothesis is rejected. In this case, it is far less than level of significance of 0.01.
【Answer to question 1】A
【analysis】
A is correct. When the scenarios (conditioning events) are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, no possible outcomes are left out, thereby covering all potential outcomes.
B is incorrect because a set of events does not necessarily cover all possible events and would be calculated using the multiplication rule
C is incorrect because a single outcome is an independent event
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