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El Nino 厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象

　　While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method call predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.

　　Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures．The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature．

　　The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C．Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it “suggests E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”

　　“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method “makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said．

　　The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance．The 1997 El Nino, for example, caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England．The 1877 El Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said．

　　When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone．a(chǎn)ccording to a 2002 United Nations report．

　　While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky．the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed．

　　E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February．The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.

　　The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible．

　　譯文：

　　當(dāng)某種預(yù)報方法限制了提前幾個月預(yù)測1997年厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的時候，哥倫比亞大學(xué)的研究人員說他們的方法可以提前兩年預(yù)測厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。這對全世界各地的政府、農(nóng)民和其他尋求為厄爾尼諾帶來的干旱和大雨做準(zhǔn)備的人來說是一條好消息。

　　研究人員使用計算機(jī)把1980年和2000年之間的海面溫度和后來的厄爾尼諾的發(fā)生聯(lián)系起來，進(jìn)而能夠用更早的海面溫度預(yù)計1857年的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。研究結(jié)果刊登在最新的《自然》雜志上。

　　研究人員說他們的方法并不完美，但加利福尼亞大學(xué)的氣象學(xué)家Bryan C．Weare說這種方法顯示出厄爾尼諾是可以預(yù)測的，盡管他自己并沒有參加研究工作。

　　Weare說“這會促使其他人去尋找更好的辦法。”他補(bǔ)充說新的方法“使在提前很長的一段時間里預(yù)測厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象成為可能。”其他的方法也使用海面溫度，但他們沒能回顧得那么久遠(yuǎn)，是因為缺少其他的資料，而這些資料在近幾十年才能夠獲得。

　　預(yù)測太平洋的升溫和降溫有極其重要的意義。英國Reading的歐洲中級天氣預(yù)報中心的David Anderson說：以1997年的厄爾尼諾為例，它導(dǎo)致了全球范圍內(nèi)約200億美元的損失，在其他一些地區(qū)被良性影響抵消；1877年的厄爾尼諾與印度遭受的季風(fēng)和饑荒同時發(fā)生，導(dǎo)致了印度和中國約四千萬人喪生，結(jié)果刺激了季節(jié)性預(yù)報的發(fā)展。

　　根據(jù)2002年的聯(lián)合國報道，1991和1997年厄爾尼諾爆發(fā)的時候，僅中國就有2億人受到洪水的侵害。

　　然而小的厄爾尼諾預(yù)測還是難以捉摸的，如果新的方法被認(rèn)可的話，對大型現(xiàn)象的預(yù)測至少應(yīng)該被提前一年。

　　厄爾尼諾總是在4月和6月期間發(fā)展，在11月和2月之間達(dá)到高峰。氣候總是在9月和12月之間變暖，并且每2年到7年出現(xiàn)一次。

　　盡管氣溫在年底的時候有可能微弱上升，新的預(yù)測方法預(yù)計未來兩年不會出現(xiàn)大的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。

　　練習(xí)：

　　★1).The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance．

　　B．Wrong

　　★2).The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea-surface temperatures．

　　A．Right

　　★3).The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences．

　　C．Not mentioned

　　★4). Weare’s contribution in predicting E1 Nino, was highly praised by other meteorologists．

　　C．Not mentioned

　　★5). According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1 99 1 and 1 997 affected 200 million Chinese people．

　　B．Wrong

　　★6). It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak．

　　A．right

　　★7). A special institute has been set up in America to study E1 Nino．

　　C．Not mentioned

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